A not so hot week in fantasy-land for FFM players. This week basically came down, for many of you, to whether you had Tom Brady or were facing him. As I've said repeatedly…great QBs change fantasy teams like no other, especially in 6pts per pass TD leagues.
Last week was awesome, in general, this week was pretty coin flip-ish. Critical week to take advantage of those panicking – don’t be a panicker because you lost this week.
The Top 5 Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc. will post later today or more likely tomorrow morning. I might post a working version today just to get the conversations going but change it into tomorrow as I watch more tape and look at more numbers.
For now, here's the instant reaction to Week 2 Sunday, subject to change when I go through the tape fully a second time…
-- The Bears are going to lose to the Steelers next week and then at Green Bay the following week. They will fall to 0-4 and the Mitchell Trubisky watch will be on for Week 5.
It makes no sense to roll with Glennon into the abyss. He'll be released at the end of the season, as he is on essentially a one-year deal. An expensive one year.
-- Tarik Cohen (7-13-0, 8-55-0/9) now has 8 catches in each of his first two games. That makes him very difficult to get via trade this week, for those still searching. However, he had just 68 total yards and no TDs this week… so that takes some of the shine off it.
People who don’t know what they have here might still trade Cohen semi-reasonably if you have a nice fit for what ails your trade partner's team. He's tough to get but not untouchable in some cases.
You want him in PPR. He may lead the NFL in catches this year.
-- It may have been because Kwon Alexander (1 tackles, 1 INT) was ill going into the game, but he only had one tackle and rookie LB Kendell Beckwith made 5 tackles with 2 TFLs along with a PD. This game was out of hand quickly so it may have been a move to the backups early. I'll have to watch the tape.
-- LeSean McCoy will have a rushing tally like this when everyone knows he’s on an all-run team and he’s facing a top run defense. The good news is the schedule ahead for LeSean is pretty nice. McCoy is worth exploring in a trade off this rough week… if any owner is panicking.
-- The Bills passing game is non-existent, so Jordan Matthews (3-30-0/3) and Zay Jones (2-18-0/6) have almost no value in 12-team/16-roster redraft leagues. You can't start them any given week until they prove otherwise. I could see JMatt becoming a Flex option soon, but right now he's bench/waivers-worthy. Long-term, Buffalo will get a new QB and this could be a good duo, but in 2017 they are dying fast.
-- Christian McCaffrey (8-10-0, 4-34-0/5) looked human again. That bubble is starting to burst. He's still very good, but he’s just not an auto-RB1 every week. He's Danny Woodhead more than not… and that's not a bad thing.
-- I'm a Javorius Allen (14-66-0, 5-35-1/6) 'trade high' proponent if I get the opportunity. Baltimore is going hot hand with no preference and Alex Collins will probably nose into this for touches as well. Terrance West is still the lead guy but everyone's going to share and have erratic FF results week-to-week.
-- Ben Watson (8-91-0/8) worth a look? I mean... maybe? The fantasy tight end scene is pretty dicey so targets are good. Joe Flacco tends to lean on one TE, and it was Watson here. You've had crazier thoughts. He's better than Jimmy Graham, I suspect.
-- Corey Coleman week 2… one catch. On seven targets. You can't trust the QB play here so you can’t rely on CC week-to-week. He may have broken his wrist as well.
-- Facing a terrible defense, the Cardinals' RBs couldn’t really do much. Kerwynn Williams (9-22-0) blew his chance. Chris Johnson (11-44-0) led in carries, because of course he did. The Cardinals were missing key O-lineman. You don’t want any part of any of these guys ahead unless an emergency. The Cardinals are terrible and should have lost this game and claimed the second-worst-team-in-football label, ahead of the Jets, but the Colts flopped late in a game they had under control.
-- J.J. Nelson ((5-120-1/7) is turning into the only WR worth having for fantasy from Arizona. He should have had three TDs in this game. One was called back when his foot came down a hair out of bounds in the end zone.
-- Two games in a row where Safety Matthias Farley (8 tackles, 2 PDs) leads the Colts in tackles. He's not a great athlete or future star, but he will hit people. He has to be on the IDP DB radar now: Apparently Week 1 was no fluke.
-- I do not understand how Carson Wentz (25-46 for 333 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) does it. Some QBs have charmed stretches and even seasons… like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Freeman. On Sunday Wentz had a pass bounce off a defender's arms on a Hail Mary before the half and into the arms of his TE for a 53-yard play. I never watch Wentz and go, "Wow, that was great!" It's always "How the hell…?" Eventually, Wentz became Wentz and the lost control of this game. He has great FF numbers, again…and AGAIN in a fluky manner. I'm a total seller the higher his stock goes.
-- Kareem Hunt (13-81-2, 3-28-0/3) was bottled up pretty well, and then he raced through a wide-open hole, broke a tackle and scored a 53-yard TD. He had 28 yards on 12 carries outside of that. Not saying he's a bust. He's good… just living with the FF-angels a little bit. And the football media loves him so he's the current 'greatest,’ wresting the crown away from former 'greatest' Christian McCaffrey. Hunt is fine but he's not THIS good as his two-week numbers have been.
-- They totally shut down Tyreek Hill (1-6-0, 4-43-0/6)… by 'they' I mean his coaches. I'll never understand not getting him the ball in times of need. Fortunately, the Eagles gifted the game back to KC for the win. KC should've lost. Hill got 2016 treatment… no urgency, just sporadic touches. Totally unlike last week.
-- For those with NE-DST questions…the Pats just held the Saints to 20 points at New Orleans. They were up 20-3 quickly while manhandling the Saints offense, and then let their guard down some as they sat on a big lead.
Next week versus the Texans, the Pats DST may project #1 for the week.
-- Brandin Cooks (2-37-0/4) had a dud for fantasy. Our #1 projected WR for the week, and he face-planted. Note – Cooks had an easy score, wide open pulling away on a slant in the red zone and Brady radically underthrew. Cooks had to stop and dive to make the catch a yard short of a score. It should have been an easy touchdown.
The 'almost' TD is little consolation right now after two weeks of disappointments. Be mad, but don't be crazy. Cooks should've had 100+ yards Week 1, and should've had a TD this week on a throw Brady makes 999 times out of 1,000. The Pats are short on receivers and you have to believe eventually Brady-Cooks will click in.
-- Ted Ginn (3-24-0/6)? No more than a WR3/Flex option. I thought he'd have some big plays in this offense, but he's barely noticeable so far. I'm not giving up, but I'm not auto-starting him.
-- Full-fledged controversy at RB for Tennessee now. Two weeks in a row Derrick Henry (14-92-1) runs better/more than DeMarco Murray (9-25-0, 1-3-0/2). I think we're looking at a split/hot hand situation with more of a short leash for how long Murray goes to start before Henry gets touches. It used to be full control by Murray… Now, it will be whoever is playing better. Murray can wrest this back, but he better hurry.
-- You can't get mad at Mariota-Davis-Rishard-Delanie for a dull week…the Jags are arguably the second toughest team in the league to pass on.
-- Allen Hurns (6-82-1/7) is Blake Bortles' Allen Robinson replacement, as we've preached this past week. Next week versus the Ravens, the Jags will need to pass and Hurns is going to get his share. He's WR3/Flex-able.
-- I thought Le'Veon Bell (27-87-0, 4-4-0/4) was very sluggish last week. This week he looked like 90% of his normal self. There was more bounce in his step and more efficiency. He should be back to normal by Week 4, if not next week.
-- The Sam Bradford injury might really be a thing… and cost him multiple weeks. We might get to see Kyle Sloter soon. It's likely too much too fast for him… but I'd never bet against him. Before we get too excited about Sloter, Teddy Bridgewater may make come into play if Bradford is going to be down long-term. Bradford is dealing with problems in the knee he's had major surgery on twice.
All Vikings' offensive projections may need to be thrown out the window and recrafted.
-- The Steelers DST has been great for two weeks now, and the good times continue to roll… Glennon-Flacco-Bortles-A.Smith-Dalton the next four weeks – three confident starts and not so bad versus KC. The Steelers DST is pretty useful until Thanksgiving weekend versus Aaron Rodgers.
-- I know the reality has been that Michael Crabtree (6-80-3/6) has been equal/slightly better than Amari Cooper (4-33-0/5) the past two years in total. Still, I've always push Cooper ahead of Crabtree weekly, annually…because of talent. Next week, will mark the first time my internal numbers will project Crabtree as better week-to-week and rest-of-season than Cooper. If there were a special Carr-Cooper connection… Amari would have been in on this fun scrimmage game. Instead, Crabtree scores 3 TDs and Cooper has backup WR numbers and targets.
-- What to do with Bilal Powell (6-13-0, 0-0-0/2), third best Jets RB? I’d hold him on the bench for another week to see if things change. I have no idea what has happened to his touches. The Jets were getting killed this week… and Matt Forte was carrying the workload later into the game.
Elijah McGuire is nothing to worry about either.
-- Robby Anderson (2-28-0/4)… I'm out. Christian Hackenberg will be playing in a few weeks. Run from everything Jets related. Austin Seferian-Jenkins may have some value… maybe (he returns this week). The Jets are barely worth calling a 'pro' football team. They are hideous.
-- I guess we know who Jay Cutler prefers to throw all his passes to… Jarvis Landry 13 catches/15 targets over DeVante Parker 4 catches/9 targets. DeVante Parker drew the backup CB with Jason Verrett out and looked as mediocre as always.
-- Tyrell Williams (4-54-0/4) had just 4 targets…I'm guessing this entire Chargers' team is something that needs to be flushed and Williams is going down the drain with them. Rivers only throws to Keenan Allen and whatever RB du jour he loves tossing too (Gordon in 2017). Tyrell was lucky Allen was out last year or he'd be something I'd have cried about for the past two years. I've come to terms with the reality: This is Anthony Lynn's sad offense… this is what Philip Rivers always does. Tyrell Williams is on the outside looking in.
-- Hunter Henry (7-80-0/7) bounced back from his no target week last week. In a sea of TE names and desperation, Henry is back in play.
-- Chris Carson (20-93-0, 1-7-0/2) is the rookie belle of the ball now, and this big week will send the people who grabbed him last week into a tizzy. Carson had a good game against the worst run defense from 2016… and they don’t look much better this year. Seattle has no blocking worth a spit. Thomas Rawls exists, C.J. Prosise exists. There are all kinds of alligators lurking in this pond.
I like Carson too, but this is a bad situation… especially against good opponents. Seattle is a plane running out of fuel and slowly descending to earth.
-- The 49ers are trying to give rookie Matt Breida (4-35-0, 1-3-0/2) a nice little push. He could be their Tarik Cohen effort but I do not believe they are committed to that type of role for anyone on the team. I'm monitoring but I don’t see any reason for alarm yet.
-- We'll all be better off just assuming Jimmy Graham + this offense = nothing but a TE2. It's like Todd Gurley last season… how many times did he have to rush for 40-70 yards in a game with a measly 2-3 yards per carry before anyone faced reality? How many times does Graham have to be a nothing in this offense before we give up dreaming of the New Orleans Saints-version of Graham? I'm talking to me on that last one.
Graham averaged 43.7 yards per game the last 10 games of last season, including playoffs. He has all of 9 yards in two games this season. I'm sure he'll have a moment and a TD at some point this season, but it's not Graham as much as it is 'Seattle' and 'Wilson' and 'Bevell'. Like I said last week: Give up on Graham. Get what you can and make other TE plans. He's a TE2 with 2-3 TE1 moments in a year…like 20 other TEs in fantasy.
-- Dak Prescott (30-50 for 238 yards, 2 TD/2 INT) is going to be skewered for losing big to Denver. The media is wanting the Dak reality (of success) to not be reality... going back to last year. Why? I don’t know. I just know they do from everything they write and express. They will use this game as confirmation of what they want/believe.
I see this as Dak facing two of the best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. Just bad luck. Now, the schedule opens up. If you’re a Dak believer – now, is the time to pounce. I like him for 4pts per pass TD leagues ahead for those not with Brady-Rodgers and dying at QB.
-- I noted last week that Trevor Siemian (22-32 for 231 yards, 4 TD/1 INT) had QB2-to-sit-on potential. He'll now be a thing off waivers this week. A choppy schedule ahead, but you can use him on matchups. Maybe.
-- Dak has no one to throw to at WR, especially against good defenses… so Jason Witten (10-97-1/13) has suddenly become a top 5 TE for fantasy after two weeks.
-- It's finally time for Samaje Perine (21-67-0, 1-0-0/1), and just in time to start against a favorable matchup with the Raiders. He's going to split with Chris Thompson to some degree… and Perine didn’t get the work in the preseason he should have for first-team work, so he's a shaky start for Week 3. But the matchup may be too good to pass up.
-- Terrelle Pryor (2-31-0/4) struggling against Trumaine Johnson has some logic… some of the struggle is Pryor dropping passes. If Pryor doesn't have a big game against the Raiders next week, Pryor owners have a big issue on their hands.
-- I want to re-watch this before making a sweeping judgment, but it doesn’t look like Jared Goff is ready for the bright lights. He may never be a star. He can be 'good' but I never see any 'wow' with him. He tore up Indy last week because everyone should. Under pressure this week, Goff was vanilla. He didn’t show any big moments.
I compare Goff to Dak… and it's not even close. Goff is OK, he's just isn’t flashing 'breakout star' to me.
-- Bad secondary + Aaron Rodgers = Ty Montgomery as a strong RB1 candidate in PPR 2017. As top RBs die off due to injury and whatever, Ty has a perfect situation – the best back on a team that will be in shootouts a bunch with an elite QB. His scoring opportunity pushes him to top 5-10 RB status for 2017. Plus, he has no real threat working behind him.
-- Taylor Gabriel is dead money. He's being used as a 1-3 touch a game guy instead of 5-7+ one. We'll see if that changes ahead. But for now, there's nothing here.
-- If Jordy-Cobb are hurt and Geronimo Allison or Trevor Davis get a start…don't get excited. Davis has lightning strike appeal but Allison is just a bad/below average WR talent. If they play they'll see some targets, but there is no long-term upside here.