Whenever I try to take some time on a Friday night for me and the Mrs. for dinner and a movie -- guaranteed football fireworks will ensue.
Instant reaction to the big headlines emerging... (more on all this tomorrow and on the Video Q&A Sunday am)
-- Diontae Johnson...it's great that he's starting and you know how I feel about him, but how fast and how much with Mason Rudolph is a mystery. The 'next AB' stuff had a formula...and Ben is a part of that, and Ben is not there. I like Rudolph, but he likes James Washington. I worry we're all about to get worked up (in a 12-team/17-man roster type level of rosters...and we'll get Diontae now and cut him next week.
There's a million WRs to work with right now. The 1-2 week RB options are starting to emerge via RB injuries. I'm not sure we're going to get quick enough satisfaction with Diontae. The outlook is great...the near-term is a bit of a mystery. I mean...3-4-5 catches for 50 +/- yards per game and 5-6 TDs for the season would be great from his nothing before, but that's the output of many WR3s. Ben not in the 2019 mix stings on this 'next AB' hope.
-- And the whole Diontae thing is also clouded by how many options there are bouncing around. Many are asking... 'Diontae or Dorsett'?
I don't know.
I think we all love Diontae so much, we want to claim him in the name of Rome...he's 'our guy'...we discovered him, in some sense -- he's the sexy play...but it's still, what? 3-4-5 catches for 50 +/- yards per game and 5-6 TDs in a season early on as a pace? You know who will produce that? Phillip Dorsett without AB.
You know who might beat them this week because of the matchup? Devin Smith.
You know who is connected better to Rudolph and might beat them all, but is the least 'exciting' talent...James Washington?
You know who is becoming better than most of them...D.J. Chark, and many passed on that last week (because too many WRs already).
We're all loaded with Sutton-Samuel-ARob-Tyreek-Hardman-Marquise-Kirk...and then we added Chark a lot...we have no room for them all. Curtis Samuel is as legit as Diontae for 3-4-5 catches 50+ yards and 5-6 TD seasons...as Washington, as Dorsett. Samuel more so...but scarier now with Kyle Allen.
There are so many neat options. You know the pros and cons of the options. There is no silver bullet piece of info I have to solve the riddle of carrying 5-6 WRs but you have 10 WRs you want to roster.
In a week, we could be quitting Samuel because of no-Cam. We could be dumping Hardman because Tyreek is back...after Hardman scores 20-30 points this week!
We cannot chase them all.
Lean to the ones with the best QB and highest in the pecking order for targets/opportunity along with talent-level. Dorsett and Diontae are #3 of 3 WR options for their teams. Brady is better than Mason. Sutton is Flacco's #1, but his schedule sucks the next two weeks...but otherwise he's a clear top guy.
Dorsett and Diontae seem super-exciting, but they are WR #3 of 3 for their QBs right now. Be careful. Be optimistic but be careful.
Washington might have the advantage right away with Rudolph, but what if Diontae is too much of a force to be contained...the easier throw as a the slot-type WR working underneath, if he does that more?
We'll drive ourselves crazy guessing. And then we'll jump off a cliff too fast next week based on this one week of results.
-- With all that...we got too many WR options vs. limited RBs options. Should Diontae (in redraft) be your #6 WR or is sitting on Ty Johnson as your #5 RB better...even though Diontae is playing, so ROI happening...and we just have to hope Kerryon stumbles to get anything out of Ty.
There's a case to carry Ty Johnson, Jaylen Samuels, Devin Singletary, Edmonds to backstop your David Johnson and hope (and pray) than getting ANOTHER WR hopeful who likely cannot crack your top 4 WRs most weeks. What's better to carry...long shot RB or stable #5-6 WR with upside?
You can't carry them all.
-- Next Tuesday...a new round of fresh cards will be shuffled and dealt and you'll be wanting to drop Diontae, Ty, Dorsett, etc., if they don't have a big game because Wendell Smallwood happened, or whatever.
There is no obvious right answer. There's only 'best guess', and 'as it pertains to your roster' with a lot of these this-or-that guys.
What's more important to your roster? Do you need someone actually playing...Diontae-Dorsett-Washington? Are you better taking a big swing at a homerun or striking out -- like with Ty Johnson or Justin Jackson or Devin Singletary (if they are the starters in a week or two) or seeing if Diontae is all that?
We got like 3-4-5-6-7-8 legit interesting options for 1-2-3 roster spots.
Hope you get lucky and make the right call at the right time. They're all talented, but I don't know who will be 'the winner' in a week. Could be any one of them.