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Week 3 into Week 4: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
September 26, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)…

5) DaVante Adams – Basically, any week he doesn't have a TD he's a 'buy low' candidate the next week. People don’t believe in him. He's a WR1 candidate with Rodgers…trading for WR2.5 prices. I pray someone says, "They like this Allison kid and may push past Adams." Please God, let a top listened to fantasy expert spew that.

4) Adam Thielen – Nothing special has happened the past two weeks without Bradford. He's been good but not 'wow' like Week 1. He's a WR2.5-3.0 for most people but I think a WR 1.0-1.5 is hiding in there. Thielen, talent-wise, is a WR1…he just needs a QB/head coach to unlock it fully. Pay a WR2.5-3.0 price in PPR. Make the investment in greatness. We're losing Tyrell Williams to coaching. We lost Cam Meredith and Quincy Enunwa. Thielen is the next great FFM answer. People don’t believe and the price is falling as Stefon Diggs has outshined recently. There's room for both.

3) Joe Mixon – Sure, people are talking him up as the main guy but he hasn’t done much fantasy-wise. RB2 value for people today, but we're taking a shot at an RB1 hiding in there. I'm not overpaying here because there is risk with shared touches and bad CINN O-Line. But if I can get him from a jumpy owner so I can see what happens the next few weeks as Cincy dies off into NFL obvlivion…I'll want a look.

2) Evan Engram – Plain and simple – the tight end market is a wild shifting, crazy extremes marketplace with guys constantly getting hurt and having huge games followed by total duds. Evan Engram is quite simply the most important fantasy football player of 2017 and into the future right now.

There are RBs and WRs o' plenty every fantasy year – but there are not tight ends worth a spit entering the league. Evan Engram is the Tarik Cohen/Tyreek Hill changing football tight end of the new millennium. You have to get in on it on the ground floor.

So far, 4.3 catches, 46.0 yards and 0.33 TDs per game – if that's as good as it gets he's a low-end TE1. He's doing that as a rookie out of the box. He also was close to having 3 TDs in Week 2. He was wide-open for another Week 3. He's your one shot to not guess which lumbering Rudolph-Ertz-Kelce is going to get enough targets and hopefully score for you week-to-week. Engram can change the FF-game by leading all non-Gronks in yardage by a TE, plus whatever in TDs.

I might argue today – the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts re-doing them from this summer. It's because 'tight end' and their scarcity. Engram is one of a kind…for now.

1) Tarik Cohen – I have Cohen here again because this is the week the prices came down. I can’t believe how many people are making fun of Cohen as 'silly hot waiver guy last week' in light of Jordan Howard's big game Week 3. As if all Cohen's value is – is the Howard backup/overtake. You know better. You know why he is the apple of my eye. This is the week the fantasy people turn on Cohen as 'Sproles' as the backup/handcuff to Howard only. Him being declared (wrongly) out of bounds on his 78-yard game-winning run changed the entire pricing value this week. Take advantage.

Trade for Cohen-Howard as a package together if you have to. You get the best of both worlds and protection of the other gets hurt. Howard-Cohen backfield may be the smartest dual backfield play in all of fantasy. Start both every week.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Allen Hurns – Two games since Allen Robinson left for the year…and two TDs for Hurns. You don’t have to dump him, but I don't see Bortles seeking him…just in the end zone sometimes. If someone gives you WR2-2.5 value and he's excess for you to get something else…deal him.

4) Sammy Watkins – You don’t have to dump fast. I think he might be OK now…just not a WR1. Someone in your league is a Sammy Watkins secret admirer and will pay WR1-ish prices – I’d deal him to that guy. Jared Goff is not wearing out one option so Watkins is going to have a lot of week-to-week variances, and the schedule is about to toughen up.

3) Jimmy Graham – Had a nice stat line but still looks like a rickety old man playing. I don’t trust Seattle's offense at all. They got smoked here and threw more than usual. Typically, they get in low-scoring slugfests. If you don't need him, use him to upgrade.

2) DeVante Parker – This guy. What a fraud. He was essentially locked down by a backup CB at LAC Week 2 and held in check by the Jets in Week 3. You think he had a great game Week 3 because he scored a TD? The score was 20-0 Jets heading into the final two minutes, and Parker had 4 catches for 26 yards. Against a prevent defense down by 20, he caught 4 passes for 52 yards and scored his TD with 0:00 left. The guy is a joke and will be taken out by anything better than backup DBs from LAC and NYJ. People see him as a WR1.5 because Matthew Berry keeps pushing him, so thus everyone does. Make someone squeal for this skittish, joke of a top WR.

1) Chris Carson – See my SEA-SF recap last week for the full details. He scored a TD on a dump pass to save his fantasy day – otherwise, 11 carries for 34 yards. It's not a Carson thing it's the surrounding situation. You can sell him as an RB1.5 now or as an RB3+ later. You have to act fast. Redraft issue, not a dynasty issue, per se.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) D'Onta Foreman – At some point, soon, the Texans are going to wake up to this…Foreman as the main runner but more importantly – as a real receiving threat. He's going to be the buzz waiver guy of the week soon, I just don’t know when. Sit on him if you can.

4) Trevor Siemian – Need a QB2 'just in case' for veterans letting you down – Siemian had a better game Week 3 then advertised.

3) Chris Thompson – He has to keep making big plays to stay relevant and that's hard to do when you’re a good-not-great talent. He works in this offense as a better Duke Johnson…but could be Shane Vereen in a snap of a finger. I get him to trade him.

2) Rishard Matthews – Odds are Corey Davis stays hurt. And I see Eric Decker is a shell of himself. Every week, I see the same thing with Rishard Matthews-- the best WR on the team, one of the best in the league…as I said he would be six years ago when he was wasting away in Miami.

1) Jared Goff – I'm going Goff over Siemian now because of Sean McVay. I liked Goff as a talent before, but the more I think about it the more I realize McVay is the Kyle Shanahan everyone is looking for. The best offensive mind in the NFL. Ride with that versus Vance Joseph/Siemian if you have a choice. It's not a slam dunk because Goff has been great vs. Indy and SF. We may be a little ahead of ourselves here, but eventually it will be right.

 

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Tyler Kroft – This is what TE life has come to? That's why Evan Engram is so important. If C.J. Uzomah returns, Kroft has his heartlight terminated.

4) Adam Shaheen – High pick rookie TE scored a TD last week!!! He's not close to a real part of this offense yet…or ever. But definitely not yet.

3) Blake Bortles – Don’t even get me started.

2) Ryan Griffin – Had nice work last week with CJF done, but I think Stephen Anderson is a more dangerous TE and Griffing is the typical lumbering guy who will have a moment every few games if forced starting for his NFL team. No upside here, really.

1) Geronimo Allison – I don’t think he's a very good WR. Too thin. Too many drops. Not athletic enough. He'll make a play every so often but not a ton of upside here. I get it…any WR working with Rodgers but this guy can’t be counted on. He's a WR3.5 as a GB starter. Cobb comes back and Allison disappears.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Taylor Gabriel – Just when I give up, he gets the 2nd most targets on the team and scores a sweet TD in Week 3. I love the guy but he was a ghost Weeks 1-2. Maybe, he's caught the new O-C's attention now.

4) Josh Gordon – I think he has a ruling coming later this week. If reinstated (not likely), he would be released and where he lands may shock the world and create sudden FF value.

Or not.

3) Buffalo Bills DST – Those playing in leagues where defenses are tough to come by…the Bills are showing signs of emerging. The schedule is up and down so you can’t ride them but you could pair them up and work them half the rest of the season. This is the leagues #1 defense by PPG allowed and has yet to allow a passing TD.

2) Curtis Samuel – If something is going to happen, I might be a few weeks early here. Samuel got a carry and two targets this week. Signs of the rad usage peeked just a bit. If Kelvin Benjamin goes down…Samuel might become a thing overnight because he has to.

1) Greg Zuerlein – The second best pure kicker in the NFL, and now the #3 fantasy kicker. If you’re worried about the Ravens providing opportunity for Tucker or have any ol' kicker – Zuerlein now works on an efficient offense. He's going to finish top 3 in fantasy this season, I bet. Best long distance kicker this side of Justin Tucker.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Chris Johnson –  I tried to warn you last week…

4) Markus Wheaton – Two targets, dropped one. This guy never answers the bell.

3) Rashard Higgins –  I tried to warn you last week. It’s not Higgins as much as the situation.

2) Chris Conley – I'm not sure Conley has a catch this year, and I'm not taking time to look it up. I just know he's a ghost in this offense.

1) Breshad Perriman – His career is bordering on over. He's going to have to move to a new team for a fresh start. He's talented but the Ravens are killing him off on top of he looks frail and disinterested. Who wouldn’t on that offense?  

 

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LAST WEEK'S ADVICE FOR FUN/CONTEXT…

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)…

5) Tyreek Hill – The great Week 1 is sooo long ago. People didn’t believe in him before and Week 2 will help them remember they have something they don’t know what to make of. A good deal window opened up again.

4) Ty Montgomery – With the top preseason RBs for FF dying off, per usual, Ty is going to make a strong case to be a top 10 RB in PPR this year. His price may be too hot to acquire. Redrafting today, he'd be likely to draw a top 20 ADP price.

3) Joe Mixon – Did little in the preseason. Has looked sluggish in the first two weeks of the regular season. His value keeps dropping. I like taking a look for the price in most cases. Not overpaying but trying to get a fair/good deal. New O-C may want to ride in the BMW instead of the Honda Civic.

2) Brandin Cooks – Two mediocre/weak FF numbers in his Pats debut. He should have had 100+ yards opening week with 1-2 scores. He should have had a TD this past week. I think this kicks in soon and pays off. He was a 25-35 redraft ADP preseason, he'd be like 30-40 now…for valuation purposes.

1) Tarik Cohen – The price is still high and may have come down a tick, but we're a week removed from his hysteria. You might be able to trade for reasonably/fair priced. If we redrafted today he'd go top 30 or so in PPR. If the current owners sees 'Sproles' as = Cohen –then you have a chance. I will keep saying this – assume the owner doesn't know what he has despite all the bluster. Sneak your way into a deal here.  I think he could wind up a top 5 RB in PPR this year.

 

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Jacquizz Rodgers – You got a TD last week. You got two weeks left before JR turns back to a pumpkin when Doug Martin returns. I don’t love the matchup vs. MIN either. Sell now while he has some desperation value to someone.

4) Javorius Allen – The Ravens are hot hand with Terrance West as the lead. I don’t believe Allen is the future of this backfield. West-Allen-Collins will be a cluster you'll learn to hate trying to figure them out. You don’t have to dump Allen but his value is past reality right now, I think. I'd use him to maneuver into a more sure thing RB.

3) Carson Wentz – Two great FF weeks, chunks of which were total luck/flukes. He's not a top 5 fantasy QB…he's not even a QB1. People see him as 'the next' but he's not. Trade him to someone who thinks he's 'the next'.

2) Kareem Hunt – You don’t have to trade him if you don’t want to. He's fine. He's just a top 5 overall in a redraft today, as he would be if drafting today…and won't be a few weeks now – I say cash that RB1 hot value for something special if you can.

1) Chris Carson – See my SEA-SF recap for the details. Not a must dump, but a sell high as the analysts push Carson as the 'it' thing this week because there's not much out there off waivers to get that excited about. Carson to get Tarik Cohen…yes, please.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – He might be the key red zone threat on a team piling up junk time stats. If Jermaine Kearse can matter – so can ASJ.

4) J.J. Nelson – The best WR on a bad team usually equals FF points.

3) D'Onta Foreman – You saw what I saw Thursday night…Foreman is so clearly better than Lamar Miller it's not even close. Honestly, he might be #1 on this list. Foreman will never totally eradicate healthy Miller, but even a split Foreman has value.

2) Trevor Siemian – You know the second you buy this he'll fall back into regular ol' Siemian, right? Still, what else is there at QB? You need another week of Russell Wilson?

1) Samaje Perine – Many of you have been sitting on him anyway, but the excitement level of this moves with how hurt Kelley is. Jay Gruden does not want this, so if Kelley really can go this week…Perine might be #5 on this list. If Kelley out, Perine gets his chance…there may be no turning back for Gruden.

 

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Elijah McGuire – there's nothing here.

4) Rex Burkhead – Starting, but low snap counts and just not as athletic as the rest of the group. He'll have moments as a receiver but he's dying as an RB.

3) Willie Snead – The Saints are a mess and I'm not sure Snead is going to be welcomed back with open arms. He could get lost in this new, terrible Saints offense.

2) Rashard Higgins – Ricardo Louis is better. Higgins is fine but you cant trust the CLE passing game for FF.

1) Chris Johnson – Having the #1 RB for the Cardinals is virtually meaningless in 2017 (DJ excluded). His talent is dried up. This team can’t move the ball and there are several other RBs to consider for touches here. No thanks.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Kyle Sloter – Bradford may be way more hurt/susceptible than they are letting on. If so, you don't think Case Keenum will hold down Sloter? Come on.

4) Rishard Matthews – Will be a nice WR3/flex all season, and possible #1 Titans' WR ROS…and after this week the schedule gets good/better.

3) Kasen Williams – Rashard Higgins? How about the man who made lemonade all preseason for Seattle? The perfect guy for erratic Kizer.

2) Dylan Cole – I don’t usually put IDP'ers in here, but I'm telling you the Texans future at LB is Dylan Cole and he is awesome.

1) Mitchell Trubisky – We're about 2-3 weeks away from me losing my mind. Can you imagine Trubisky v. Sloter Week 5??

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Tyler Boyd – He was supposed to be good, I think? He's been nothing in the NFL.

4) O.J. Howard – Love him, but in this offense in redraft don’t waste the 12-team/15-man roster space. Keep him in deeper formats.

3) Austin Hooper – I told you Week 1 was a joke. He's no good.

2) Robby Anderson – Kearse has pushed ahead for McCown, and ASJ returns. I'm moving on.

1) Carson Palmer – Wow, is it over. He's awful.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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