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Week 4 Handicapping Group Picks: Blazing Five

Date:
September 28, 2019

Handicapping Group Records YTD:

 

Blazing Five:

11-4 = Colin (4-1 last wk)

9-6 = RC (3-2)

8-7 = Skol (3-2)

8-7 = Katz (4-1)

7-8 = Savage (1-4)

6-9 = Rabbitt (0-5)

 

Colin Cowherd still rules the world for the Blazing Five…the master. We’re losing ground to him; we need to cut into this week.

I’ll try to do so by taking five away teams this week!

 

=======================

 

COLIN:

 

BAL

OAK

TEN

ARI

NO

  

=======================

 

NE (-7.0) at BUF

The Computer says: NE by 20.5…Spread Differential 13.5

The Bills scored 12 and 6 points against NE last year…and the Pats defense got mo’ better than the Bills’ offense in the past year. The Pats scored 25 and 24 against the Bills in 2018.

I’m willing to bet the Pats get to 20+ and the Bills can’t crack 10-14 pts in this game. Josh Allen is a turnover machine to aid things and if Devin Singletary is out, the Bills have no run game (and they probably wouldn’t use Devin here either).

 

KC (-6.5) at DET

The Computer says: KC by 15.3…Spread Differential 8.8

If Darius Slay is out, then this is free money. It probably is anyway. Mahomes on turf in the NFL for the first time…only helps the passing game.

 

MIN at CHI (-2.0)

The Computer says: MIN by 5.0…Spread Differential 7.0

The Computer has pointed this out as a best bet from the jump – that the Vikings were going to upset the Bears here. I’m suspicious of that, but The Computer has been hitting a nice percentage of the underdogs it thinks is the real favorite in the game. So, I ride with The Computer here.

This could be the moment that the Bears nation turns on Matt Nagy. They will turn on Trubisky for sure, for the crime of playing another great defense and not throwing for 500+ yards and 5 TDs against them. Let the Bears sink to 1-3 and the Vikes jump to 3-1 and the Bears are about toast for 2019.

 

OAK at IND (-7.0)

The Computer says: IND by 1.2…Spread Differential 5.8

The Computer sees something in the Raiders. It may be an early false read. It doesn’t believe the Raiders are the joke they public thinks. And the Colts are not a super high-end team to give a TD to the dog…right?

 

WAS at NYG (-3.0)

The Computer says: WAS by 2.1…Spread Differential 5.1

The Computer would have this as a best bet if Case Keenum was good-to-go for sure. We’re going WAS but confidence levels wavering on Keenum’s foot.

 

 

====================

 

SKOL: 


CAR +4...Kyle Allen this is your life!  He went down to ARI where he grew up and played HS football and got a win last week...this week he goes to TX (and specifically some time in HOU) to get an NFL win where he played his college football.  Love it.  Also, HOU isn’t great defending the run or pass.


WAS +3...Wish I had clarity on the Keenum injury...WAS offense has put up points with the exception of MNF Bears domination...Giants D secondary has been pretty bad and they may have 2 LB’s out as well.  WAS has played 3 top 10 rush defenses...should help with the drop in class to the GMen.  Here’s to hoping the road teams continue to roll at MetLife this year.


ARI +5...I feel like people were on ARI last week and have now thrown them in the trash after the loss to CAR (who might be really good)...well call me Sir Mix-a-lot...because they toss it, they leave it and I pull up quick to retrieve it.  The last 3 times SEA has played @ ARI they won by 3,6 and 0...and the Seahawks have been a playoff team and the Cardinals have been bottom of the league...I’ll take another tie getting 5 points. 


DEN -3...Ugh, I can’t believe I’m here.  The only DEN home game we have to work with is an almost win vs the Bears.  Jax only road game we’ve seen is a 1 point loss at HOU.  I heard 35MPH wind gusts so I’m getting the better running game and just hoping the Broncos can make 3 mistakes vs the 8-10 that have been shooting them in the foot all year.  Here’s to hoping the home field wind gusts blow Flacco’s passes to his intended receivers.


DAL -2.5...I am being defiant here...every “Sharp” I’ve heard this week is “all over” New Orleans.  I get the Dome Field advantage, but I’ll take the talent on the field in this one.  It’s a big deal to win a regular season game...there are only 16...but I must auto-fade any team that wins one and acts like it meant so much more than 1/16.  From Teddy B’s Waterboy “Thank you for being my friends” speech to Kamara grabbing to mic from a reporter and conducting the interview...I’m WAY on the other side of this Bet.  I think DAL has the Eye of the Tiger to prove they belong in the top teams in the NFC. 

 

 

===========================

 

KATZ:

 

LAR -9.5

One of my favorite plays of the week (obviously). The Rams are undefeated, but they haven't looked like the offensive juggernaut they were last season. Aaron Donald is to going to wreak havoc on Jameis Winston, forcing Jameis into making bad decisions and stupid turnovers. Offensively, the new pass first Rams will remind everyone that the Bucs are not actually a good defense.

 

CLE +6.5

The Browns are bad, and the Ravens are the best team ever (after the Chiefs and Patriots). That's the narrative going on right now. Are we sure that the Ravens are ready to be touchdown favorites against what is supposed to be a good offense? I think the Browns can win this game.

 

SEA -4.5

I am done backing the Cardinals as home dogs. Eventually, their defense forgets how to get stops and Kyler Murray starts playing Madden instead of professional football. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson might be the second-best quarterback in the league.

 

MIN +2.5

All season, I plan to fade the Bears because Mitch Trubisky is really bad at football and Matt Nagy is one of the most overrated coaches in the league. The Vikings will win this game.

 

LAC -16.5

I will fade the Dolphins until they give me a reason not to.

 

Survivor Pick: Chargers

=========================

 

SAVAGE:

 

JAC

PIT

NO

ARI

TEN



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>