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Week 4 into Week 5: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
October 3, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)…

5) Brandin Cooks – I could put him on the 'trade away' list as well. Noting him here because if your team is 0-4/1-3 and struggling with injury, etc. and you're trying to identify guys that some are getting frustrated with but could be a WR1/top 5 guys right around the corner – a 'buy low' guy…Cooks is one. I feel like Cooks is going to pop but it may be in another 2-3 weeks, but might be this week…and then there's no turning back.

4) Tyreek Hill – Of course, he is…even after watching him painfully not be used last night. So, you don’t have him yet (not many reading this are Tyreek-less)? Here's another chance after him not doing much last night. You think he's disappointing? He's the #11 PPG PPR WR YTD…and he hasn't really popped yet.

3) Tarik Cohen – If you didn’t think people were down/suspect on him before…it has been two weeks of mild numbers. A perfect time to strike if you missed out prior. Don’t be upset with the #13 PPR RB in PPG YTD…#8 if he wasn't robbed of that TD Week 3. Trubisky helps not hurts, I think.

2) Randall Cobb – For those who have Davante Adams and are worried…and that's logical. Cobb is smart for Adams owners two ways: (1) In case Adams is out for weeks, Cobb will be the main not-Jordy. (2) Cobb works even if Adams is cool. He's the #15 PPR PPG WR YTD.

1) Evan Engram – Rookie TEs always start slow…Engram is #8 among PPR PPG TEs YTD. Had he closed the deal on one of his near-miss TDs…he'd be #4. A top TE who hasn't really taken off yet. Evan Engram is one of the most important FF assets to own for the future. He works now…and will be an ace in the future. He hasn’t had his moment so still can be had in fair-ish deals.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Christian McCaffrey – Don’t dump. He's a fine RB1 in PPR. However, if you have an ESPN sucker willing to pay good RB1 money and you see a nice swap in it for you – go for it. He's just a man not a mythical creature. He's a PPR RB2 man.

4) Tyrell Williams – The schedule is coming to kill the Chargers. Considering Williams just had a big game – include him in a multiplayer deal and see if someone is willing to pay up in redraft. NYG-OAK-DEN-NE-BYE-JAC-BUF. If NE has their act together in a few weeks, then you have one start for Tyrell the next 7 games.

3) Julio Jones – If Julio is not questionable/a worry in the news on his hip…try to deal him for WR1 value and get away. The guy's numbers have faded away to WR2-land and now this hip issue…I suspect he'll miss time ahead as the season wears on.

2) Jay Ajayi – If I owned Ajayi -- I'm worried about that knee. I'm worried this offense blows and is falling off a cliff. I'm worried that his numbers have been pretty pathetic the last 10 or so games…wild high spikes last year for three games are driving the averages to better than reality.

1) Keenan Allen – For all the reasons listed below with Tyrell…and Keenan is worth inherently more to people. The #12 PPR WR YTD…a WR1…you gotta cash this out before you get torched like when Allen Robinson died on the schedule last year.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Mitchell Trubisky – Look, I think Mitchell Trubisky may be the best QB prospect I've ever scouted. However, I have no idea what to expect thrown into a John Fox regime with no visible WRs, and in a Monday Night Football game against one of the five best defenses in the NFL this week.

If you have a weak QB2, he's a guy to roll dice on.

In dynasty, you should have him already. If not, wait until the MIN game to see if maybe the hype will be pierced a bit. The media wants to dance on his grave so if it's anything short of great this week…they'll talk him down next week.

4) Alvin Kamara – I can already guess what's going to happen here…everyone will pile in off his 10-catch game, and then you have to wait a week off a BYE Week 5, then he has 3 catches for 17 yards Week 6…and you wasted two weeks with him. Eventually, he'll be the Christian McCaffrey of the Saints, but that hasn’t been that exciting either.

3) Buffalo Bills DST – Our 'ahead of the curve' defense last week. Now, it's 'out of the bag'. Dalton-BYE-Winston-EJ Manuel-McCown the next five weeks is pretty sweet except the BYE.

This defense is #1 in PPG allowed this season, #9 in yards per game allowed with 1 TD/6 INTs allowed.

2) Latavius Murray – He will be the workhorse for the Vikings with Jerick McKinnon taking some 3rd down work. The Vikes put a lot of money here, and they'll expect a return now.

1) Deshaun Watson – I'm not sold yet. Beating up the two worst pass defenses in the NFL does not a star make. He hasn’t been bad, but KC-CLE-BYE-@SEA ahead…I suspect he crashes to earth ahead. I'd pick him up to trade him for Jared Goff+ if you needed a QB2…or trade him for whatever sweetness you can extract. Watson's value is to sell off as a QB1 this week.

In 4pts per apss TD leagues, he is more useful.

 

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Justin Hardy – If Julio-Sanu news gets worse, Justin Hardy's name might start popping up (scored a TD with them last week). I go Gabriel full throttle in that case.

4) O.J. Howard – Scored a TD when he was left wide-open last week. No other purposed targeting. It's not time yet.

3) Wayne Gallman – The Giants can't run the ball no matter who is back there. Gallman is only better than Paul Perkins among their 4 rostered RBs. Gallman is not a hidden answer here.

2) Alex Collins – Started for the Ravens last week and is the assumed starter now. As I've said for a few weeks – RUN from all Ravens RBs (and WRs). Every week it's a new disappointment or melodrama with their backfield. Their offense is terrible, it doesn’t matter. Collins is a C- RB talent at best.

1) Eddie Lacy – Whoever sells this as the new post-Carson answer should be shot.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Michael Campanaro – The guy has been ignored as a receiver for 2+ season…while I bellyached the whole time. They'd give him handoffs but no targets. Out of nowhere last week -- 6 targets/4 catches. He could be the Edelman-like WR a dying Ravens offense could use. He's super talented, but can you trust it? Probably not.

4) Deonte Thompson – I think this is the WR Mitchell Trubisky has the best relationship with. I'm not sure it will matter on the big stage because MT doesn't lean on one guy. But Thompson is the best Bears WR and the one with a nice connection to the new QB.

3) Trent Taylor – Marquise Goodwin failed. Aldrick Robinson is a different kind of WR. There's Trent Taylor waiting to be the 49ers' 'Welker'. Ummm…did you know he had 10 targets last week, and a team-high 5 catches?

2) Adam Vinatieri – For those losing kickers on BYE this week…Vinatieri has been boring so far, but the schedule eases up and Andrew Luck could be right around the corner.

1) J.D. McKissic – I don’t know that Seattle has enough sense to do it but J.D. McKissic can be a Tarik Cohen-lite type for them…a guy who can take a few carries but is really a gem WR playing RB. A guy that makes things happen when he has the ball. He's not as explosive as Tyreek or Tarik, but he's a talent. So many other guys in the way I know, but his 2 TDs last week might have opened eyes to the possibilities.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Jared Cook – With Derek Carr out…RUN.

4) Shane Vereen – There is no NYG RB worth owning.

3) Torrey Smith – I don’t know anyone who has him but people are still holding him for some reason.

2) Marquise Goodwin – This experiment failed for the 49ers.

1) Charles Sims – Doug Martin back, so this is over…it has been for a while. He might even get cut.

 

 

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LAST WEEK'S ARTICLE FOR REFERENCE/JUDGING…

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most Cases)…

5) DaVante Adams – Basically, any week he doesn't have a TD he's a 'buy low' candidate the next week. People don’t believe in him. He's a WR1 candidate with Rodgers…trading for WR2.5 prices. I pray someone says, "They like this Allison kid and may push past Adams." Please God, let a top listened to fantasy expert spew that.

4) Adam Thielen – Nothing special has happened the past two weeks without Bradford. He's been good but not 'wow' like Week 1. He's a WR2.5-3.0 for most people but I think a WR 1.0-1.5 is hiding in there. Thielen, talent-wise, is a WR1…he just needs a QB/head coach to unlock it fully. Pay a WR2.5-3.0 price in PPR. Make the investment in greatness. We're losing Tyrell Williams to coaching. We lost Cam Meredith and Quincy Enunwa. Thielen is the next great FFM answer. People don’t believe and the price is falling as Stefon Diggs has outshined recently. There's room for both.

3) Joe Mixon – Sure, people are talking him up as the main guy but he hasn’t done much fantasy-wise. RB2 value for people today, but we're taking a shot at an RB1 hiding in there. I'm not overpaying here because there is risk with shared touches and bad CINN O-Line. But if I can get him from a jumpy owner so I can see what happens the next few weeks as Cincy dies off into NFL obvlivion…I'll want a look.

2) Evan Engram – Plain and simple – the tight end market is a wild shifting, crazy extremes marketplace with guys constantly getting hurt and having huge games followed by total duds. Evan Engram is quite simply the most important fantasy football player of 2017 and into the future right now.

There are RBs and WRs o' plenty every fantasy year – but there are not tight ends worth a spit entering the league. Evan Engram is the Tarik Cohen/Tyreek Hill changing football tight end of the new millennium. You have to get in on it on the ground floor.

So far, 4.3 catches, 46.0 yards and 0.33 TDs per game – if that's as good as it gets he's a low-end TE1. He's doing that as a rookie out of the box. He also was close to having 3 TDs in Week 2. He was wide-open for another Week 3. He's your one shot to not guess which lumbering Rudolph-Ertz-Kelce is going to get enough targets and hopefully score for you week-to-week. Engram can change the FF-game by leading all non-Gronks in yardage by a TE, plus whatever in TDs.

I might argue today – the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts re-doing them from this summer. It's because 'tight end' and their scarcity. Engram is one of a kind…for now.

1) Tarik Cohen – I have Cohen here again because this is the week the prices came down. I can’t believe how many people are making fun of Cohen as 'silly hot waiver guy last week' in light of Jordan Howard's big game Week 3. As if all Cohen's value is – is the Howard backup/overtake. You know better. You know why he is the apple of my eye. This is the week the fantasy people turn on Cohen as 'Sproles' as the backup/handcuff to Howard only. Him being declared (wrongly) out of bounds on his 78-yard game-winning run changed the entire pricing value this week. Take advantage.

Trade for Cohen-Howard as a package together if you have to. You get the best of both worlds and protection of the other gets hurt. Howard-Cohen backfield may be the smartest dual backfield play in all of fantasy. Start both every week.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Allen Hurns – Two games since Allen Robinson left for the year…and two TDs for Hurns. You don’t have to dump him, but I don't see Bortles seeking him…just in the end zone sometimes. If someone gives you WR2-2.5 value and he's excess for you to get something else…deal him.

4) Sammy Watkins – You don’t have to dump fast. I think he might be OK now…just not a WR1. Someone in your league is a Sammy Watkins secret admirer and will pay WR1-ish prices – I’d deal him to that guy. Jared Goff is not wearing out one option so Watkins is going to have a lot of week-to-week variances, and the schedule is about to toughen up.

3) Jimmy Graham – Had a nice stat line but still looks like a rickety old man playing. I don’t trust Seattle's offense at all. They got smoked here and threw more than usual. Typically, they get in low-scoring slugfests. If you don't need him, use him to upgrade.

2) DeVante Parker – This guy. What a fraud. He was essentially locked down by a backup CB at LAC Week 2 and held in check by the Jets in Week 3. You think he had a great game Week 3 because he scored a TD? The score was 20-0 Jets heading into the final two minutes, and Parker had 4 catches for 26 yards. Against a prevent defense down by 20, he caught 4 passes for 52 yards and scored his TD with 0:00 left. The guy is a joke and will be taken out by anything better than backup DBs from LAC and NYJ. People see him as a WR1.5 because Matthew Berry keeps pushing him, so thus everyone does. Make someone squeal for this skittish, joke of a top WR.

1) Chris Carson – See my SEA-SF recap last week for the full details. He scored a TD on a dump pass to save his fantasy day – otherwise, 11 carries for 34 yards. It's not a Carson thing it's the surrounding situation. You can sell him as an RB1.5 now or as an RB3+ later. You have to act fast. Redraft issue, not a dynasty issue, per se.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) D'Onta Foreman – At some point, soon, the Texans are going to wake up to this…Foreman as the main runner but more importantly – as a real receiving threat. He's going to be the buzz waiver guy of the week soon, I just don’t know when. Sit on him if you can.

4) Trevor Siemian – Need a QB2 'just in Case' for veterans letting you down – Siemian had a better game Week 3 then advertised.

3) Chris Thompson – He has to keep making big plays to stay relevant and that's hard to do when you’re a good-not-great talent. He works in this offense as a better Duke Johnson…but could be Shane Vereen in a snap of a finger. I get him to trade him.

2) Rishard Matthews – Odds are Corey Davis stays hurt. And I see Eric Decker is a shell of himself. Every week, I see the same thing with Rishard Matthews-- the best WR on the team, one of the best in the league…as I said he would be six years ago when he was wasting away in Miami.

1) Jared Goff – I'm going Goff over Siemian now because of Sean McVay. I liked Goff as a talent before, but the more I think about it the more I realize McVay is the Kyle Shanahan everyone is looking for. The best offensive mind in the NFL. Ride with that versus Vance Joseph/Siemian if you have a choice. It's not a slam dunk because Goff has been great vs. Indy and SF. We may be a little ahead of ourselves here, but eventually it will be right.

 

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Tyler Kroft – This is what TE life has come to? That's why Evan Engram is so important. If C.J. Uzomah returns, Kroft has his heartlight terminated.

4) Adam Shaheen – High pick rookie TE scored a TD last week!!! He's not close to a real part of this offense yet…or ever. But definitely not yet.

3) Blake Bortles – Don’t even get me started.

2) Ryan Griffin – Had nice work last week with CJF done, but I think Stephen Anderson is a more dangerous TE and Griffing is the typical lumbering guy who will have a moment every few games if forced starting for his NFL team. No upside here, really.

1) Geronimo Allison – I don’t think he's a very good WR. Too thin. Too many drops. Not athletic enough. He'll make a play every so often but not a ton of upside here. I get it…any WR working with Rodgers but this guy can’t be counted on. He's a WR3.5 as a GB starter. Cobb comes back and Allison disappears.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Taylor Gabriel – Just when I give up, he gets the 2nd most targets on the team and scores a sweet TD in Week 3. I love the guy but he was a ghost Weeks 1-2. Maybe, he's caught the new O-C's attention now.

4) Josh Gordon – I think he has a ruling coming later this week. If reinstated (not likely), he would be released and where he lands may shock the world and create sudden FF value.

Or not.

3) Buffalo Bills DST – Those playing in leagues where defenses are tough to come by…the Bills are showing signs of emerging. The schedule is up and down so you can’t ride them but you could pair them up and work them half the rest of the season. This is the leagues #1 defense by PPG allowed and has yet to allow a passing TD.

2) Curtis Samuel – If something is going to happen, I might be a few weeks early here. Samuel got a carry and two targets this week. Signs of the rad usage peeked just a bit. If Kelvin Benjamin goes down…Samuel might become a thing overnight because he has to.

1) Greg Zuerlein – The second best pure kicker in the NFL, and now the #3 fantasy kicker. If you’re worried about the Ravens providing opportunity for Tucker or have any ol' kicker – Zuerlein now works on an efficient offense. He's going to finish top 3 in fantasy this season, I bet. Best long distance kicker this side of Justin Tucker.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Chris Johnson –  I tried to warn you last week…

4) Markus Wheaton – Two targets, dropped one. This guy never answers the bell.

3) Rashard Higgins –  I tried to warn you last week. It’s not Higgins as much as the situation.

2) Chris Conley – I'm not sure Conley has a catch this year, and I'm not taking time to look it up. I just know he's a ghost in this offense.

1) Breshad Perriman – His career is bordering on over. He's going to have to move to a new team for a fresh start. He's talented but the Ravens are killing him off on top of he looks frail and disinterested. Who wouldn’t on that offense? 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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