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Week 5 Handicapping Group Picks: Blazing Five

Date:
October 5, 2019

Handicapping Group Records YTD:

 

Blazing Five:

14-6 = Colin (3-2 last wk)

11-9 = Katz (3-2)

11-9 = Savage (4-1)

10-10 = RC (1-4)

9-11 = Skol (1-4)

9-11 = Rabbitt (3-2)

 

Colin Cowherd still rules the world for the Blazing Five…the master. He may lap the field at this rate. We need to get in gear to catch him.

 

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COLIN:

 

CHI

ARI

NO

MIN

GB

 

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KATZ:

 

CIN -3.0 This is such free money every week. Just fade the Cardinals. If you read my little writeups, you know what I'm going to say. There will be enough drives where Kyler Murray takes a ridiculous sack to kill the drive and the Cardinals can't stop anyone defensively. The game will be close until it isn't. The Cardinals may not win a game this year. Bengals win by double digits.

 

CLE +3.5 I am buying that Cleveland is back. Maybe the 49ers are incredible. I don't think so. They are a pretty fraudulent undefeated team. A quarter of the way into the season and the Browns hype has completely died down. Another road win and it will ramp right back up.

 

BUF +3.0 Easy win last week for the Titans against a laughably bad Falcons team. They return home to face a Bills team that might be starting Matt Barkley. Easy win for the Titans, right? Nope. The Bills' elite defense is going to shut down Mariota in an ugly low scoring win.

 

NE -15.5 They simply can't make the line big enough. The Redskins don't even know who they're starting at quarterback and it doesn't matter. Patriots via shutout.

 

MIN -5.5. I never like laying this many points on the road, especially when it's not against a bottom of the barrel team (the Giants aren't good, but they're not Dolphins or Redskins level bad). However, Daniel Jones is in for a rude awakening against a legitimate defense and the Vikings are angry after their dreadful offensive performance against the Bears last week. The Giants can't stop anyone. Diggs and Thielen are going to smash this week in a squeaky wheel game.

 

Survivor Pick: Philadelphia

 

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MIN (-5.0) at NYG

The Computer says: MIN by 18.3…Spread Differential 12.8

I get a lot of components I like here, and some others must too…as this line has jumped by 1+ points this week more in favor of Minnesota. The Vikings coming off an embarrassing loss with all kinds of controversy swirling – they will be primed this week and face a team full of itself in the Giants and their 2-game win streak and fake/terrible QB Daniel Jones. This is going to be a bloodbath if Garrett Bradbury is active.

I’m playing this for real for sure, and heavy if Bradbury is active.

 

ARI at CIN (-3.0)

The Computer says: ARI by 6.3…Spread Differential 9.3

My confidence in this pick grows by the day. Two bad teams playing, but one is playing with spirit and the other has rolled over. One has a dynamic QB the other doesn’t. I’ll take the team with talent playing with spirit.

 

CLE at SF (-3.5)

The Computer says: SF by 11.7…Spread Differential 8.2

I’ll be rooting for the Browns because I need Baker to take off for fantasy. However, I have to pick the 49ers here – a bye week and an MNF game…plenty of days rest and prep for SF and at home for an MNF contest. The 49ers are playing sound football and Cleveland is erratic and coming off an emotional win. The Browns defense could be a menacing force here, but the 49ers are #1 in the league in the least amount of sacks given up. The 49ers have a dangerous front D-Line to and the Browns have a problem protecting. I think there are too many factors going against a better Browns team eventually…but not this particular week. All the ‘betting factors’ are with SF here.

 

NE (-15.5) at WAS

The Computer says: NE by 21.6…Spread Differential 6.1

Besides the fact that the Redskins are terrible, I think Washington/Gruden will play this game to keep key people healthy for next week – so he can beat Miami and make sure Redskins management loses out on a #1 draft pick opportunity, plus he doesn’t want to lose to Miami. Gruden knows he going to lose so he won’t put players in harm’s way here if he can help it. He’s already on to Miami.

 

GB at DAL (-3.5)

The Computer says: GB by 1.9…Spread Differential 5.4

The more I look at this with Dallas minus Tyron Smith, the more I like Green Bay…I also like GB off 10 days of rest and prep…and I am starting to wonder if Dallas is a total fraud – an 8-8 type team hidden by easy wins early.

 

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SAVAGE:

 

49ers -4 - I think the Browns crushing the Ravens last week is more of an indictment of the Ravens defense than a sign that the Browns are "fixed." The 49ers are the best defense the Browns have seen so far this year, so I expect Baker to continue to struggle to avoid pressure and find open receivers. The Niners are off a bye, the Browns still have injuries in the secondary, and the added bonus of playing at home in primetime. It all points toward a 10+ point 49er win. 

 

Steelers +3 - The Ravens have beaten two winless teams and got crushed by Kansas City and Cleveland. The Steelers' losses are two teams with a combined record of 11-1. This matchup is much closer than the general public thinks.

 

Texans -4 - Matt Ryan has been awful all year and the rest of the team is playing like they're waiting for their coach to get fired. The Texans should be able to move the ball against the Atlanta defense and they should show up focused after last week's showing in Carolina.

 

Cowboys -3.5 - To me, Davante Adams being out for the Packers is a bigger deal than Tyron Smith being out for Dallas. The Packers have no depth at receiver and the offense has been shaky anyway. The Packers have also been unable to stop the run the last 3 weeks so I think Dallas feeds Zeke to help mask the loss of their left tackle.

 

Cardinals +3 - I'm taking Arizona one more time. If there was ever a week for the Cardinals offense to break out, it's this week against a non-existent Bengals pass rush. 

 

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SKOL:

 

CHI -5.5...I think the Bears offense and defense could cover this number vs OAK.  Somebody please price that prop.  K.Mack said he’s had this game circled. 


NYJ +14.5...good numbers for road teams coming off a bye...no Mosley stinks but maybe Q.Williams is back.  L.Falk was thrown into the CLE game then got the Pats on a short week...I don’t think he’s incapable so a couple of weeks to prep should be his best effort and this dud is sandwiched between 2 NFC potential playoff conference games for the Eagles. 


HOU -4...don’t love HOU as a favorite but also don’t get why this line is dropping.  CAR D is very good and ATL D is very bad...D.Watson and friends get rolling here I think.


DEN +6.5...because I’m picking DEN every week the rest of the season. 


SF -4...BYE didn’t come at the best time but SF DL vs the Browns OL is what has me here.  And the Niners offense is fun and great when they don’t end every drive with a fumble. 

 

 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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