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Week 6 into Week 7: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

October 17, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)

5) Doug Baldwin – Outside the top 24 for fantasy scoring among WRs YTD, but is the obvious main guy for Russell. Had a groin issue in one game and didn’t need to work much in a beat down. Was still scuffling the next week. Had two weeks off and if he’s going back to his usual WR1 status… he should have a nice spike ahead.

4) Tyreek Hill – Top 8-12 in most WR categories in the NFL and he hasn’t really gone full throttle yet. And maybe he won’t. Maybe he’ll just be a top 15 WR. But maybe he catches more long-play fire (lacking the past few weeks) ahead and challenges for top 3-5 among fantasy WRs.  

3) Cam Newton – This is a first. Me, endorsing Cam Newton. Those falling apart in 4 per pass TD leagues and have just lost Aaron Rodgers, Cam has been hot two of last three weeks and more importantly is back running the ball. He has 3 rushing TDs in his last 4 games… his last 3 rushing TDs before that stretch was in his prior 13 games. ‘Running Cam’ is the best FF Cam and was money in 2015.

2) Joe Mixon – Need a boost… or death? Looking for an RB that might be ready to take off but has been kinda cold so far in 2017, so he could be available from the impatient? Mixon is a great RB to roll dice on. The Bengals have playoff hopes all of a sudden. Their hope lies with Mixon going next level.

1) Jerick McKinnon – I know, he’s been good, so bad timing to ask, right? Most people are pleased with their McKinnon waiver grab… but they don’t REALLY believe. If McKinnon is getting the main spotlight he’s a superstar. Not “good.” Not a “star.” He’s a potential superstar -- if he can keep the workload. RISKY because Mike Zimmer is unreliable. If you can get McKinnon for an RB2.5 maybe RB2.0 valuation -- hoping you have an RB1 ROS.

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Adrian Peterson – I’m sitting here today and between two short trips in the car and 30 minutes of random TV watching… I think Adrian Peterson occupied 90% of my football media exposure. He’s not that good. The Cardinals faced a dead Tampa team with several LB injuries. David Johnson could be back in 4-5 weeks. Cash out while this is still a big story.

4) Pierre Garcon – Nothing against Pierre Garcon, and everything against C.J. Beathard.

3) Carson Wentz – The schedule is about to get troublesome… WAS-SF-DEN-BYE-DAL-CHI-SEA-LAR-NYG the next nine weeks. You can use with confidence Week 8 (SF) and maybe Week 11 (DAL). Chicago is surprisingly good against the pass, again, this year. If Josh Norman is back Week 7… then this stretch is not good.

2) Nelson Agholor – He’s scoring TDs and that’s the end all-be-all for most people… but TDs tend to be more random. Targeting is more crucial and Agholor is not a top target. He’s gotten a big play in a few games and people are thinking he’s arrived. He hasn’t. A tremendous sell-high because the media is hyping him to the moon.

1) Keenan Allen – Been here for three weeks in a row now. The hour of schedule despair is upon us: DEN, NE, BYE, BUF… if you’re lucky you can use him with confidence Week 8 vs. NE. You know Belichick will over cover him though. I’m just saying if you need to sell high here and can’t afford a top guy to crap the bed for the next 4 weeks.

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Chris Ivory – Obviously, if Fournette is down… which looks less and less likely. Fournette owners are a little pressed to make this move for insurance.

4) Sterling Shepard – Maybe comes back versus Seattle this week? If not, BYE Week 8… then in Week 9 you have an NFL team’s clear #1 WR.

3) Tyler Kroft – I’m beginning to think Kroft won’t be far behind what Eifert was putting up which means he’s a TE1-level guy. As a starter the past three weeks: 4.3 rec., 5.3 targets, 44.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game… and was targeted in the end zone on a few other near-miss TDs.

2) Ed Dickson – I may be getting suckered here but I have to say he looks fantastic… a beast if you will. Hard to tackle after the catch. The last three weeks: 4.0 rec., 5.7 targets, 91.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game, but nearly had 4 TDs in that span. He’s making big plays. I’m shocked and in love… and probably to get burned but maybe not.

1) Jared Goff – Just owned in 20% of leagues… I’m telling you Goff is the next Brady and McVay is the offensive Belichick. The numbers look bad of late because Seattle was a rough game, but he was brilliant. And the Jags are the best pass D in the league, so no crime last week. He’s the potential savior for those who lost Rodgers. You don’t fully believe me, but you will. Just like Dak this time last year.

Waiver names to mistrust:

6) C.J. Beathard – No way. Maybe in a few years he could be groomed to be a marginal starter, but he’s not ready this fast. He played at a boring, low-volume system in Iowa and now is starting in the NFL. It’s too big a leap. The 49ers are trying to lose.

5) Eric Decker – Colts defense allowed a slow Eric Decker to have a night. I don’t see the upside with Decker on tape this season.

4) N.O. Saints DST – Chic pick this week because “vs. Brett Hundley.” Don’t assume Hundley is a pushover.

3) Chris Moore – Played last week because of all the Ravens’ WR injuries. Two things: (1) The Ravens passing game is terrible. (2) Chris Moore is terrible.

2) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Big Ben isn’t putting up big numbers, and his efforts go to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell… just scraps for everyone else.

1) Mike Williams – Philip Rivers is going to throw to only Keenan Allen… and maybe Melvin Gordon. There is no room for a rookie to pop in and be relevant with Rivers. No chance.

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Laquon Treadwell – What I saw Week 6… I saw the first signs of real talent. He has so-so hands but can be a dominant guy physically when he does catch it. If Diggs is down for a bit and Treadwell has moments, you can trade the heat, maybe.

4) Tanner Gentry – Started for the Bears. Worked well with Trubisky in the preseason. He might be the top WR for the Bears… and that may not matter all that much.

3) Brett Hundley – A lot better than people realize. Possible poor man’s Dak to happen here.

2) Aaron Jones – Pure hunch that (1) McCarthy starts running the ball a lot. (2) Jones overtakes Montgomery as the pure lead back. A possible #3 is if Green Bay were to run a spread with Hundley… Jones would be a great fit for that. Possibly he's dropped in some leagues this week. Trade for low on a gamble candidate.

1) LA Rams DST – The Rams take on the #3 (tie), #16, and #3 teams in sacks allowed this season… QBs Palmer-BYE-Eli-Watson-Keenum over the next five weeks. They held their last two opponents at/under 17 points. High functioning offense helps this gelling defense.

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Eric Ebron – Darren Fells has one less yard and 2 more TDs than Ebron this season in much less time, but suddenly Fells has pulled even/past Ebron in snaps. Ebron sucks. He has sucked since day one.

4) Isaiah Crowell – A crappy running back on an awful team that can’t get close to the end zone.

3) Kasen Williams – Once Kizer is back, Kasen’s heart light gets extinguished.

2) Kevin Hogan – Had a chance and blew it. Hue Jackson craves DeShone Kizer.

1) Tyrell Williams – I’ve given you all the advanced warning on ‘my guy’ that I could. The schedule is terrible now and he’s ignored anyway. If you can’t trade him, you can drop him this week or try to get lucky vs. NE the following week…but I doubt you will. 



Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)…

*RB is a total mess right now. One week a guy's the greatest, the next they barely touch the ball. When someone's hot you can't trade for them, and when they're cold they are given away…but may be DOA. Most of us have to keep bobbing and weaving at RB…you think you have RB issues, everyone does to a degree. I'm focused on some WRs this week as RB is a hodgepodge.


5) Pierre Garcon – A top 20 WR right now but feels more like a WR3 lost in SF. Garcon is picking up steam every week as the main target for the 49ers. Looking at quality output at undervalued prices…Garcon is probably the most overlooked, underappreciated top 20 WR out there.

4) Jared Goff – In dynasty, in 6pts per pass TD and bonus leagues…he's going to be a passing ace for years to come in an offense built for him. Trades as a QB2 after his supposed 'terrible game' versus Seattle. The long-term bargain of the week/year here.

3) Sterling Shepard – Sure, everyone will do the math on 'no OBJ' and the importance of Shepard remaining…but he's hurt and not totally beloved. More be-liked. He's got a chance to become a WR1-1.5 when he returns from injury (if out) because someone has to. He trades as more a WR2.5 and is on waivers in 30%+ of leagues right now…if you can steal him to take a look – especially if you're not under any pressure and you can just toy with the current owner panicking and needing players this week and isn't as inclined to wait for Sterling to return.

2) Brandin Cooks – Everyone is crying about Brandin Cooks…he's #10 among WRs in PPG nonPPR. He's 16th in PPR. If he had one more TD he'd be top 12 in PPR. All this is happening as Cooks is struggling to find his connection with Brady. What happens if he does? If you can get for WR2 valuation…he might pop at the right time and turn a season around.

1) Doug Baldwin – Not in the top 24 YTD in PPR, but he's the main guy for Wilson…and that ends up paying off in the end. He had a groin issue that slowed him down a few weeks ago. If you’re looking a WR1 potential in a guy outside the top 24 that can be had for WR2 prices…it's Baldwin.


Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Alshon Jeffrey – He's losing steam as it is, but the schedule gets more unfavorable ahead. Jeffrey + trinket for Baldwin, or Cooks…absolutely.

4) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Everyone is tight end desperate. ASJ just scored a TD and has everyone saying nice things about him and he has a nice schedule the next few weeks. If you don’t need him if he's a TE2 you sat on…and you can flip him as a higher-end TE1, do it. He doesn’t look special to me in the way he's moving around or being used -- and works on a bad Jets passing game.

3) Aaron Jones – Tricky flip here. The hysteria is high, and if you have holes on your team he's the perfect guy to sell as an RB1.5 of the moment. When Ty Montgomery comes back it's a cluster. Ty Montgomery's value plummets because his injury opened the door to a split between him and Jones.

2) Will Fuller – 6 catches, 4 TDs on the season. Yeah, that won’t keep up. I don’t think Fuller will outscore Cooks-Baldwin-Hogan type guys in the end. Fuller has WR1.5 value for some…rare few, but see if they’re out there.

1) Keenan Allen – For all the reasons we've discussed with Tyrell Williams…and Keenan is worth inherently more to people. The schedule is a mess ahead. You gotta cash this out before you get torched like when Allen Robinson died on the schedule last year. He's a sure-fire WR1 value, so trade him as such or keep. You want to slide away from this risk if you can.


Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

*Quite frankly, I don’t care much for the situation for any of these names.

6-bonus) Demetrius Harris – If Travis Kelce is out this week, Harris is a really good TE. On par with Kelce. A one-week rental.

5) Marlon Mack -- People will fall in love because of last week, and then he'll barely touch the ball behind Gore this week.

4) Cooper Kupp – Love the player, not sure I trust the targets 100% ahead. Goff spreads it around, but Kupp is obviously his main guy. 

3) Elijah McGuire – I'm not a huge fan, but the Jets have no other options this week it appears so for at least a week this will be great. I also know the Jets like him over Powell in general.

2) Andre Ellington – Was my #1 until news broke of Adrian Peterson traded to ARI. When AP goes nowhere, and the Cards are down…Ellington will be in on passing downs a lot. He's been a top 12 PPR RB the past three games.

1) Jerick McKinnon – No one's a bigger fan of McKinnon than I am…however, I know there is a 1% chance Mike Zimmer will follow this through. This is Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown last second…but what else is there to get excited about off waivers?


Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Roger Lewis – Will see touches initially, but will be outplayed and forgotten by all the other NYG WR talent.

4) Austin Ekeler – Not a real Gordon handcuff, not a next Woodhead

3) Albert Wilson – Conley is gone but he didn’t matter for FF anyway. No increased touches for Wilson.

2) Orleans Darkwa – In PPR, stay away…he can’t catch. He'll play his way out of snaps because he can’t catch.

1) Mike Williams – Philip Rivers is going to throw to Keenan Allen and that's it…and Melvin Gordon.


Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Travis Rudolph – Love this guy from the preseason andhe's been activated in the wake of all the NYG WR injuries. Read more on him back in our NYG 2017 preseason coverage on our ,com site.

4) Kasen Williams – A flyer that he becomes Kevin Hogan's BFF WR…if Hogan starts.

3) Tyler Higbee – 3.5 catches for 72.5 yards on 7.0 targets the past two weeks. It's something at TE, right?

2) LA Rams – If this defense keeps improving combined with a schedule filled with bad O-Lines…could be a sack paradise ahead.

1) Tavon Austin – Six carries the past two weeks, including a rush TD last week. He's getting a few targets. He might be a useful WR3 just touching the ball 10x a game as a wrinkle not a feature.


Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Tyler Lockett – Lost in a cluster with Seattle. Not useful for FF 2017, even when Baldwin is nicked up it doesn’t seem to matter.

4) Julius Thomas – Man, did this guy's career die quick after his big contract. Some people are still holding as a TE2 hopeful…?

3) Damien Williams – Nothing good happens in the MIA backfield. Not much ever if Ajayi goes down.

2) Corey Grant – Great player, hold in deep dynasty, but the Jags are making no effort to utilize him.

1) Vance McDonald – Barely plays, never sees targets.





Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases)…

5) Brandin Cooks – I could put him on the 'trade away' list as well. Noting him here because if your team is 0-4/1-3 and struggling with injury, etc. and you're trying to identify guys that some are getting frustrated with but could be a WR1/top 5 guys right around the corner – a 'buy low' guy…Cooks is one. I feel like Cooks is going to pop but it may be in another 2-3 weeks, but might be this week…and then there's no turning back.

4) Tyreek Hill – Of course, he is…even after watching him painfully not be used last night. So, you don’t have him yet (not many reading this are Tyreek-less)? Here's another chance after him not doing much last night. You think he's disappointing? He's the #11 PPG PPR WR YTD…and he hasn't really popped yet.

3) Tarik Cohen – If you didn’t think people were down/suspect on him before…it has been two weeks of mild numbers. A perfect time to strike if you missed out prior. Don’t be upset with the #13 PPR RB in PPG YTD…#8 if he wasn't robbed of that TD Week 3. Trubisky helps not hurts, I think.

2) Randall Cobb – For those who have Davante Adams and are worried…and that's logical. Cobb is smart for Adams owners two ways: (1) In case Adams is out for weeks, Cobb will be the main not-Jordy. (2) Cobb works even if Adams is cool. He's the #15 PPR PPG WR YTD.

1) Evan Engram – Rookie TEs always start slow…Engram is #8 among PPR PPG TEs YTD. Had he closed the deal on one of his near-miss TDs…he'd be #4. A top TE who hasn't really taken off yet. Evan Engram is one of the most important FF assets to own for the future. He works now…and will be an ace in the future. He hasn’t had his moment so still can be had in fair-ish deals.


Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Christian McCaffrey – Don’t dump. He's a fine RB1 in PPR. However, if you have an ESPN sucker willing to pay good RB1 money and you see a nice swap in it for you – go for it. He's just a man not a mythical creature. He's a PPR RB2 man.

4) Tyrell Williams – The schedule is coming to kill the Chargers. Considering Williams just had a big game – include him in a multiplayer deal and see if someone is willing to pay up in redraft. NYG-OAK-DEN-NE-BYE-JAC-BUF. If NE has their act together in a few weeks, then you have one start for Tyrell the next 7 games.

3) Julio Jones – If Julio is not questionable/a worry in the news on his hip…try to deal him for WR1 value and get away. The guy's numbers have faded away to WR2-land and now this hip issue…I suspect he'll miss time ahead as the season wears on.

2) Jay Ajayi – If I owned Ajayi -- I'm worried about that knee. I'm worried this offense blows and is falling off a cliff. I'm worried that his numbers have been pretty pathetic the last 10 or so games…wild high spikes last year for three games are driving the averages to better than reality.

1) Keenan Allen – For all the reasons listed below with Tyrell…and Keenan is worth inherently more to people. The #12 PPR WR YTD…a WR1…you gotta cash this out before you get torched like when Allen Robinson died on the schedule last year.


Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Mitchell Trubisky – Look, I think Mitchell Trubisky may be the best QB prospect I've ever scouted. However, I have no idea what to expect thrown into a John Fox regime with no visible WRs, and in a Monday Night Football game against one of the five best defenses in the NFL this week.

If you have a weak QB2, he's a guy to roll dice on.

In dynasty, you should have him already. If not, wait until the MIN game to see if maybe the hype will be pierced a bit. The media wants to dance on his grave so if it's anything short of great this week…they'll talk him down next week.

4) Alvin Kamara – I can already guess what's going to happen here…everyone will pile in off his 10-catch game, and then you have to wait a week off a BYE Week 5, then he has 3 catches for 17 yards Week 6…and you wasted two weeks with him. Eventually, he'll be the Christian McCaffrey of the Saints, but that hasn’t been that exciting either.

3) Buffalo Bills DST – Our 'ahead of the curve' defense last week. Now, it's 'out of the bag'. Dalton-BYE-Winston-EJ Manuel-McCown the next five weeks is pretty sweet except the BYE.

This defense is #1 in PPG allowed this season, #9 in yards per game allowed with 1 TD/6 INTs allowed.

2) Latavius Murray – He will be the workhorse for the Vikings with Jerick McKinnon taking some 3rd down work. The Vikes put a lot of money here, and they'll expect a return now.

1) Deshaun Watson – I'm not sold yet. Beating up the two worst pass defenses in the NFL does not a star make. He hasn’t been bad, but KC-CLE-BYE-@SEA ahead…I suspect he crashes to earth ahead. I'd pick him up to trade him for Jared Goff+ if you needed a QB2…or trade him for whatever sweetness you can extract. Watson's value is to sell off as a QB1 this week.

In 4pts per pass TD leagues, he is more useful.


Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Justin Hardy – If Julio-Sanu news gets worse, Justin Hardy's name might start popping up (scored a TD with them last week). I go Gabriel full throttle in that case.

4) O.J. Howard – Scored a TD when he was left wide-open last week. No other purposed targeting. It's not time yet.

3) Wayne Gallman – The Giants can't run the ball no matter who is back there. Gallman is only better than Paul Perkins among their 4 rostered RBs. Gallman is not a hidden answer here.

2) Alex Collins – Started for the Ravens last week and is the assumed starter now. As I've said for a few weeks – RUN from all Ravens RBs (and WRs). Every week it's a new disappointment or melodrama with their backfield. Their offense is terrible, it doesn’t matter. Collins is a C- RB talent at best.

1) Eddie Lacy – Whoever sells this as the new post-Carson answer should be shot.


Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Michael Campanaro – The guy has been ignored as a receiver for 2+ season…while I bellyached the whole time. They'd give him handoffs but no targets. Out of nowhere last week -- 6 targets/4 catches. He could be the Edelman-like WR a dying Ravens offense could use. He's super talented, but can you trust it? Probably not.

4) Deonte Thompson – I think this is the WR Mitchell Trubisky has the best relationship with. I'm not sure it will matter on the big stage because MT doesn't lean on one guy. But Thompson is the best Bears WR and the one with a nice connection to the new QB.

3) Trent Taylor – Marquise Goodwin failed. Aldrick Robinson is a different kind of WR. There's Trent Taylor waiting to be the 49ers' 'Welker'. Ummm…did you know he had 10 targets last week, and a team-high 5 catches?

2) Adam Vinatieri – For those losing kickers on BYE this week…Vinatieri has been boring so far, but the schedule eases up and Andrew Luck could be right around the corner.

1) J.D. McKissic – I don’t know that Seattle has enough sense to do it but J.D. McKissic can be a Tarik Cohen-lite type for them…a guy who can take a few carries but is really a gem WR playing RB. A guy that makes things happen when he has the ball. He's not as explosive as Tyreek or Tarik, but he's a talent. So many other guys in the way I know, but his 2 TDs last week might have opened eyes to the possibilities.


Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Jared Cook – With Derek Carr out…RUN.

4) Shane Vereen – There is no NYG RB worth owning.

3) Torrey Smith – I don’t know anyone who has him but people are still holding him for some reason.

2) Marquise Goodwin – This experiment failed for the 49ers.

1) Charles Sims – Doug Martin back, so this is over…it has been for a while. He might even get cut.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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