Blazing Five YTD:
19-11 (63.3%) = Colin (1-4 last wk)
16-13-1 (55.2%) = Savage (2-3)
16-14 (53.3%) = RC (1-4)
15-15 (50.0%) = Katz (1-4)
14-16 (46.7%) = Skol (2-3)
14-15 (48.3%) = Rabbitt (2-2)
Colin went 1-4, which is rare. Most top bettors I know got whacked last week. Either the NFL is changing trends or last week was an aberration. I’m sticking by it was just an aberration week. Let’s get back on the winning ways…my 5-0 Week 5 feels like a million years ago.
PHI, BAL, LAR, IND, NYG
JAX (-4.0) at CIN
The Computer says: JAX by 18.9…Spread Differential 14.9
Cincinnati is missing O-Lineman and two starting CBs…plus, they’re terrible. This has to be ‘Jacksonville crush’. The line is down, I think, because Minshew had an off week last week. Minshew is fine.
PHI at DAL (-2.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 11.0…Spread Differential 13.5
I’m not sure I buy the Dallas injury report that everyone is magically playing, even if they are…I like Philly in this spot because I don’t trust Dallas at all to play well in a big spot.
SF (-9.5) at WAS
The Computer says: SF by 19.7…Spread Differential 10.2
This is becoming my personal favorite bet of the week – with this angle…Kyle Shanahan hates the Washington Redskins for what they did to his dad there years ago. I think Kyle will not back off this moment at Washington. Plus, they are a thousand times better than Washington anyway.
HOU at IND (-1.0)
The Computer says: IND by 9.3…Spread Differential 8.4
Everything about this just makes sense as a bettor…Houston overhyped off two high-scoring wins against bad defenses and Indy solid off a BYE week rest/prep.
LAR (-3.0) at ATL
The Computer says: LAR by 8.6…Spread Differential 5.6
I like the momentum of Jalen Ramsey now expected to play. Rams management sent a message that they’re in it to win it. I think the team rallies up here vs. a dead Falcons team.
Two games The Computer likes better but I am not using Blazing Five…
BAL at SEA (-3.0)
The Computer says: BAL by 6.5…Spread Differential 9.5
Everything makes sense for Baltimore, but I guess I’ve been burned at every turn trying to outguess ‘lucky’ Seattle. Russell is too great, and I don’t trust Lamar Jackson.
LAC at TEN (-2.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 6.4…Spread Differential 8.9
This one freaks me out. The Computer is so sure, but I watch LAC and they are a joke. Tennessee is a joke with a defense, and LAC is just a joke all over. New QB for Tennessee we don’t know how they respond. I’ll pass for the B5.
IND -1...I think we’re getting the better team at home. HOU can put on a show if you count to 7 MISSISSIPPI before rushing Watson...and all week I hear people quoting season long IND avg/poor defensive numbers...well they get 2/3 great players back this week so...
MIN -1.5...Let’s start at the start...Vikings only want to run the ball and DET is at the bottom of the league in defensive rushing success rate (24th). Beat up Cousins for his record in big games but Stafford being measured by the same metrics makes Kirk look like Joe Montana. Vikes get to 1-2 in the division.
JAX -4...road favorite doesn’t seem to be what it used to be. I think JAX is the far superior team and Minshew’s bad game was a result of playing the best defense he’s seen in his life. Chark goes off and we get a cover here.
SF -9.5...SF fans are fired up and they are everywhere including the nations capital...I think the Niners get them home crowd and while I get the fear of a let down I’m going to wait a week or 2 before betting on it. Shanahan has some redemption to seek for how his Dad was treated...
PHI +2.5...I know the secondary is beat up but I think this team is getting killed for losing at MIN...I have news...pretty much everyone loses at MIN. DAL has many issues and among them is a lack of home field advantage. I’ll roll with Philly to take care of business here.
Vikings -1.5 - Matt Stafford has only scored 20 or more points twice in 10 games against the Mike Zimmer Vikings, and one of those games was a Lions loss. Zimmer also swept his two matchups with Matt Patricia last year. I think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and they need to win this game to keep pace in the NFC north, so I think they will.
Titans -2.5 - This is a good matchup for the Titans, playing a team that can't stop the run and can't protect their QB. The Titans' QB change should provide a bit of a boost in the short term, even if Tannehill isn't any better than Mariota in the long term.
Packers -5 - I think the Raiders are a bit overvalued at this point. Beating a backup QB in another country doesn't suddenly make them a playoff team. Losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison is a good thing for the Packers offense, so I think we see a nice game from Rodgers.
Falcons +3 - I wonder what the Rams and Falcons records would be right now if they'd swapped schedules before the season. You could make the case that they'd both be 2-4 right now and then maybe the Falcons are a small favorite in this game. The line implies the Rams would be a 9 point favorite at home and that seems ridiculous given how mediocre they've played all year.
Giants -3 - I still like the Cardinals but this seems like a flat spot for them after two straight wins. What's being overshadowed in the Cardinals back-to-back wins is that they blew huge leads in both games and that's eventually going to burn them. I think the Giants with extra rest can win this game.