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Week 7 into Week 8: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
October 24, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Cam Newton – Again, here for another week…and for the same, specific reason: If your team is scuffling at 2-5/3-4 and you are having issues at QB in a 4pts per pass TD league – this is a guy to throw a Hail Mary on. He’s back to running, a lot, of late and he can change fantasy teams with his feet. Last five weeks of fantasy rushing points, before passing…7.6, 10.4, 0.0, 13.1, 5.0. TB-ATL-MIA next three games to aid with the passing numbers. Dice roll on magic…or certain death, if you need it.

4) Jerick McKinnon – Everyone is going to rush off to Latavius Murray because ‘recent TD’ and ‘starter’ but McKinnon played more snaps than Murray this past week, and has been far superior to Latavius for weeks. People don’t trust McKinnon…I do, just not Mike Zimmer. If you can get JMK for RB2-2.5 value – do it. There will be panic on him this week for sure.

3) Leonard Fournette – Hear me out… Missed last week. On a BYE this week. Fantasy GMs have short-term memories…even on great players. Out of sight, out of mind. A team might be desperate right now and willing to trade the kingdom for a bowl of soup today. Fournette is as good as it gets and this will be as cheap as he could be the rest of the season. Redraft or dynasty this might be a window where you sell only half your soul to get him. Soon, he’ll be untouchable. He might still be. But, perhaps this one particular week…

2) Doug Martin – A running back getting all the touches is worth their weight in gold. No one in fantasy trusts or likes Tampa Bay and they aren’t ever in love that much with Martin. His numbers have been OK, not great. Sometimes he comes easily/cheap. A definitive #1 RB for his team with a pretty ncie schedule ahead. It’s worth something.

1) Chris Hogan – The Davante Adams of 2017…the guy everyone doesn’t trust/disrespects and all they do is score TDs week-after-week. Hogan hasn’t scored in two weeks so national panic is occurring. “I knew he couldn’t keep this up” is the tape playing in his current owner’s head – take advantage. Current owner will want WR2 value but you might squeeze them for a near WR3 valuation…flip your hot of the moment thing for Hogan. Hogan + Brady = TDs. 10+ TDs this year.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Will Fuller/Nelson Agholor – They’ve been great but I see them going for WR1.5/strong 2.0 valuations…I’ll sell into that for sure. These are low target, mediocre talent WRs cashing in on a nice TD stretch…and it may keep up a la a Donte Moncrief or Brandon LaFell type of run…but eventually they fall and without a TD they have little catch and yardage numbers to help support you week-to-week.

4) Jimmy Graham – Back-to-back TDs the past two weeks and his name value are worth something. You can get guys producing like Graham off waivers in many leagues (Kroft, etc.). If someone loves the name and sees salvation – make them pay if you have another TE in your back pocket.

3) DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry – A lot of people hold them together. Try to deal them as a package or if you have one – deal that one. This duo looks terrible this season but they do get touches and have some FF numbers. They’re on a BYE so it might not be wise until next week. Don’t play an upswing on them…play the flop if you can get someone interested for RB2 valuation on Murray.

2) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Is on a hot streak of TDs somewhat pushed by level of opponent. I don’t see any reason for excitement here once the schedule stiffens ahead. People seem to be intrigued with this name – sell into it if you have another TE to work with.

1) Stefon Diggs – Once he is cleared to play, people will feel better about acquiring…maybe. They would also see he’s a top 10 fantasy WR. If you can get WR1-1.5 value out of him, I’d flip him betting against Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater able to make this passing game hot. Diggs had a sweet start  to 2017 and left with injury before the Vikings offense fell off. We’re trying to time the market on him if anyone is buying it hot/believes his top 10 rank among WRs in PPG so far.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Latavius Murray – I’m not convinced that Murray is ‘the guy’ now because of his one good week. I’d get him to sell him to the highest bidder/McKinnon owner. Or if you have McKinnon you have more interest in this. Be wary.

4) Kenny Stills – Stills + Matt Moore = a good thing, and the schedule of BAL-OAK-CAR-TB-NE helps. I would go too crazy because DeVante Parker returns and takes an edge off this. Don’t push hard at all here unless WR desperate right now.

3) Ted Ginn – I’d rather you have Ginn…a sustainable WR2 that everyone ditched to start 2017, including his biggest proponent…me. But come back to your first love. The guy is tracking WR2 numbers YTD…and has several near-miss/down at the one TDs…he’s could be a shocking top 15 WR this season, seriously.

2) Tyler Kroft – If you have Engram as TE1, ASJ or Graham as TE2, you pick up Kroft and sell ASL or Graham. Kroft is Tyler Eifert. Three TDs in the past three games.

1) Sterling Shepard – Looking for a shot at team’s #1 WR but available on waivers or in trade as a WR3 valuation…here it is. I’m not sure Eli can make this happen, but I willing to pay a bit to take a look. He’s on a BYE this week so sit on him resting/healing for a week and you might wake up with a PPR WR1.5 for the ROS in two weeks.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Dede Westbrook – I see a lot of chatter that he’s coming back… Who cares? Keelan Cole is well ahead of Westbrook. No Jags’ WRs matter for fantasy anyway.

4) Deonte Thompson – 100+ yards in his Bills’ debut…but don’t trust WRs related to this Bills’ offense.

3) Demarcus Robinson – The Tony Romo special…he tried to make a superstar on TNF for making some basic catches. Robinson is solid but the non-Tyreek WRs for KC are fantasy death. Anyone remember Chris Conley?

2) O.J. Howard – People want to love him, I want to love him…and he’s seeing some better targets but not ‘center of the offense’ type ones. He’s getting TDs on misdirection plays and ignored in the red zone for Cam Brate. I don’t trust sustainability is here yet. I don’t see evidence on tape. I love what’s possible but I think we’re at least a year away from consistency.

1) DeAndre Washington – If I had to play one of these RBs for a week while Lynch was out…I’d go Jalen Richard but really I like neither. Mediocre RBs with a suddenly bad O-Line facing Buffalo? No thanks.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

6) Josh Doctson – Terrelle Pryor died Week 7, R.I.P. The Redskins #1 receiver is Chris Thompson…and then it’s Jordan Reed…and then it’s Vernon Davis…but after that their new #1 WR is Josh Doctson (maybe, battling Ryan Grant for that honor). Get on the train early. Possible WR3 happening now with upside…but the Skins aren’t throwing to WRs much at all. We forget how talented Doctson is because he’s been lost for a season+.

5) Kenny Golladay – If Golden Tate is out longer than a week or two, Golladay may be a shock to the system upon his return. Marvin Jones will see primary coverage and the Lions have PIT-GB-CLE ahead. No Tate for GB-CLE would be $$$ for Golladay, I think.

4) Patriots DST – Ummm…14-17-7 points allowed the past three games. The ‘terrible’ Pats defense is getting healthy and adjusting, behind a defensive mastermind in Belichick. Rivers-BYE-Siemian-Carr-Moore/Cutler-Tyrod-Moore/Cutler the next six weeks.

3) Tarik Cohen – Played only 7 snaps last week…all as a WR. On those 7 snaps, 3 official targets and one lost to penalty. When he gets in they are trying to get him touches…this pastw eek was just odd due to the ‘game flow’. I see the Bears trying to figure this out. If they do…if they mimic Tyreek Hill, which I saw them trying to do this past week – this is going to be sweet. Don’t give up yet.

2) Greg Zuerlein – People will cut him this week because ‘BYE’ and ‘rostering two kickers is dumb’. I’ll roster two…I’ll hold Z for a week and then ride him the rest of the season. The leagues 2nd best kicker on the best offense in the NFL…you want in on that for no cost.

1) Jared Goff – Still like 25% owned in normal-sized leagues. He’s sitting #14 in 4pts per pass TD scoring PPG this season among QBs…and will soon push into the top 12. An emerging QB on the best offense in the NFL…you want in on that for almost no cost. You want him as a QB2 to play on matchups or a possible straight starter if he gets hot.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Jamison Crowder – I never bought in this year. Some people are still starting him…why?

4) Terrelle Pryor – I did buy in here and get scorched. Benched by Gruden Week 7. Confidence has been rattled. He looks lost. You might keep him just in case they trade him to Chicago or the Jets.

3) Cole Beasley – Had a nice game a few weeks ago, but has been totally ignored otherwise by Dak.

2) Antonio Gates – I think he’s officially done as a thing for the Chargers. Every time you try to bury him he raises up…but not this time. I think he’s done.

1) Mike Gillislee – Hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2. Hasn’t seen a target. He’s the Ryan Matthews or Jeremy Hill of 2017.

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LAST WEEK'S ARTICLE...

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Doug Baldwin – Outside the top 24 for fantasy scoring among WRs YTD, but is the obvious main guy for Russell. Had a groin issue in one game and didn’t need to work much in a beat down. Was still scuffling the next week. Had two weeks off and if he’s going back to his usual WR1 status…he should have a nice spike ahead.

4) Tyreek Hill – Top 8-12 in most WR categories in the NFL…and hasn’t really gone full throttle yet…and maybe he won’t. Maybe he’ll just be a top 15 WR. But MAYBE he catches similar long-play fire (lacking the past few weeks) ahead and challenges for top 3-5 among fantasy WRs. 

3) Cam Newton – This is a first…me, endorsing Cam Newton. Those falling apart in 4pers per pass TD leagues and you just lost Aaron Rodgers – Cam has been hot two of last three weeks but more importantly is back running the ball. He has 3 rushing TDs in his last 4 games…his last 3 rushing TDs before that stretch was in his prior 13 games. ‘Running Cam’ is the best FF Cam…and was money in 2015.

2) Joe Mixon – Need a boost…or death? Looking for an RB that might be ready to take off but has been kinda cold so far in 2017, so he could be available from the impatient – he’s a great RB to roll dice on. The Bengals have playoff hopes all of a sudden. Their hope lies with Mixon going next level.

1) Jerick McKinnon – I know, he’s been good…so bad timing to ask, right? Most people are pleased with their McKinnon waiver grab…but they don’t REALLY believe. If McKinnon is getting the main spotlight – he’s a super star…not ‘good’ and not a ‘star’…he’s a superstar.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Adrian Peterson – I’m sitting here today and between two short trips in the car and 30 minutes random TV watching…I think Adrian Peterson occupied 90% of my football media exposure. He’s not that good. The Cardinals faced a dead Tampa team with several LB injuries. David Johnson could be back in 4-5 weeks. Cash out while this is still ‘a big story’.

4) Pierre Garcon – Nothing against Pierre Garcon, and everything against C.J. Beathard.

3) Carson Wentz – The schedule is about to get troublesome…WAS-SF-DEN-BYE-DAL-CHI-SEA-LAR-NYG the next nine weeks. You can use with confidence Week 8 (SF) and maybe Week 11 (DAL). Chicago is surprisingly good against the pass, again, this year. If Josh Norman is back Week 7…then this stretch is not good.

2) Nelson Agholor – He’s scoring TDs and that’s the end all-be all for most people…but TDs tend to be more random. Targeting is more crucial in some sense and Agholor is not a top target. He’s gotten a big play in a few games and people are thinking he’s arrived. He hasn’t. A tremendous sell-high because the media is hyping him to the moon.

1) Keenan Allen – Been here for three weeks in a row now. The hour of schedule despair is upon us – DEN, NE, BYE, BUF…if you’re lucky you can use him with confidence Week 8 vs. NE. You know Belichick will over cover him though. I’m just saying if you need to sell high here and can’t afford a top guy to crap the bed for the next 4 weeks.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Chris Ivory – Obviously, if Fournette is down…which looks less and less likely. Fournette owners have to make this move for insurance.

4) Sterling Shepard – Maybe comes back versus Seattle this week? If not, BYE Week 8…then in Week 9 you have an NFL team’s clear #1 WR.

3) Tyler Kroft – I’m beginning to think Kroft won’t be far behind what Eifert was putting up – which means a TE1-level guy. As a starter the past three weeks: 4.3 rec., 5.3 targets, 44.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…and was targeted in the end zone on a few other near-miss TDs.

2) Ed Dickson – I may be getting suckered here but I have to say he looks fantastic…a ‘beast’ if you will. Hard to tackle after the catch. The last three weeks: 4.0 rec., 5.7 targets, 91.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…but nearly had 4 TDs in that span. He’s making big plays. I’m shocked and in love…and probably to get burned but maybe not.

1) Jared Goff – Just owned in 20% of leagues…I’m telling you Goff is the next Brady and McVay is the offensive Belichick. Numbers look bad of late because Seattle was a rough game, but he was brilliant. And the Jags are the best pass D in the league, no crime last week. He’s the potential savior for those who lost Rodgers. You don’t fully believe me, but you will. Just like Dak this time last year.

 

Waiver names to mistrust:

6) C.J. Beathard – No way. Maybe in a few years he could be groomed to be a marginal starter, but he’s not ready this fast – he played at a boring, low-volume system in Iowa and now is starting in the NFL. It’s too big a leap. The 49ers are trying to lose.

5) Eric Decker – Colts defense allowed a slow Eric Decker to have a night. I don’t see the upside with Decker on tape this season.

4) N.O. Saints DST – Chic pick this week because ‘vs. Brett Hundley’. Don’t assume Hundley is a pushover.

3) Chris Moore – Played last week because of all the Ravens’ WR injuries. Two things: (1) The Ravens passing game is terrible. (2) Chris Moore is terrible.

2) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Big Ben isn’t putting up big numbers, and his efforts go to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell…and scraps for everyone else.

1) Mike Williams – Philip Rivers is going to throw to Keenan Allen and that's it…and Melvin Gordon. There is no room for a rookie to pop in and be relevant with Rivers…no chance.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Laquon Treadwell – What I saw Week 6…I saw the first signs of real talent. He has so-so hands but can be a dominant guy physically when he does catch it. If Diggs is down for a bit and Treadwell has moments…you can trade the heat, maybe.

4) Tanner Gentry – Started for the Bears. Worked well with Trubisky in the preseason. He might be the top WR for the Bears…and that may not matter all that much.

3) Brett Hundley – A lot better than people realize. Possible poor man’s Dak to happen here.

2) Aaron Jones – Pure hunch that (1) McCarthy starts running the ball a lot. (2) Jones overtakes Montgomery as the pure lead back. A possible #3 is if Green Bay were to run a spread with Hundley…then Jones would be a great fit for that.

1) LA Rams DST – The Rams take on the #3 (tie), #16, and #3 teams in sacks allowed this season…QBs Palmer-BYE-Eli-Watson-Keenum over the next five weeks. Held last two opponents at/under 17 points. High functioning offense helps this gelling defense.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Eric Ebron – Darren Fells has one less yard and 2 more TDs than Ebron this season…in much less time, but suddenly Fells pulled even/past Ebron in snaps. Ebron sucks, he has sucked since day one.

4) Isaiah Crowell – A crappy running back on an awful team that can’t get close to the end zone normally.

3) Kasen Williams – Once Kizer is back, Kasen’s heart light gets extinguished.

2) Kevin Hogan – Had a chance…blew it and Hue Jackson craves DeShone Kizer.

1) Tyrell Williams – I’ve given you all the advanced warning on ‘my guy’ that I could. The schedule is terrible now and he’s ignored anyway. If you can’t trade him, you can drop him this week or try to get lucky vs. NE the following week…but I doubt it.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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