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Week 7: Should I Start or Sit  ____? KC at Denver TNF

Date:
October 17, 2019

Week 7: Should I Start or Sit  ____? KC at Denver TNF

 

I am putting this together to hit the questions everyone seems to have surrounding this game – so many FFM owned players going this contest, and so many options for the week but having to declare them for TNF…and in a bizarre matchup.

Denver is obviously going to try to wear down KC with a run game…keeping the ball away from our fantasy points with Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce.

At the same time, Denver’s defense is getting exponentially better every week – might they just shut down KC?

Is Mahomes’s ankle worse than we realize?

Denver’s pass rush is suspect, and if Mahomes can get out of the gates quickly…it will draw Denver into a game they cannot hang in – a shootout with Mahomes v. Flacco. Might KC drop the hammer here…they’re due to do so, right?

 

Here’s my two cents on the key FFM items from this game…

 

1) Kyler or Mahomes?

The winner of that debate each of the past two weeks has been Kyler.

Since Week 3…Kyler has outscored Mahomes in 4pts per pass TD leagues.

Mahomes faces a top 5 pass defense, and one on the rise with a smart defensive head coach, at their place/altitude.

Kyler faces the #2 worst passing yards allowed defense with NYG with perfect game conditions expected in NY.

I think in 4pts per pass TD, given Kyler’s running ability…it’s Kyler without thinking too long about it.

In 6pts per pass TD, it’s hard to bench Mahomes because he’s so good…and the Denver D has struggled to get a pass rush (but vastly improved lately) – maybe Mahomes goes off for 300+ and 3 TDs. Kyler hit 3 TDs and 340 yards passing last week.

I suspect Mahomes goes under 300 yards and hits 2 TDs in this game…if so, you got 20-24 points there for fantasy. Kyler has been up/at/over 20-24 for weeks. Hard to call for 300+ and 3 TDs for Mahomes tonight because it’s just not set up to be that kinda game…but Mahomes is a magician. So, nothing is ever off the table.

The Matt Berry types would tell you ‘You never bench your studs!’. My retort is…they do not recognize Kyler is a stud now too. You’re benching a stud one way or the other if you have this decision to make.

I’m advocating Kyler in all scoring formats, this week, over Mahomes.

You are not crazy or wrong to just go Mahomes and ride the great one. In 4pts per pass TD, we might be about at Kyler is auto-start over everyone now…but especially this week. In 6pts, I get if you want to ride the Mahomes train.

As for me and my house, I’m going Kyler…for some respect of the Denver defense. Especially if I have Mahomes-Tyreek – I can go Tyreek to get in on the goods if it happens that way, but only get hurt by one of them if it doesn’t go well TNF.

 


2) The KC RB Situation…?

I would encourage you to read my lengthy analysis of the KC RB situation from this week’s KC-HOU recap. It’s good stuff.

LeSean McCoy is like any other 6-12 carries with 2-3 catches split role RB right now. Royce Freeman may be on waivers in your league while McCoy is debated as a starter for the week –Royce Freeman is carrying the ball more and catching way more passes. I get it…you have a tie to mcCoy, been holding him all year (in vain). I thought this was a situation where KC would go to McCoy as ‘the guy’. They have done nothing like that for six weeks (and even benched McCoy for pass blocking issues two weeks ago)…why would Week 7 be any different for McCoy? Damien has out-touched and out-snapped him in almost every game…and when Damien was out, Darrel Williams came in to take all the fantasy gold in split touches.

LESEAN MCCOY WILL NEVER BE THE MAIN RB FOR KC ON PURPOSE IN 2019. I wish I would have told myself that two months ago, and then passed it on to you. We took a shot…it didn’t play. Everything I see says we need to move on.

Damien Williams is the one guy getting the most play…touches and receptions…except last week 1 carry, 1 catch. I could see Damien getting 5-8 carries and 4-7 catches this week…or his typical 3-6 carries and 2-4 catches.

In either McCoy’s or Damien’s work…you’re hoping for 10+ touches but mostly hoping for a TD. You could do that with a lot of guys. Chase Edmonds is delivering TDs on less than 10 touches.

I don’t know how you trust McCoy or Damien tonight unless you have to, and if you had to choose…I choose Damien right now.

If you have McCoy and aren’t using him…why not drop him right before kickoff to free up space for an extra DST or PK for BYE week or matchup issue next week or grab a flier player instead?

 

Let me help you by mushing your mind with some jarring facts/numbers… 

8.0 carries, 43.0 yds rushing, 2.2 rec., 15.7 yds rec., 0 TDs, 25.1 snaps per game = McCoy (2019 YTD)

8.0 carries, 15.8 yds rushing, 3.3 rec., 29.0 yds rec., 2 TDs, 29.3 snaps per game = Dam. Williams (2019 YTD)

6.3 carries, 46.3 yds rushing, 1.7 rec., 17.0 yds rec., 2 TDs, 20.0 snaps per game = Chase Edmonds (Last 3 weeks working with DJ…the 3 games where Edmonds is now playing more on purpose)

11.0 carries, 47.3 yds rushing, 3.5 rec., 24.2 yds rec., 0 TDs, 35.1 snaps per game = Royce Freeman (2019 YTD)

 

Still like McCoy as a start tonight?



3) The Denver RB situation…?

Obviously, the Broncos are going to try to come out and beat KC via the run…as all teams are trying to do.

Phillip Lindsay will likely get a higher amount of workload, and he’s hovering right at a back end RB1 (#13 YTD non-PPR PPG, #14 YTD PPR) but top 10 RB over like the last four weeks. He should be starting without a thought for just about everyone.

Royce Freeman is an interesting bird here…

10+ carries every game this season, but one. 4 or more catches in every game his last 5 games, but one. He’s getting into a mode of 11+ carries for 40-50+ rushing and 4+ catches for 30+ yards in games – solid numbers, that if he ever scores a TD he’s an RB1 threat for the week in PPR with his catch counts.

If Denver runs a lot, as expected, if KC doesn’t force them out of it…Freeman is getting 10-15 carries. If forced out of the heavy run game, Freeman has been their main pass game RB (with Lindsay working too). Freeman is shocking the ___ out of me with how smooth a receiver he’s become. Royce is due for a TD…and against this sad KC defense, Royce might be a mini-surprise of the week.

 


4) Start Tyreek or ____ ?

Just stop.

You always start Tyreek. Especially if you have distance of play/TD bonuses.

It’s not a perfect matchup, but he’s one play and the week made. He’s matchup proof. He may rank #7-8-9 for us this week and you have two top 7 other WRs on our rankings… Just go with Tyreek always.

Any other WRs for KC to play? No.

I’m sure one of them will catch a TD but good luck guessing which of Hardman-Robinson-Pringle does (my guess is in that order).

The KC other WRs issue has me thinking Damien Williams could have a nice screen pass week…3-4-5-6 catches for some good action (but then 2-4 carries otherwise).

 


5) OK, I get it about Tyreek…but what about your highly ranked Courtland Sutton?

What’s your other option? Is it hot or are you giving me like Dorsett (unknown status) or Lazard (unknown how he’ll be used) or…

First off, it’s like Kyler Murray – start respecting what you have with Courtland Sutton. You look at him and tend to think about the negatives. I get it, he hasn’t earned that trust level…but that’s an ‘us’ problem.

Since Week 4, Sutton is the #9 PPR PPG WR in fantasy. #14 since Week 3. #20 on the season. If you look and see the #20 guy and don’t see/feel the WR1 producer as of late…what can I do?

You’re getting 4+ catches for 60+ yards against a weak defense with 1-2 starting corners down…he has to hit a TD to payoff for FF, like them all in fantasy. I like my odds here, but if you have better…go for it. You can’t bear your emotions if he goes 3-50-0 and you get to cry about it for three days…go with another great option you have.

Sutton is his QB’s clear #1 WR, and he’s trending as a WR1-1.5 and he faces a middle of the road pass defense that is missing corners potentially. It’s a solid, logical play. If this gets into some kind of shootout…even better.

Sutton is not a must-start, if you are loaded at WR, but he’s a pretty strong play this week…and every week.

 


6) KC-DST as a sleeper vs. Flacco?

Flacco seems like an easy target and the Denver offense is not electric, but they aren’t terrible…and KC is down one starting DB for sure and DE Chris Jones is out…and KC doesn’t have a great defense anyway. I hope you have other options to consider. They are kinda ‘a maybe’ among the bad choices from #10-15 on the national rankings for the week. It’s not the worst play…not the best, that’s for sure.

 

I am getting out of the office and going to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch this game with a friend and enjoy myself (hopefully) or cry with my friend and drown my sorrows in queso dip and Jammin’ Jalapeno sauced wings. However it is that you’re watching the game, please enjoy and have a fruitful fantasy event…so I only get kind, celebratory emails and texts tonight and on Friday…not tearing off your sackcloth and sitting in dirt and pouring ashes on your head emails about how cursed your team is and how you’re going to lose this week you just know it. Lot of football to be played aside from TNF. Enjoy!!

And don’t bet it for real…but I need Denver to win for my over/under ‘over’ win total seasonal bets to suddenly have new life with the Broncos. Can Mahomes throw for 500 yards…400 to Tyreek, and Sutton have 300 yards receiving and Denver still win? That’s my not-asking-for-much plan for tonight. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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