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Week 8 into Week 9: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
October 31, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Jags DST – People tend to undervalue DSTs and their impact, and are willing to trade them within a multi-player deal because they want your ‘X’. The Jags DST is one of the 25-30 best assets you could own right now for ROS 2017. They’re past their BYE and you can start them with confidence every week for the rest of the season.

4) Russell Wilson – Wilson is putting up Deshaun Watson numbers the past few weeks and no one cares because Russell Wilson is boring, yesterday’s news. Wilson trades as a low-end QB1, disrespected like Dak Prescott, but is a little tougher to acquire because of the monster game last week.

When Seattle has abandoned the running game and gone all-Wilson in the past it’s been FF-awesome. The past few weeks we’ve had Cam as the ‘Hail Mary’ QB to try to turn a season around on…now, it’s Wilson as the boom-bust play.

3) Leonard Fournette – I’m shocked at how available Fournette is. Everyone knows he’s good/great but I think ‘Jags’, ‘ankle’, and Kareem Hunt stealing the media rookie RB love has Fournette oddly running under the radar. He’s not a ‘steal’ but I’m shocked that people are willing to trade him. He trades like a fringe RB1 for some owners. But I think he’s a top 3 RB for fantasy.

He has headwinds with this awful offense/QB play and defenses stacking against him, but in keeper/dynasty, etc., this is one of the only guys I’d overpay for to have for now and forever.

2) Jerick McKinnon – Much like Dak…no one believes in McKinnon, despite the excellent fantasy results. Most people think ‘it’s not real’. Plus, McKinnon doesn’t ‘start’ that scares them too. McKinnon is an RB2 with RB1 upside in PPR…like high-level RB1 as he gets more and more touches -- but he trades like an RB2-2.5 in many leagues.

1) Dak Prescott – I am shocked at the deals being reported in on people who had/have been acquiring Prescott the past two weeks. The media narrative is locked in for fantasy GMs…Dak isn’t that good and if he’s doing well it’s bound to end. Dak wished he got once ounce the respect as a rookie (or sophomore) that Deshaun Watson is getting. A weak FF game last week opens the door even wider. He trades like a back-end QB1.

I like this deal long-term more than short-term, and I love it for right now too. Eventually, this becomes a Dak-led offense and they surround him with weapons.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Demaryius Thomas – A QB change to Paxton Lynch might get people re-invigorated. Thomas has disappeared from playing at a high-level, like many legacy WRs have died off (Julio, DT, Jeffrey, Dez)…guys that used to be great but don’t really try anymore now that they’ve been ‘paid’. He’s had decent numbers two of last three games. If you can mix him into a multi-player deal, trying to get any semblance of a WR2 value, do so and move on with new/other WRs.

4) Devin Funchess – Regressing back to his ‘mean’ and Greg Olsen starting to get ready for his return. The clock is ticking on Funchess value. If you can dump for WR2 valuation, get it and go.

3) T.Y. Hilton – All the hype about him getting traded…if it fluffs his value back to WR1.0-1.5 area, you might want to take that deal. ESPECIALLY in redraft. If he is traded it will take a him a bit to get acclimated, etc., and he might land in a bad spot anyway. You can sell the sizzle before the trade deadline.

2) Alex Collins – Collins had a moment on a solo night game, rushing for 100+ yards against Miami in a blowout and having everyone make a big deal that he’s leading the league in YPC. He’s not that type of runner. He has been inconsequential before this, a couple big runs at the end of blowout games…a guy who has fumble issues and can’t catch very well. He is a must sell now. You could probably deal Collins for McKinnon straight up this week.

1) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Nothing against him, but you only get a convergence of events like this every so often…’rookie’ + ‘cool name’ + 97-yard TD on a solo night game. He’s a WR3 week-to-week and might be a WR1.5-2.0 to trade off right now.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Paul Richardson – Risky…just based upon whether you think Seattle is about to unleash Russell Wilson every week. When they do, there is room behind Doug Baldwin for another WR to thrive. Tyler Lockett isn’t out of the question either.

4) Kenyan Drake – Assumed starter, but risk talk of ‘split role’ will crop up. You acquire only to trade. You could get tricky and grab him and let him play a week and see if he pops and then deal higher. The schedule from Week 10 on is not in Drake’s favor…and Drake is inconsistent and ripe to implode any chance he gets. High injury probability guy.

3) Jack Doyle – Has become the clear top target for Jacoby Brissett. Been a top 5 PPR TE for the past few weeks.

2) Alex Collins – Only grab to trade, and do it ASAP. Don’t wait. See earlier note.

1) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Only grab to trade as hot as possible. See earlier note.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Paxton Lynch – I’m guessing he’ll be named starter soon…and then all heck will break loose in Denver affecting the WRs/TEs worse than with recent Siemian.

4) Dontrelle Inman – Some will be excited when they hear he is going to be active this week…Chicago doesn’t want to pass so good luck to any WR here.

3) Dion Sims – Zach Miller out, some are looking at Dion Sims…Sims has already been playing most of the TE snaps. He’s a blocking TE with occasional catches…playing in an offense that doesn’t want to pass.  

2) Teddy Bridgewater – I love him as a player, but you have his ‘rust’ + the Mike Zimmer offense + a tougher schedule ahead. I don’t think there is an instant impact here…plus, Zimmer is likely sticking with Keenum until they lose a game. Take cheap looks only.

1) Jimmy Garoppolo – I love him as a player. I want in long-term, etc., but no way he plays until after the BYE…so, Week 11…and then the schedule isn’t that favorable.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Dwayne Washington – I think I saw the Lions starting to give DW a chance to steal this starting job last week. If he ever breaks free, lookout…a star is born. This is a real boom-bust pickup.

4) Andre Ellington – Was hot in PPR before Adrian Peterson showed up. Drew Stanton may need to take advantage of Ellington as a poor man’s Chris Thompson here.

3) Damien Williams – If you assume Kenyan Drake will blow his chance…the more stable, consistent RB is Williams. He’ll have a role regardless. Upside that he becomes the guy quickly.

2) Danny Woodhead – Eligible to return soon and he would be in line for 5-10 catches a game easily if he’s healthy. I think Flacco will overthrow to him all game.

1) Corey Coleman – If he returns, he’s the one and only target among the WRs for Kizer…Kizer throws to him without fail no matter how many people are covering him.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Trevor Siemian – He was so good Weeks 1-2, and I have no idea what has happened but that O-Line isn’t helping. Denver is about to implode and start changing QBs, etc.

4) Jamaal Charles – UNLESS he gets traded today. He was disrespected once again by Vance Joseph against KC on MNF, so you can forget it. They have no plans to push him.

3) Mike Williams – It won’t be long before people think Williams will be the next JuJu Smith-Schuster uprising, but it’s a completely different circumstance. Trade away in dynasty. Drop in a regular redraft.

2) D’Onta Foreman – The talent is there but Foreman appears to be doing things off the field subverting his career.

1) Theo Riddick – In a sea of Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson type RBs, Riddick used to be that guy…but he’s been diminished in 2017 and he’s nowhere near as talented an athlete as the typical passing game RB. Something has changed with his role and no sense hoping for any turn.

 

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***LAST WEEK***

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Cam Newton – Again, here for another week…and for the same, specific reason: If your team is scuffling at 2-5/3-4 and you are having issues at QB in a 4pts per pass TD league – this is a guy to throw a Hail Mary on. He’s back to running, a lot, of late and he can change fantasy teams with his feet. Last five weeks of fantasy rushing points, before passing…7.6, 10.4, 0.0, 13.1, 5.0. TB-ATL-MIA next three games to aid with the passing numbers. Dice roll on magic…or certain death, if you need it.

4) Jerick McKinnon – Everyone is going to rush off to Latavius Murray because ‘recent TD’ and ‘starter’ but McKinnon played more snaps than Murray this past week, and has been far superior to Latavius for weeks. People don’t trust McKinnon…I do, just not Mike Zimmer. If you can get JMK for RB2-2.5 value – do it. There will be panic on him this week for sure.

3) Leonard Fournette – Hear me out… Missed last week. On a BYE this week. Fantasy GMs have short-term memories…even on great players. Out of sight, out of mind. A team might be desperate right now and willing to trade the kingdom for a bowl of soup today. Fournette is as good as it gets and this will be as cheap as he could be the rest of the season. Redraft or dynasty this might be a window where you sell only half your soul to get him. Soon, he’ll be untouchable. He might still be. But, perhaps this one particular week…

2) Doug Martin – A running back getting all the touches is worth their weight in gold. No one in fantasy trusts or likes Tampa Bay and they aren’t ever in love that much with Martin. His numbers have been OK, not great. Sometimes he comes easily/cheap. A definitive #1 RB for his team with a pretty ncie schedule ahead. It’s worth something.

1) Chris Hogan – The Davante Adams of 2017…the guy everyone doesn’t trust/disrespects and all they do is score TDs week-after-week. Hogan hasn’t scored in two weeks so national panic is occurring. “I knew he couldn’t keep this up” is the tape playing in his current owner’s head – take advantage. Current owner will want WR2 value but you might squeeze them for a near WR3 valuation…flip your hot of the moment thing for Hogan. Hogan + Brady = TDs. 10+ TDs this year.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Will Fuller/Nelson Agholor – They’ve been great but I see them going for WR1.5/strong 2.0 valuations…I’ll sell into that for sure. These are low target, mediocre talent WRs cashing in on a nice TD stretch…and it may keep up a la a Donte Moncrief or Brandon LaFell type of run…but eventually they fall and without a TD they have little catch and yardage numbers to help support you week-to-week.

4) Jimmy Graham – Back-to-back TDs the past two weeks and his name value are worth something. You can get guys producing like Graham off waivers in many leagues (Kroft, etc.). If someone loves the name and sees salvation – make them pay if you have another TE in your back pocket.

3) DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry – A lot of people hold them together. Try to deal them as a package or if you have one – deal that one. This duo looks terrible this season but they do get touches and have some FF numbers. They’re on a BYE so it might not be wise until next week. Don’t play an upswing on them…play the flop if you can get someone interested for RB2 valuation on Murray.

2) Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Is on a hot streak of TDs somewhat pushed by level of opponent. I don’t see any reason for excitement here once the schedule stiffens ahead. People seem to be intrigued with this name – sell into it if you have another TE to work with.

1) Stefon Diggs – Once he is cleared to play, people will feel better about acquiring…maybe. They would also see he’s a top 10 fantasy WR. If you can get WR1-1.5 value out of him, I’d flip him betting against Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater able to make this passing game hot. Diggs had a sweet start  to 2017 and left with injury before the Vikings offense fell off. We’re trying to time the market on him if anyone is buying it hot/believes his top 10 rank among WRs in PPG so far.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Latavius Murray – I’m not convinced that Murray is ‘the guy’ now because of his one good week. I’d get him to sell him to the highest bidder/McKinnon owner. Or if you have McKinnon you have more interest in this. Be wary.

4) Kenny Stills – Stills + Matt Moore = a good thing, and the schedule of BAL-OAK-CAR-TB-NE helps. I would go too crazy because DeVante Parker returns and takes an edge off this. Don’t push hard at all here unless WR desperate right now.

3) Ted Ginn – I’d rather you have Ginn…a sustainable WR2 that everyone ditched to start 2017, including his biggest proponent…me. But come back to your first love. The guy is tracking WR2 numbers YTD…and has several near-miss/down at the one TDs…he’s could be a shocking top 15 WR this season, seriously.

2) Tyler Kroft – If you have Engram as TE1, ASJ or Graham as TE2, you pick up Kroft and sell ASL or Graham. Kroft is Tyler Eifert. Three TDs in the past three games.

1) Sterling Shepard – Looking for a shot at team’s #1 WR but available on waivers or in trade as a WR3 valuation…here it is. I’m not sure Eli can make this happen, but I willing to pay a bit to take a look. He’s on a BYE this week so sit on him resting/healing for a week and you might wake up with a PPR WR1.5 for the ROS in two weeks.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Dede Westbrook – I see a lot of chatter that he’s coming back… Who cares? Keelan Cole is well ahead of Westbrook. No Jags’ WRs matter for fantasy anyway.

4) Deonte Thompson – 100+ yards in his Bills’ debut…but don’t trust WRs related to this Bills’ offense.

3) Demarcus Robinson – The Tony Romo special…he tried to make a superstar on TNF for making some basic catches. Robinson is solid but the non-Tyreek WRs for KC are fantasy death. Anyone remember Chris Conley?

2) O.J. Howard – People want to love him, I want to love him…and he’s seeing some better targets but not ‘center of the offense’ type ones. He’s getting TDs on misdirection plays and ignored in the red zone for Cam Brate. I don’t trust sustainability is here yet. I don’t see evidence on tape. I love what’s possible but I think we’re at least a year away from consistency.

1) DeAndre Washington – If I had to play one of these RBs for a week while Lynch was out…I’d go Jalen Richard but really I like neither. Mediocre RBs with a suddenly bad O-Line facing Buffalo? No thanks.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

6) Josh Doctson – Terrelle Pryor died Week 7, R.I.P. The Redskins #1 receiver is Chris Thompson…and then it’s Jordan Reed…and then it’s Vernon Davis…but after that their new #1 WR is Josh Doctson (maybe, battling Ryan Grant for that honor). Get on the train early. Possible WR3 happening now with upside…but the Skins aren’t throwing to WRs much at all. We forget how talented Doctson is because he’s been lost for a season+.

5) Kenny Golladay – If Golden Tate is out longer than a week or two, Golladay may be a shock to the system upon his return. Marvin Jones will see primary coverage and the Lions have PIT-GB-CLE ahead. No Tate for GB-CLE would be $$$ for Golladay, I think.

4) Patriots DST – Ummm…14-17-7 points allowed the past three games. The ‘terrible’ Pats defense is getting healthy and adjusting, behind a defensive mastermind in Belichick. Rivers-BYE-Siemian-Carr-Moore/Cutler-Tyrod-Moore/Cutler the next six weeks.

3) Tarik Cohen – Played only 7 snaps last week…all as a WR. On those 7 snaps, 3 official targets and one lost to penalty. When he gets in they are trying to get him touches…this pastw eek was just odd due to the ‘game flow’. I see the Bears trying to figure this out. If they do…if they mimic Tyreek Hill, which I saw them trying to do this past week – this is going to be sweet. Don’t give up yet.

2) Greg Zuerlein – People will cut him this week because ‘BYE’ and ‘rostering two kickers is dumb’. I’ll roster two…I’ll hold Z for a week and then ride him the rest of the season. The leagues 2nd best kicker on the best offense in the NFL…you want in on that for no cost.

1) Jared Goff – Still like 25% owned in normal-sized leagues. He’s sitting #14 in 4pts per pass TD scoring PPG this season among QBs…and will soon push into the top 12. An emerging QB on the best offense in the NFL…you want in on that for almost no cost. You want him as a QB2 to play on matchups or a possible straight starter if he gets hot.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Jamison Crowder – I never bought in this year. Some people are still starting him…why?

4) Terrelle Pryor – I did buy in here and get scorched. Benched by Gruden Week 7. Confidence has been rattled. He looks lost. You might keep him just in case they trade him to Chicago or the Jets.

3) Cole Beasley – Had a nice game a few weeks ago, but has been totally ignored otherwise by Dak.

2) Antonio Gates – I think he’s officially done as a thing for the Chargers. Every time you try to bury him he raises up…but not this time. I think he’s done.

1) Mike Gillislee – Hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2. Hasn’t seen a target. He’s the Ryan Matthews or Jeremy Hill of 2017.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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