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Week 9 into Week 10: Player Advice (Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc.)

Date:
November 7, 2017

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Marcus Mariota – Need a QB2 for the playoff run? A guy who was a QB1 last season and has been when playing full games this season? Why you want him – Weeks 12-15: IND-HOU-ARI-SF. It also means Rishard Matthews has value (as always).

4) Sterling Shepard – An NFL team’s clear #1 WR…on a team that will be down/throwing all the time – and he’s trading like a WR2.5.

3) Jerick McKinnon – People still do not believe. He has the talent of a top 5-8 RB1 but trades like an RB2+. You could do worse than a PPR fantasy backfield of McKinnon-Thompson.

2) Chris Thompson – Top 8-10 PPR RB this season, but people believe he’s more like top 20-25. Coming off a ‘low’ week…it’s a great weak to snag a sneaky RB1 for an RB2 price.

1) Russell Wilson – Wilson’s getting ready (already is) to make a run to be the #1 QB for fantasy by 2017 end. He’s already top 3-5. He’s not simple to get but people still undervalue him much like they do with our recent ‘trade for’ staple Dak Prescott. Wilson is a QB that might take you to a title because Seattle cannot run and they are back to putting it all on Wilson.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Derrick Henry and/or Demarco Murray – No matter how bad these guys are, there is typically a buyer on Murray. He’s been awful. Hurt or whatever…let someone else gamble. If Henry gets the ‘more touches’ chatter then see if you can dump him as an RB2 valuation potentially. The Titans run game is terrible and these guys are the worst. Hold as RB3s…sell as RB2s.

4) Will Fuller – ‘Tom Savage’ is one big strike against him, but the other under-the-radar items is – Savage likes Bruce Ellington as an option in the passing game. Last week, Ellington and Fuller both had 8 targets. You think Fuller might get that lightning strike here and there…chances are reduced even more with Savage-Ellington taking a few targets.  

3) Alex Collins – Another of our top guys to cash out on last week. Take what you can get here. RB2 value hopefully.

2) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Like the player OK, but I know the Steelers #2 WR isn’t more than a WR3 at best. However, the hype from his last game says WR2 trade valuation. Cash in. You should have last week when the lust was hotter.

1) Jay Ajayi – I’ve beaten the drum for this over and over…Ajayi is not a talented RB. He’s OK/useful, situational. The media thinks this the greatest trade in the history of football. A long TD run in a blowout validated their thinking here (just his 3rd TD run in his past 17 games). Sell this guy ASAP. He’s going into a committee and he’s not the receiving back or the best power back. The Eagles rotate with zero concern for who needs/wants touches. The Eagles O-Line is down a bit. Sell him as an RB1.5 and don’t look back. Take RB2 money if that’s all that is out there. Ajayi for McKinnon…you bet.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Marquise Goodwin – De facto #1 WR for the 49ers now. Had 8 targets Week 9 in his new role. It may be a ‘who cares’ moment, but in Week 12 with Garoppolo (maybe) it could be a little more exciting.

4) Orleans Darkwa – Not a fan but just note – facing the 49ers this week…the worst run defense in football this year (and last year) and just lost one of their best run stoppers (J. Tartt) on top of a thousand other injuries they have.

3) Marqise Lee – Four guys who are underrated #1 WRs for their team are on this list in this section. Lee can’t go higher than this because he’s the top target of Blake Bortles and ‘Bortles’ typically leads to disappointment.

2) Robert Woods – We’ve been talking about Woods as the Rams #1 WR for a few weeks, now everyone knows it. He’s the most trusted WR on the top offense in the NFL.

1) Robby Anderson – He’s moved into a clear #1 WR role with the kicker that he is a really good, possibly great WR. I’ve believed in his talent just not his targets (or QB/coach) earlier this year…I do ‘believe’ enough now.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Stephen Anderson – Anderson isn’t bad and had a nice Week 9, but the Texans pass game is garbage and C.J. Fiedorowicz returns soon.

4) Josh Doctson – Great end of game ‘Hail Mary’ catch but before that…not much in Week 9…just like all season. Not ready to be trusted yet.

3) Peyton Barber – If he were named a starter, he’d instantly be the worst starting RB in the NFL…worse than Rob Kelley. He’s not going to be a starter.

2) Corey Clement – Great week…good luck chasing the butterflies known as the Eagles’ RBs every week.

1) Terrance Williams – Never is consistent, I don’t care that he had a nice output Week 9. Was almost nothing for weeks leading up to this game.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Mack Hollins – He’s going to be a starter before long. He’s a lesser, but tougher Jordan Matthews type WR.

4) Curtis Samuel – His numbers are inching up every week and Kelvin Benjamin traded away increased his targets even more. There’s a lot more Samuel can offer this offense. Not sure we’ll ever see it since Christian McCaffrey is a black hole of sucking up all touches.

3) Rod Smith – The pure gamble that Elliott gets suspended this week and that Smith becomes ‘a thing’ and takes off to be a fresh young RB that cannot be denied working behind Alfred Morris to start. Beyond a long-shot play.

2) Devontae Booker – If Denver starts making wholesale changes…one of them could be Booker named as starting RB.

1) Dallas DST – Held KC to 17 points…10, if you consider the Tyreek miracle. Held Washington to 19 the week prior. Crushed SF the week before that. They’ve been whooped by Goff and Rodgers…the best offenses in the NFL outside of Dallas. They’ve crushed everyone else except Denver Week 2 which was an odd game. They’ve been emerging, getting healthy for weeks. You don’t have a Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, or LA Rams? Consider dem Boys are about to crossover into an elite defense.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Donte Moncrief – He disappeared like 2-3 weeks ago and no one noticed. He still plays but doesn’t see many passes.

4) Brett Hundley – Two weeks to prepare, and 3+ years in ‘the system’ and we get Hundley throwing a bunch of screen passes on MNF. No thanks. All the fears of Mike McCarthy are true…he should be an unknown O-Line coach for Andy Reid, but Aaron Rodgers gave him life. McCarthy is the worst. He cannot develop talent at QB, despite that supposedly a specialist, and he won’t change his offense for Hundley into a spread attack. He deserves to lose the rest of his games this season.

3) Samaje Perine – Still think he could save the Redskins running game, but Jay Gruden has no confidence in him.

2) Wayne Gallman – Had a moment a few weeks ago. Told you to run. Now it’s beyond time.

1) Tom Savage – I’m not supporting anymore deep pocket, medium-deep throwers who need a ton of blocking to activate. The league isn’t built like that anymore. It was in 1970-2000+ but it’s not anymore. It’s all about quick passing, mobile QBs, and O-Lines that only hold for a short amount of time. Savage and stiff pocket QBs of his ilk are dinosaurs…and the Texans O-Line is a disaster that Deshaun Watson was propping up.

 

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**LAST WEEK’S REPORT**

 

Trade For (guys we believe are worth much more than the current market price in most cases) 

5) Jags DST – People tend to undervalue DSTs and their impact, and are willing to trade them within a multi-player deal because they want your ‘X’. The Jags DST is one of the 25-30 best assets you could own right now for ROS 2017. They’re past their BYE and you can start them with confidence every week for the rest of the season.

4) Russell Wilson – Wilson is putting up Deshaun Watson numbers the past few weeks and no one cares because Russell Wilson is boring, yesterday’s news. Wilson trades as a low-end QB1, disrespected like Dak Prescott, but is a little tougher to acquire because of the monster game last week.

When Seattle has abandoned the running game and gone all-Wilson in the past it’s been FF-awesome. The past few weeks we’ve had Cam as the ‘Hail Mary’ QB to try to turn a season around on…now, it’s Wilson as the boom-bust play.

3) Leonard Fournette – I’m shocked at how available Fournette is. Everyone knows he’s good/great but I think ‘Jags’, ‘ankle’, and Kareem Hunt stealing the media rookie RB love has Fournette oddly running under the radar. He’s not a ‘steal’ but I’m shocked that people are willing to trade him. He trades like a fringe RB1 for some owners. But I think he’s a top 3 RB for fantasy.

He has headwinds with this awful offense/QB play and defenses stacking against him, but in keeper/dynasty, etc., this is one of the only guys I’d overpay for to have for now and forever.

2) Jerick McKinnon – Much like Dak…no one believes in McKinnon, despite the excellent fantasy results. Most people think ‘it’s not real’. Plus, McKinnon doesn’t ‘start’ that scares them too. McKinnon is an RB2 with RB1 upside in PPR…like high-level RB1 as he gets more and more touches -- but he trades like an RB2-2.5 in many leagues.

1) Dak Prescott – I am shocked at the deals being reported in on people who had/have been acquiring Prescott the past two weeks. The media narrative is locked in for fantasy GMs…Dak isn’t that good and if he’s doing well it’s bound to end. Dak wished he got once ounce the respect as a rookie (or sophomore) that Deshaun Watson is getting. A weak FF game last week opens the door even wider. He trades like a back-end QB1.

I like this deal long-term more than short-term, and I love it for right now too. Eventually, this becomes a Dak-led offense and they surround him with weapons.

 

Trade Away (Players we believe are radically overvalued and can cash in on, or ones you need to get off of ASAP…plus, trying to give you an idea of valuation)…

5) Demaryius Thomas – A QB change to Paxton Lynch might get people re-invigorated. Thomas has disappeared from playing at a high-level, like many legacy WRs have died off (Julio, DT, Jeffrey, Dez)…guys that used to be great but don’t really try anymore now that they’ve been ‘paid’. He’s had decent numbers two of last three games. If you can mix him into a multi-player deal, trying to get any semblance of a WR2 value, do so and move on with new/other WRs.

4) Devin Funchess – Regressing back to his ‘mean’ and Greg Olsen starting to get ready for his return. The clock is ticking on Funchess value. If you can dump for WR2 valuation, get it and go.

3) T.Y. Hilton – All the hype about him getting traded…if it fluffs his value back to WR1.0-1.5 area, you might want to take that deal. ESPECIALLY in redraft. If he is traded it will take a him a bit to get acclimated, etc., and he might land in a bad spot anyway. You can sell the sizzle before the trade deadline.

2) Alex Collins – Collins had a moment on a solo night game, rushing for 100+ yards against Miami in a blowout and having everyone make a big deal that he’s leading the league in YPC. He’s not that type of runner. He has been inconsequential before this, a couple big runs at the end of blowout games…a guy who has fumble issues and can’t catch very well. He is a must sell now. You could probably deal Collins for McKinnon straight up this week.

1) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Nothing against him, but you only get a convergence of events like this every so often…’rookie’ + ‘cool name’ + 97-yard TD on a solo night game. He’s a WR3 week-to-week and might be a WR1.5-2.0 to trade off right now.

 

Waiver names to trust (obviously, depending on league…I'm looking at less than 50% owned in mainstream league stats; your league may vary):

5) Paul Richardson – Risky…just based upon whether you think Seattle is about to unleash Russell Wilson every week. When they do, there is room behind Doug Baldwin for another WR to thrive. Tyler Lockett isn’t out of the question either.

4) Kenyan Drake – Assumed starter, but risk talk of ‘split role’ will crop up. You acquire only to trade. You could get tricky and grab him and let him play a week and see if he pops and then deal higher. The schedule from Week 10 on is not in Drake’s favor…and Drake is inconsistent and ripe to implode any chance he gets. High injury probability guy.

3) Jack Doyle – Has become the clear top target for Jacoby Brissett. Been a top 5 PPR TE for the past few weeks.

2) Alex Collins – Only grab to trade, and do it ASAP. Don’t wait. See earlier note.

1) JuJu Smith-Schuster – Only grab to trade as hot as possible. See earlier note.

  

Waiver names to mistrust:

5) Paxton Lynch – I’m guessing he’ll be named starter soon…and then all heck will break loose in Denver affecting the WRs/TEs worse than with recent Siemian.

4) Dontrelle Inman – Some will be excited when they hear he is going to be active this week…Chicago doesn’t want to pass so good luck to any WR here.

3) Dion Sims – Zach Miller out, some are looking at Dion Sims…Sims has already been playing most of the TE snaps. He’s a blocking TE with occasional catches…playing in an offense that doesn’t want to pass. 

2) Teddy Bridgewater – I love him as a player, but you have his ‘rust’ + the Mike Zimmer offense + a tougher schedule ahead. I don’t think there is an instant impact here…plus, Zimmer is likely sticking with Keenum until they lose a game. Take cheap looks only.

1) Jimmy Garoppolo – I love him as a player. I want in long-term, etc., but no way he plays until after the BYE…so, Week 11…and then the schedule isn’t that favorable.

 

Names to grab off deep waivers Ahead of the Curve

5) Dwayne Washington – I think I saw the Lions starting to give DW a chance to steal this starting job last week. If he ever breaks free, lookout…a star is born. This is a real boom-bust pickup.

4) Andre Ellington – Was hot in PPR before Adrian Peterson showed up. Drew Stanton may need to take advantage of Ellington as a poor man’s Chris Thompson here.

3) Damien Williams – If you assume Kenyan Drake will blow his chance…the more stable, consistent RB is Williams. He’ll have a role regardless. Upside that he becomes the guy quickly.

2) Danny Woodhead – Eligible to return soon and he would be in line for 5-10 catches a game easily if he’s healthy. I think Flacco will overthrow to him all game.

1) Corey Coleman – If he returns, he’s the one and only target among the WRs for Kizer…Kizer throws to him without fail no matter how many people are covering him.

 

Players you can just give up on, stop believing…

5) Trevor Siemian – He was so good Weeks 1-2, and I have no idea what has happened but that O-Line isn’t helping. Denver is about to implode and start changing QBs, etc.

4) Jamaal Charles – UNLESS he gets traded today. He was disrespected once again by Vance Joseph against KC on MNF, so you can forget it. They have no plans to push him.

3) Mike Williams – It won’t be long before people think Williams will be the next JuJu Smith-Schuster uprising, but it’s a completely different circumstance. Trade away in dynasty. Drop in a regular redraft.

2) D’Onta Foreman – The talent is there but Foreman appears to be doing things off the field subverting his career.

1) Theo Riddick – In a sea of Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson type RBs, Riddick used to be that guy…but he’s been diminished in 2017 and he’s nowhere near as talented an athlete as the typical passing game RB. Something has changed with his role and no sense hoping for any turn.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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