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Week 9 Quick Notes (SUN games)...

Date:
November 6, 2017

*The Top 5 Trade For/Away, Waivers, etc. will post later today or more likely tomorrow pre-noonET.

For now, here's the instant reaction to Sunday, subject to change when I go through the tape fully a second time…

LAR-NYG

 -- We’re all going to celebrate my Jared Goff (14-22 for 311 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) genius today, as well we should…but from the most pro-Goff guy there is – don’t assume he is an unstoppable force yet. He might be, but don’t ignore your QB2 situation. This matchup was a gift. Next week will great too. Then Week 11 vs. MIN might be dicey.

We might have struck gold here but don’t fully assume yet. The data is not strong enough to plant a stake in the ground just yet. Get the stake ready, but we’re not fully there yet.

 -- There’s no turning back on Evan Engram (4-70-1/10) now – the best tight end for fantasy for the future. The future elite piece of your fantasy puzzle now and for years to come.

 -- Sterling Shepard (5-70-0/9) got the #1 WR treatment we expected – led all WRs in targets and catches. Considering the Giants will be in shootouts/large deficits for the rest of the season…Shepard should have a ton of targets and action for the ROS.

 

CIN-JAC

 -- Every game is the same for Joe Mixon (13-31-1, 3-15-0/4) …low ypc, just a couple of targets. There is no commitment to riding him like their opponent does with Leonard Fournette (when not suspended). Mixon remains an RB2.5 week-to-week…someday he’ll be a respected RB1, but probably not until 2018+.

 -- A.J. Green (1-6-0/2) screwed his FF-owners by getting tossed from this game…and a suspension is likely to happen. Pushing and shoving is one thing, but come from behind and grab someone around the neck and yanking them to the ground then throwing a punch…it’s going to warrant a game.

If it happens, you have Green missing a cherry matchup with Tennessee and then he returns against Denver Week 11…so AJG might be useless Weeks 10-11 after being useless Week 9.

 -- Keeping him in front of you – Keelan Cole (3-47-0/5) is taking a step forward every week. Making tough catches…and had a sweet one-handed grab on a ball thrown high early in the game. Not going to FF-matter this year, but remains one to watch in deep roster leagues for the future.

 

DEN-PHI

 -- Jay Ajayi (8-77-1) broke loose for a long TD in a game that was headed downhill as it was. If you have him, trade him for the most you can get. He’s a limited talent. He’ll be part of an RBBC/split situation. The media loves this deal…use that to push him away, especially if you’re in a PPR league.

 -- Carson Wentz only completed 15 passes for 199 yards…but dropped 4 TDs on Denver. He’s good but he’s having as charmed a year as Matt Ryan did last season – don’t fight it (I’m talking to me), he’s going to be top 3 for fantasy QB for the ROS and league MVP. He’s a nice guy, he deserves it. I’ve bet against him…one of my worst moves of 2017 as a bettor and fantasy projector.

 -- I just have a feeling the Broncos coaches are going to panic…and make wholesale changes in desperation to jump-start the team, as they should…especially going to face New England. One of those changes might be Devontae Booker (6-21-0, 2-9-0/3) as the new lead RB.

 

TB-NO

 -- Brace yourself for a Mike Evans (1-13-0/6) suspension for a game. You may not think that matters to you but if A.J. Green and Mike Evans are out this week…plus 4 more teams on a BYE – there’s going to be a premium on WRs for Week 10 off waivers, etc. If you’re in need you should probably look to a trade…maybe?

 -- Like I’ve been saying…Ted Ginn (4-59-1/5) just stays your WR3/Flex in any decent matchup for him. He’s a TD producer…3 TDs in his last 6 games. He’s had, seriously, about 4-6 ‘near’ TDs this season-to-date. In this game, Ginn was open for a bomb TD and couldn’t haul it in with a tough/impossible over-the-shoulder grab. Always like one per game…he breaks my heart with an ‘almost’ play. However, I also have to say -- he’s been excellent the past few weeks…catching everything in sight with defenders all over.

 -- As the Tampa offense becomes a dumpster fire, Doug Martin (8-7-0) as the starting RB is becoming more and more meaningless. He’s their lead guy but he’s falling to RB3/Flex, not an RB2. I thought he’d be a cheap investment in a stable RB2 on workload…now, that’s falling apart as the Bucs collapse.

 

IND-HOU

 -- Facing the Colts without their top corner (Vontae Davis), and as bad as this Colts defense is any way…Tom Savage (19-44 for 219 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) cannot look this pathetic. Deep drop back, no footspeed, deep-ball guys are dead in this era. The NFL is too fast now. Savage, Flacco, Glennon, Cutler, etc. The NFL has changed and flew right by them. Savage will continue to struggle and take Hopkins-Fuller down with him most weeks against any decent competition.  

 -- Marlon Mack (9-29-0) might get dropped in some leagues…I’m a buyer. The Colts got up in this game and tried to sit on it with Frank Gore. Mack is more valuable when Indy is losing and throwing a bunch…and that’s their reality more weeks than not.

 -- D’Onta Foreman (11-37-0, 0-0-0/1) out-carried Lamar Miller 11-10 in a nip and tuck game that Houston desperately needed. I wonder if this is a ‘tell’ on a shift that might happen due to the new QB situation? I need to re-watch this game to get a better feel. I didn’t realize it was happening during the live watches.

 

ATL-CAR

 -- Be careful those of you with narrow wins over an opponent who had Cam Newton (13-24 for 137 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 9-86-1) at QB. There was a run option toss to Christian McCaffery for a rushing TD that was obviously a forward shuffle pass…it should be stat corrected to a TD pass…giving Cam 4 or 6 or whatever more points, and 1 point to McCaffrey in PPR. I say, ‘it should’ but we’ll see if they do their jobs.

 -- Tevin Coleman (5-5-0, 1-91-1/2) may as well not exist for OC Steve Sarkisian. He’s barely targeted anymore. He gets 6-9 carries a game and a target. He always looks better in limited time than Devonta Freeman…but it doesn’t matter. Coleman got the TD this week, so maybe use that little spike to deal him if there’s a taker for him as an RB2-something valuation. He only got the TD flip when Freeman got banged up and took a few plays off. Coleman is dead/dying right now.

 -- Another step forward for Curtis Samuel (3-23-0/5, 1-14-0/1) in his first game without Kelvin Benjamin. His confidence gains every week. His targets are slowly rising. I don’t see anything yet for FF to use yet…but the warning shot/long play/long TD might be right around the corner to advance his name into ‘Flex’ discussions.

 

BAL-TEN

 -- I keep waiting for a little spurt from Demarco Murray (9-19-0, 2-22-0/2) but he may be the worst starting RB in the NFL. He plays with about as much pop and enthusiasm as Jimmy Graham…meaning ‘none’. If you can’t run on the Ravens…you suck. Which means he and Derrick Henry, and the Titans offense sucks. I said trade them two weeks ago…now, you’d be lucky to get anything for them.

 -- I told you Alex Collins (13-43-0, 1-3-0/1) wasn’t anything. You gotta sell while you can. You shoulda sold last week.

 -- I love Marcus Mariota (19-28 for 218 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) but he is painful to watch in this offense. Before you give up…or when you see his name on waivers in some leagues, consider the schedule ahead: CIN-PIT-IND-HOU-ARI-SF next 6 games. One trouble spot, the Steelers. The Bengals are falling, and the other 4 matchups are bottom 10 passing defenses to face.

 

ARI-SF

 -- Carlos Hyde 12-41-0, 9-84-0/10) cannot run the ball effectively with this offense but that’s turned him into a PPR gem suddenly. 5.5 catches per game the past four weeks. As long as C.J. Beathard is QB, this holds up…but CJB has one more week as starting QB. We don’t know what Jimmy Garoppolo will do.

 -- Marquise Goodwin (2-68-0/8) saw the most targets post-Garcon IR…but only connected on two throws, one of them a 55-yard deep ball. Goodwin had his fingertips on a 50+ yard bomb but it was thrown just out of his reach…beating defenders for a few yards. Goodwin has WR3 ‘pop’ appeal ahead. A guy who will project for 6-9 PPG in PPR but might drop a 20+ with a long-distance TD every other week. He’s Tyreek Hill…only a worse QB (today) but more targets.

 -- David Johnson hopes are tied to Week 10’s outcome, in all likelihood.  If Arizona pulls off a miracle to beat flawed Seattle, then they jump to 5-4 and tied with Seattle, but hold the tie-breaker. They could also be in a tie for the last wild-card spot through Week 10. A loss by Arizona in Week 10 propels Seattle and drops Arizona and digs them quite a hole without any real talent on the team to make a big comeback. DJ people…we need an Arizona upset next week to change the landscape.

 

WAS-SEA

 -- People might drop Paul Richardson (3-41-0/3) this week after a weak FF output. You have to remember, as I said about this game going in – Washington has one of the best secondaries in football…and they proved it here. At Arizona, Atlanta, at San Fran the next three weeks are all nice setups for Richardson…if you consider him the Seattle #2 WR.

 -- CFM/FFM fave Will Compton (9 tackles, 3 PDs, 1 INT) has jumped right back in as a starter the last two weeks and been great. He was a machine in this game. The past two weeks: 8.0 tackles, 1.5 PDs per game.

 -- Believe in Russell Wilson (24-45 for 297 yards, 2 TD/2 INT, 10-77-0) for the fantasy finish in 2017. Because this team cannot run he’s throwing a ton but now starting to run a lot more to help the run game – 34.2 rushing yards and 0.20 TDs per game the past five games. 77 yards rushing in this one.

 

KC-DAL

 -- Unless I hear that Dez Bryant is out, I don’t trust this nice Terrance Williams (9-141-0/9) output at all. He’s been a ghost for weeks. Ditto Cole Beasley (4-24-2/6). They are WR4s you could gamble on as WR3s in a desperate week.

 -- The Kareen Hunt (9-37-0, 4-24-0/5) as ‘greatest RB ever’ story is falling apart fast. He had to return to reality. In addition, Andy Reid is so obviously going to him every play that there are 4-5 guys moving towards him every snap.

 -- Hey, good for Kevin Pierre-Louis (7 tackles, 1 TFL). I think he got the start this game…starting ILB for the ROS? Love it! Finally.

 

OAK-MIA

 -- Kenyan Drake (9-69-0, 6-35-0/6) and Damien Williams (7-14-0, 6-47-1/6) both looked very good in their debut as a tandem. If you had to pick one, it’s Drake…he’s the obvious athletic talent of the two. However, Drake cannot go three games without getting hurt so be prepared.

 -- What the heck Jared Cook (8-126-0/9)? Miami had no answers for him at all. Something to note…Miami is dying against the TE. Ben Watson a TD against them the prior week. ASJ a TD before that. Austin Hooper with 7 catches before that. Ed Dickson…you’re up this week!

 -- Derek Carr’s TD passes in games the past six games…1-1-1-3-1-1. He’s a QB2 overall, and unusable in bad matchups. BYE-NE-DEN the next three weeks. His last Denver game – 143 yards, 1 TD.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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