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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Week 6 Handicapping Group Picks: Blazing Five

Date:
October 12, 2019

Blazing Five YTD:

18-7 (72.0%) = Colin (4-1 last wk)

15-10 (60.0%) = RC (5-0)

14-10-1 (58.3%) = Savage (3-1-1)

14-11 (56.0%) = Katz (3-2)

12-13 (48.0%) = Skol (3-2)

12-13 (48.0%) = Rabbitt (3-2)

 

Well, a few tweaks to the system last week and ‘pow’…you go 5-for-5 in the Blazing Five. Not easy to do. I’m impressed with it because each win was pretty strong…not a lot of luck or weirdness – just The Computer identifying the right teams winning…including underdogs outright winning. A great week, coming off a bad one, to ‘right’ the ship.

Note – My spread projections/differentials…my system is built to look at the week in a bubble. The key injuries (which are somewhat unknown for some teams yet) factor in. Betting trends in general for what’s working on home/away, off a bye, etc., are factored in. It’s not a system that is trying to say X team is Y points better than Z team in general…it’s my computer model trying to tell me which teams have the best betting characteristics (that have been working prior) going into THIS PARTICULAR WEEK  + the injuries + how the team has been playing recently, etc.


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COLIN:

 

CLE

NYJ

JAX

TEN

ATL

 

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RC:

 

TEN at DEN (-2.0)

The Computer says: TEN by 12.1…Spread Differential 14.1

The Computer has loved this all week – an outright dog upset of the home favorite Broncos. Heavy run game vs. a defense that gets so exposed trying to stop the run game.  

 

SEA (-1.5) at CLE

The Computer says: CLE by 11.9…Spread Differential 13.4

Everyone seems to love this bounce back game for CLE so much it scares me that we’re all universally on the same page. The public is on Seattle HEAVY (pre-Friday), the so called ‘sharps’ are coming in after Cleveland…this line dropped to -2.5 to -1.5 SEA for our Friday B5…but is now -1.0 on Saturday.

 

DAL (-7.0) at NYJ

The Computer says: DAL by 17.0…Spread Differential 10.0

I think the Jets O-Line and Sam Darnold are going to get exposed for the frauds they are. So many people were convinced the Jets were ‘that team’ but with their boy Darnold out –the narrative got paused but now he’s back meaning the Super Bowl run can resume, I guess. They’re about to find out how bad this Jets offense is – and playing a desperate, frustrated Dallas team isn’t helping them this week.

 

HOU at KC (-4.0)

The Computer says: KC by 12.8…Spread Differential 8.8

This is a classic ‘last week’ bias game – because Houston put up big numbers against terrible Atlanta (and some luck, they almost lost) last week while the Chiefs laid an egg on national TV…now, we’re supposed to hate the Chiefs and live the Texans? The line keeps sinking as money pours in on Houston.

I LOVE THIS BET on KC, and I’m not a KC guy…I think they’re overrated…but Houston is radically overrated right now.

 

CAR (-2.0) at TB

The Computer says: CAR by 9.0…Spread Differential 7.0

This is just a really good team beats a really bad team on a neutral field.

 

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SAVAGE:

 

49ers +3 - Everything I've watched this year indicates the 49ers are the better in this matchup. Just consider their common opponents: the 49ers handled the Bucs on the road and crushed the Browns at home. The Rams gave up 55 points to the Bucs and struggled to beat Cleveland. The Rams just aren't that elite 2018 team anymore. Their offensive line has taken a major hit. Their defense is mediocre at best and now will be missing Aqib Talib. I think the 49ers have a great chance to get a statement win here and I don't see them losing by more than a field goal.

 

Browns +1.5 - If you're willing to accept the 49ers as one of the better teams in the league, then you also have to forgive the Browns for getting crushed by them on the road. Cleveland got outplayed, but they also caught a few bad breaks that caused the game to get out of hand. The Seahawks don't deserve to be 4-1 and I think we see the Browns punish them in this game.

 

Ravens - 11 - I don't think the Ravens are a very good team, but this seems like the type of game they win convincingly to throw everyone off the scent. The Bengals' line-play is terrible. They can't protect Dalton or stop anyone on defense. I think the Ravens will have their way with them at home.

 

Titans +2 - The Titans are pretty simple: when they can run the ball, they either win or play a close game. Even on the road this week, I think they'll be able to run the ball against this below average Broncos run defense.

 

Steelers +7 - The Chargers have quietly been a bad team this year. Their two wins were against the Dolphins, who they struggled with for 3 quarters, and the Colts, who they beat in overtime. On top of that, they're probably the most injured team in the league. The Steelers are injured too, but they continue to play tough and make teams beat them. I think they'll put a fight here too and keep the game close.

  

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SKOL:

 

CLE  +1.5...CLE strength of schedule has been tough and the SEA SOS has been easy...I think the young Browns come home and get a win with the DBs returning to the lineup...this defense can get some heat on R.Wilson I think. 


MIN   -3...If the Eagles can stop the run, I’m decently confident that Cousins can get the ball down the field at least one more week against this Eagles secondary.  I think the Eagles offense will miss D Jax in this game. 


LAR    -3...To much, to soon for SF in my opinion...they beat a Flu ridden TB team, then CIN, then the Steelers backup QB, then the Browns as they zig zagged the country in a brutal travel spot.  Lost 2 OL and their FB and I think that will impact this SF offense on the road this week.  BTW I think their D is a bit overrated as well.


DAL -7...the OL injuries concern me but I’ll trust DAL D here and I think there is irrational exuberance for the Darnold return. 


PIT +7...Mostly a LAC fade...still to many injuries on LAC defense so I’ll trust the Steelers to find points and I like their D vs Rivers and friends. 

 

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KATZ:

 

CLE +1.5

LAR -3.5

DAL -7.0

CAR -2.0

KC -5.0



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>