Two handicapping enthusiasts/experts (RC Fischer and Jason Katz) going through an NFL team’s schedule to examine the logic of betting early win total over/unders and division title bets, etc. We are going back and forth on email and the transcripts of that are below.
Just casual conversation as-is, so forgive any typos, misspells, etc.
And now, a look at the Dallas Cowboys 2018 schedule in Four Parts (because it’s a lot of words…and to build the drama -- with a surprise/nonsensical bonus content at the very end!!)…
2018 Cowboys Schedule Discussion (All four chapters/June 2018)
Katz: The Cowboys' regular season win total sits at 8.5 with the juice ever so slightly on the over at -120 - at least on my book. Without reviewing the schedule and just considering what I know about this team, it's propensity to go 8-8, Jason Garrett's complete nothingness, and the lack of skill position talent outside of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, my gut reaction is to say under.
But that's what we're here to do - replace that gut reaction with some actual analysis. The Cowboys actually don't start out against the Giants. Week 1 this season is at Carolina. The Panthers are currently listed as 2.5 point favorites. That line is just begging you to take Carolina. So I kinda like Dallas? Are we willing to give them a road win to open the season against a good team?
RC: Before we predict game #1, to set a baseline...how do we feel about the 2018 Dallas Cowboys in general? I want to hate them after watching this Amazon doc but when they have Lee-Smith-Elliott-Bailey in tact they're a top 10 team. When they lose one of them they are .500 at best, when they lose two of them they suck -- like they did late last year minus those guys.
It's easy to fear the 'what if they don't have guys'...but isn't it a generic 10+ win team if the key guys are healthy? Dak-Lee-T.Smith.
Their defense, at full strength is top 10. Their O-line top 1-3-5. Legit QB. Legit RB. Plausible WRs. Good special teams. Is the upside top 10 in the league with a floor of bottom 10 if one of the big 3 go down (Dak-Lee-T.Smith)? If so, how maddening to predict the season...do we assume Lee or Smith healthy all year or not? They pretty much changes everything for me on how I look at these games.
Katz: I, too, have this natural urge to vomit at the thought of my favorite team actually producing because of how poorly they are run, but we need to remember that the value of coaching is typically overstated by the mainstream. It's the players that determine the outcomes of these games. For all their failings in the coaching department, the roster is loaded with talent. So let's assume Jason Garrett continues to be a nothing - he doesn't actively cost the Cowboys games, but he doesn't do anything to increase the win potential. That puts the entire onus on the players. Are the players good enough to get to 10 wins? I think undoubtedly the answer is yes. Health is a concern and Sean Lee is not playing 16 games, but Tyron Smith didn't miss a game for his first five seasons and still only missed three each of the last three seasons. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume 16 games off the bat. I think we assume 10-12 games from Lee and 16 from Smith for the purposes of this analysis.
RC: OK, one more thing before we get to Week 1. Jaylon Smith is the abomination among middle linebackers, he is a wholesale disaster. Am I right?
So Dallas top 10 defense with Lee. Byron Jones potential shutdown CB out of nowhere. Great D-Line when healthy. Top kicker when healthy. Top 10 or so QB. Top 1-3-5 O-Line. RB, who cares. WRs...plausible enough to win if everything else is hitting.
Katz: I think you're being a little hard on Jaylon Smith. The fact that he can even contribute at all is a minor miracle. He made some plays last season. He also missed some plays. He will never be the top prospect he was coming out of college (and should serve as a cautionary tale to other top prospects: STOP PLAYING IN MEANINGLESS BOWL GAMES), but if the Cowboys can understand that, and use him as a rotational player, he can have use. He will never justify the early second round pick spent on him, but that doesn't mean he will be a complete bust. He should probably play the outside more, though. Give him less responsibility.
RC: The Week 1 game at Carolina may be the harbinger for how the whole season is going to go for the Cowboys. The game is at Carolina, so little edge right away to Carolina in general. Dallas has a nice defense, but more mobile QBs can neutralize their pass rush gifts (struggled with Wentz, Wilson, Rodgers last year) -- they're much better stuffing traditional run games to me. Carolina, on the other hand, is at it's best when Luke Kuechly is stuffing traditional run games like Dallas. Kuechly is the better Sean Lee. I think mobile QB/Cam + Carolina run defense (vs. predictable Dallas) + 'at' Carolina = a Dallas win.
I think big picture Dallas is the better NFL team than Carolina, but this is not a good matchup for Dallas out of the gates. Dallas losing this game sets in on a course for the dreaded 8-8. A win...a win here really changes the landscape to where Dallas takes a big step in playoff and division title hopes -- it's that big a game right out of the gates. What say you?
Katz: I must say I will miss the gift of the free week 1 win each year against the Giants. I've found that whenever there's a line that kind of makes you question whether you should take one team - in this case Carolina only laying 2.5 because the idea that they could win by a field goal and cover is appealing to bettors - it tends to be a bit of a trap. However, that is rarely the case with Dallas. If Dallas is the home team laying 2.5, they lose. If they're the road team getting 2.5 they also lose. It's what they do. I have no confidence in Dallas to win this game and it is the type of game a playoff team needs to win. It's not an imposing matchup, but it's not an easy one. It's winnable, but Dallas won't win it. The 0-1 start could also carry over into week 2 where the Cowboys drop what should be an easy win against the Giants.
RC: We agree on the 0-1 start with a loss to Carolina, but then you have to favor Dallas in Week hosting NYG on Sunday Night Football. A Giants more made for Dallas to come at -- Eli lead footed in the pocket and Dallas should control the line of scrimmage and let EE at the weak NYG linebackers and safeties. Dallas wins this to go to 1-1...and if Dallas beats Carolina Week 1, you;re right...then they'll lose this one here. The perpetual 8-8 squad is 1-1 after two weeks, right?
Eli was sacked 3 or more times in a game 6 times and was 1-5 with 6 TDs/4 INTs and 240 or less passing yards five times. In 2016, he was sacked 3 or more times just twice...1-1 record, 2 TD/1 INT under 200 yards passing both times. Happened to beat Dallas but don’t let that ruin my beautiful stat argument.
Katz: Dallas will find a way to beat the Giants at Jerry World on Sunday night. Either way, 1-1 after week 2 seems right. There will be another big test coming in week 3. It's a tough spot at Seattle, but Seattle is a bad team with an offensive coordinator who might legitimately be the worst in NFL history. This is not an exaggeration. Anyone whose game plan is to run the ball when the other team knows they're gonna run has to be in consideration for dumbest coach in NFL history. Be that as it may, Seattle still has Russell Wilson and he's already beaten the Cowboys by himself in the past. This is a game the Cowboys should win, which is why I know it is a game they won't win. Cowboys fall to 1-2 after week 3. Jason Garrett follows the game up with a fiery expletive laden speech that no one listens to and a "Dallas Cowboys on three" that is barely audible.
RC: I don't think you're giving enough credit to Dowell Loggains for how awful an O-C he is... Seattle has somehow constructed one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL and just added Ryan Grigson to the personnel side if you think they couldn't make their organization any worse. It's fascinating to watch Seattle destroy its own self in a matter of 2-3 years. They got lucky that Russell Wilson fell in their lap...and it's that Russell Wilson, at home, that probably gets them by Dallas. Like with Carolina, I don't think Dallas matches up well with a highly mobile QB. I agree with you, Seattle with an ugly win and Dallas falls to 1-2.
After the game, on Monday staff meeting, Garrett will say the loss is his fault and he needs to do a better job as a coach...reciting a line he's probably said a hundred times because he thinks it's really magnanimous and clever to do as a leader. He will take the blame in staff meeting, he will ask players to go home and think about what kind of players they want to be, every other word will be an F-bomb...only Haley Joel Osment will respond to him. Onto Week 4 hosting Detroit.
Katz: Jason Garrett will host a coaches meeting to prepare for the game, but before he can actually get started with a presumably important meeting (nothing of relevance will be said, but, in theory, the meeting should matter), Jerry Jones will be sure to interrupt Garrett and make sure that Garrett performed the extremely important act of opening the meeting with "How we doin' boys?" because that is top priority. Then Garrett will proceed to talk about how they need to stop #9 (because talking about players using their jersey numbers is apparently what the cool kids do) because #9 can "really throw the football." We should just stop going through the schedule to predict wins and losses and give our pretend and all too realistic narrative of how Garrett and the Cowboys will actually plan for games. I digress.
The Lions are another perennial underachieving team. Consistently good, not great. On the road, they're not beating Dallas. The Lions have no running game to speak of and their WRs, while good, aren't the super athletic types that give the Cowboys trouble. This game will actually likely be uglier than one would think - a sneaky under play good be smart here - and the Cowboys will ride Zeke 30 times en route to a victory.
RC: The inexplicable Lions linebacker group gives up 200+ rushing yards and Dallas salts away a victory as Kerryon Johnson tries to jump over the 50-yard line and trips over it for no gain one too many times as Zach Zenner watches from the sidelines with a single tear running down his cheek. The 8-8 Boys are now 2-2.
We’re onto Houston...and Dallas is getting screwed with facing highly mobile QBs on the road early (Cam, Wilson, Watson) — we have to mark Week 5 as a likely loss, no? They actually may have worked against mobile qbs enough that they sneak this one out from limp armed Watson. However, I’ll just assume there is no coaching prep or plan for a pure spread and they get dropped by the Texans.
RC: In other words, Week 5...Deshaun Watson/a.k.a. ‘#4’ will not be ‘kept in the well’ by Dallas.
Katz: I wish that game was in Dallas, but either way, it's actually the type of game the Cowboys win. The Texans will have just as much trouble with Dak as the Cowboys have with Watson. Now granted Watson has a DHop while Dak has but a Hurns. So that's not good. But I don't see the Texans as a very good team this year. I anticipate a game that looks like Seattle vs Houston last year. Watson will generate a lot of offense and he will also turn the ball over. Dak won't.
As we conduct this discussion, David Irving was once again suspended for four games to start the year. I'm not sure how much that matters, but I felt like it was worth mentioning. I'm probably the most pessimistic Dallas fan ever, but I am going to give them a win here.
RC: I think considering it's a Sunday Night road game...you have to give the 'logic' edge to the home Houston team. Not that Dallas can't and won't win this game, but on the road in prime time with an 8-8 type opponent...the edge has to go to the Texans, on paper. I say we have to be 2-3 here...and maybe you think Jags defeat Dallas Week 6, but I say Jacksonville is tailor-made to be beaten by Dallas, and at Dallas/home -- so are we good with 3-3, however we get there, after Week 6?
Katz: Yes, that's fair. I still feel better about a road win against Houston than a home win against Jacksonville, but I wouldn't be shocked if it were reversed or if the Cowboys won or lost both. Basically any possible outcome wouldn't surprise me. So let's go with 3-3 after week 6.
RC: Week 7 at Washington. I could either way on this game, and it's another one of those games that defines a season potentially. I think Washington is a good team, and would have been a playoff team last year had they not been devastated by injury on both sides of the ball. They may be better with Alex Smith than Kirk Cousins. Because I think Washington is in that 8-8 zone trying to fight to 9-7+, in the battle of two 8-8 type teams...I give the home team the win on paper.
Again, bizarrely this season...Dallas is getting no help from the schedule in that it's constant good or great mobility QBs, and Alex Smith is another...and then Marcus Mariota next game, and then Wentz may loom after that. Dallas's ability or failures against mobile QBs is going to define the season, and I fear they don;t have the coaching that will keep them poised for the challenges.
I also look ahead a bit and I see a green light coming...if Dallas can hang in there early, they have a chance to finish this season strong due to scheduling. But right now, before their bye, I say 3-4 with a loss to Washington.
Katz: Dallas beat Washington twice last year. Alex Smith may be more mobile than Cousins, but I do not believe he is a better quarterback. The Cowboys will take both against Washington again. Home/road doesn't really mean much for Dallas because they have one of the worst home field advantages in sports. I generally have a good feel for games they will win and games they will lose. I know this goes against everything I stand for because I'm not really a "gut" or "feel" type person, but the Cowboys spit in the face of logic. They have the talent to beat anyone so it's really all we've got. They'll beat Washington and Tennessee and lose to the Eagles regardless of who is at QB.
RC: I think Washington is one of the minor sleeper playoff hopeful teams for 2018, and I would mark it down as a loss. I will acquiesce to your victory claim and explain why down the road of this schedule look. 4-3 Dallas heading into a BYE week and coming out with the Titans. I think off a BYE week, and me despising everything I've seen with Mike Vrabel, and at home and Monday Night for Dallas -- I agree with a win to go to 5-3.
I'll then also agree to a Week 10 loss at Philly on a short week, facing a better team at their place. Which sets up 5-4 Dallas heading to a very pivotal game at Atlanta -- because Atlanta likely to be rumbling around looking for a wild card like Dallas. Where are you going at Atlanta? Natural road loss or Chaz Green has his revenge?
Katz: Dallas is a better team than Atlanta, but that was the case last year as well. This is another one of those type of games the Cowboys find a way to lose. Jason Garrett will "game plan," and I use that term very loosely, to stop Julio Jones. It won't work. Julio will go for 8-150-2, but the Cowboys will still be in the game. They'll settle for a field goal late when a touchdown would ice the game and Matt Ryan will march right down with about two minutes left and hit Julio on a fade, giving the Cowboys flashbacks to Aaron Rodgers firing a back shoulder strike to Davante Adams. The Falcons are built similarly to the Packers - they're like a lesser version - and the Cowboys just don't beat those type of teams. This season will involve a bunch of one score games and it's the little things that make all the difference. While the impact of coaching is often overstated, coaching can certainly make the difference in one score games - and it will. Cowboys fall to 5-5 and lose the wild card tiebreaker over Atlanta, which will probably matter.
RC: I actually like the Cowboys here on three fronts: (1) Revenge from the beat down last year on missing Tyron Smith. (2) Atlanta becoming 8-8 rando team with their terrible, awful O-C Steve Sarkasian. (3) The X-factor...Byron Jones man-to-man with Julio Jones. If Byron Jones develops into a shutdown corner, as he was designed by God to be, and people start praising the Dallas coaches for this I will lsoe my mind -- WHY WASN'T JONES ALREADY PLAYING CB SINCE DAY ONE!!!
But, given that this game is at Atlanta and these two teams are random 8-8 marbles rolling around in a box, I'll go with you and give Atlanta the win to make up for the win we gave Dallas at Washington earlier. The Cowboys are now 5-5 and about to hit a very weird, potentially advantageous schedule stretch -- and it starts with three hoem games with tough, playoff caliber teams -- hosting WAS-NO-PHI Weeks 12-14.
I assume you are giving Dallas the Washington win, but what about the NO-PHI back-to-back with two of the top teams in the NFL?
Katz: Yes, I give Dallas the win vs Washington. The home stand makes you think the Cowboys will go at least 2-1, but as I mentioned previously, home field advantage is virtually nonexistent for the Cowboys. The Saints are also the type of team that always beats Dallas, no matter how good Dallas is. Drew Brees will do Drew Brees things when the time comes. It will be a competitive game and then when the defense needs a big stop late, they don't get it.
The Philly game is more winnable, but I'm inclined to go loss there as well, pushing the Cowboys to 6-7 with three weeks to play.
RC: I would like to advance that the Dallas Cowboys will go 2-1 in the three-game home field stretch, even against the likes of WAS-NO-PHI. I think Dallas is built to beat the Saints and I think they will roll the Eagles 2nd-time around. I could see a 3-0 stretch, but that's a 'stretch', so I go 2-1 to make Dallas 7-6.
I was thinking about your lack of confidence in Dallas, and both are shock and horror at the Dallas coaching staff via the Amazon doc...and we want to punish the Cowboys or disbelieve. The very overlooked fact of the matter of this collection of talent, which is one of the best in the league (best with a real coach), is that they are 20-4 (twenty and freaking four) with Sean Lee playing/healthy in the last 26 games, including playoff loss, (ignoring the ATL game in 2017 where he left very early and 2017 Week 17 vs. PHI when all backups played). The games Lee didn't play + the ATL left early game the past two seasons...Dallas is 1-4. This is really a 10-6 team that gets injured to 8-8. I think they are better than the Eagles, except you can't bet them serious because one star falls...Jason Garrett has no answer.
In this perfect prediction world of 2018, Sean Lee and Tyron Smith healthy...I say Dallas goes 2-1 in Weeks 12-14 and is 7-6 heading into a very favorable three-game stretch with @IND, TB, @NYG.
Katz: I admire the sentiment. I really do. And this coaching staff does have one thing going for it - if the players are on the field, the coaching staff won't get in the way. It won't help at all, but it won't actively undermine the players the way someone like Jeff Fisher or John Fox would cost their teams wins. Teams that suffer the fewest significant injuries tend to have good seasons. But as we've seen and we agree, if anything, and I mean anything, goes wrong, this coaching staff has zero ability to make adjustments. So the "fix" is purely however talented the next man up is. If the Cowboys stay healthy, I agree this team can win 10-12 games. So I'll allow your 2-1 homestand even though I disagree with it.
One of the reasons I don't want to accept it is because that final three game stretch should be three wins. Both road games should be wins because the Colts have no defense and the Giants just find ways to lose to the Cowboys now, but maybe the Cowboys drop one. Tampa has no shot in Dallas. I actually had a twitter discussion with someone recently who prefers Jameis Winston to Dak Prescott. The individual in question said Jameis is around a league average QB, in the 14-16 range. Curious to know your thoughts on that?
RC: I think the 2-1 home stretch rolls into those final three games where your theory then comes correct -- they should win those three, but they'll find a way to lose one and go 2-1 versus at IND, TB, at NYG. If you agree...we would then see the always 8-8 Dallas Cowboys at a 9-7 finish. And I think it's a perfect place -- this is a 10-6 or better collection of talent, coached to an 8-8 output (because they won't put the right players in the right spots at the right time in a crisis)...so, the marriage of the two is a 9-7 finish.
That being the case, it puts Dallas as likely not winning the division but maybe if Philly falls to 9-7, which is very possible...or it puts them fighting for a wild card, and in the very good, tough NFC...9-7 is likely not good enough. I could very much see a Dallas 9-7 finish that was one game short of a division title and one game short of a wild card, and then they are content enough that they won't fire Garrett and friends and we continue in this 9-7 cycle until Jerry's grandson replaces Dak at QB in 2020...then they fall to a perpetual 0-16.
Winston is an NFL cancer...as I've maintained from day one when NO ONE else in football analysis would hear of such a thing. Now, people are coming over to my side. He's one of the five worst starting QBs in the NFL...highly inaccurate, cannot read defenses, forces almost all of his passes, completes passes when defenses play zone to try to snag him in their web of him making the wrong throw, or dump passes to RBs in games they are losing and he picks up cheap yards. It's bad enough that he's a bad QB but he's no one you want leading your team. NFL people try to sell him as a leader but he is nothing of the sort. He's selfish, clueless, and not serious about his craft. He talks a good game but he's a con artist...been conning coaches, the media and police investigators all his life.
Dak is everything Winston is not, as a QB and as a human/leader...and you don't see the national media rally to Dak and push/promote Dak like they tried to with Winston. The football establishment is starting to back off Winston's push because they see he is bordering on hot garbage, they are just tip toeing out quietly so you don't notice how wrong they were. There should be nothing but skepticism and criticism of Winston right now...instead, crickets from the national football media. They're too busy telling you how Jared Goff is a fluke and how Nick Foles was just lucky all the time to tell you how terrible Winston is.
What say you?
Katz: Going through this game by game was fun. We'll get some right, some wrong, but in the end, this team is going 9-7. This team went 8-8 for three consecutive seasons and in all three, they had a week 17 game for the division and lost all three. It's what they do. They are consistently not quite good enough. That was back when 8-8 just missed and 9-7 was good enough. Now, in the revamped NFC, 10-6 is good enough and 9-7 just misses, so the Cowboys have adapted with the times. It may not be exactly how we mapped it out, but this team will find a way to go 9-7, which will be a game short of the division and either the same out of the wild card or they'll lose via tiebreaker.
However, where I disagree with you, is on the fate of Jason Garrett. I don't even think it matters if they go 11-5 and somehow miss the playoffs. If this team doesn't get in the dance this year, Garrett is gone. I want to say he has to get in and at least win a game, but I won't go that far. I do think he has to get in though. Jerry definitely enjoys his puppet. And man I am so excited for you to get up to the episode of All or Nothing where Jerry completely emasculates Garrett by making sure he asked "How we doin' boys?" at the beginning of a meeting, but ultimately, Jerry, for all his flaws, and there are many, wants to win. He'll likely replace Garrett with nobody of consequence, but at least he'll feel like he's doing something.
And I appreciate the comments on Jameis. I was starting to say he's probably not bottom 5 and then I was thinking about it - Bortles and whoever starts for the Bills - that's all I've got. Do I really have Jameis ranked as my #30 starting QB? And that's not to mention the backups I would have ahead of him (Teddy and Foles come to mind). Ranking real life QBs is always a fun exercise.
RC: Garrett should be fired but I think Jerry has a soft spot or weird loyalty or likes controlling or whatever -- and if really 9-7...it's hard to fire a guy for 9-7. 8-8, done. 9-7 with a strong finish but out of the playoff picture for the last two weeks of 2018...likely done. BUT in it to the end and just getting unlucky Week 17 to not get in with a 9-7 record, I think Jerry goes one more time around. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I would love to see him go 9-7, get fired, and then watch what totally brain dead franchise hires him in an instant. Probably Tampa to 'fix' Jameis Winston...I mean to fix 'number three'.
Let's just figure it out now on bad QBs with a reverse draft. We're both NFL GMs. Six picks, 3 each...we won't go 6 picks without one of us trying to dump Winston each other. You pick the worst QB you can give the other guy...trying to stick each other with the worst three (starting today) QBs as if we are starting a pretend 'expansion team' with. I'll go first since I thought of it.
I will stick you with Blake Bortles, simply the worst QB in the NFL bar none. Who do you counter with forcing upon me with the #2 reverse draft pick?
Katz: I hate that you stuck me with Bortles because he is a blight on quarterback play everywhere. I bet there are CFL QBs better than Bortles. There's a reason Chris Simms said Blake Bortles is his 70th ranked QB. The guy is truly awful and the Jaguars likely make the Super Bowl with literally any other QB last season.
But I am glad you went first because that means I get to stick you with Nate Peterman, the current presumptive starter for the Bills. The only man to ever throw five picks in his NFL debut in just one half of football. I did not fact check that at all because I'm confident I don't need to. And even if he doesn't end up starting, the fact that at any point he was outplaying AJ McCarron is a massive indictment on McCarron. And let's not revisit Josh Allen. You've got Peterman (or McCarron). Now it gets fun!
RC: I wanted to be stuck with real starter A.J. McCarron but Peterman is fine, and I'd take him overall Bortles...so, there...
Now, I will make it worse for you by sticking you with Jameis Winston, and I really mean that. I tried to find one worse so as not to be looking like 'that guy', but he really is the 3rd worst QB in the NFL to me. I considered Joe Flacco...and I more seriously considered Bradford-Tannehill to stick you with guys likely to have their knee snap when a blade of grass strikes it but I went with Winston because I think he hurts morale and the organization on top of being a terribly overrated QB. So, enjoy...
Katz: Damn it. Bortles and Jameis. This is awful. I think I've lost already. I guess I was right. Jameis is the third worst starting QB in the NFL. In all fairness to Jameis, he suffers from many of the league's worst QBs losing their jobs - Deshone Kizer, Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian, Jay Cutler. Is the move to stick you with Joe Flacco now? I think it is. I think I know who you're gonna throw back at me. But Flacco is terrible right now. So you have Flacco. This is the first year we've done this and the last time I'll be able to do this because I don't think Flacco ever starts a game on purpose anymore after this season.
RC: I'm OK with Flacco among the bottom feeders. I think his woes are Jim Harbaugh based like a strain of Jeff Fisher, John Fox-itis. I bet we'll see Flacco get dumped by the Ravens thinking they got rid of trash and then he'll be a veteran hand that goes to some team and has a nice little veteran run in some odd circumstance.
I will give you Mr. Glass...Sam Bradford AND his contract.
And because he extorts a VooDoo curse over NFL owners and coaches...Bradford will do the same to you. You will start him Week 1, and he will tear every ligament in his body running out for the opening game coin toss but you will still give him a 7-year, $400M extension in the offseason because if he can just stay healthy he could throw for 22 TDs and 3,000 yards in a season...and who doesn't want to pay $20M a year for that kind of production?
Katz: I don't think Bradford is that bad...when he plays...which is never. This isn't fair because Bradford's career is going to end by week 4 this season when he retires due to a degenerative knee issue. But you know what, that's actually a win for me. Once Bradford retires, I get a new QB. Instead, I give you Ryan Tannehill. He won't retire. Instead, he'll be just good enough to be better than a replacement QB, but nowhere near good enough to win. The worst possible QB to have. Enjoy years of QB play slightly above the Mendoza line!
RC: Tannehill will be mad at joining my team because I likely won't be as slick as Adam Gase to give him such weapons as Davante Parker, Albert Wilson, and Danny Amendola to work with. I guess I'm starting Flacco Week 1. You know he won a Super Bowl, right? A whisker away from losing that game to Colin Kaepernick...ahhhh, football was so much simpler back then...back when people only disliked Kaepernick because he was a terrible QB. No wait, that was just me -- and I received death and career threats via email because I wasn't on-board that whole year. The topper being people from San Francisco using homophobic slurs to taunt me about how terrible I was at football analysis. Those were the days.
Katz: You'll get the last laugh on Jameis as well, who I will reluctantly have to start week 2 after my week 1 starter, Sam Bradford, remembers that he only has one functional knee.