*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*
*One set of notes per day this week considering the slow/no football news. Once training camp activity starts up then it’s all football all the time the second half of July to the end of the year.
-- Week 1 Vegas Line review: The game with the biggest disparity of my computer’s line and the Vegas line…Cincy at Indy (-3.0)
My computer says Bengals by -7.2. Vegas has crept up to Indy -3.0 from -2.5 on the mere hint that Andrew Luck might be able to throw a Nerf football. We have a 10.2 point spread differential here.
So many reasons why I love the Bengals in this spot:
1) What if Andrew Luck gets shutdown again? This spread goes from -3.0 Indy to probably ‘pick ‘em.
2) Luck has a 10-12 record in his last 22 regular season starts. Yet, the mainstream football analysts have their head’s so far up the rear end of Luck they can’t see straight. They think Luck returning makes the Colts a playoff contender. They guy was last relevant in 2014. He hasn’t been able to throw a football for real in over a year. This Colts team/roster is awful. But, somehow, Luck is going to have his arm magically heal and take a bad team and make them a contender.
3) The same analysts hate Andy Dalton. Ohh…Andrew Luck won 33 games his first three seasons!!! Andy Dalton won 30 games his first three seasons, it’s not like he’s a dope. But…Dalton has a losing record the last two seasons! So does Luck in his last two seasons.
The hatred for the Bengals and love for ‘Luck’ is a great opportunity here. The Bengals have a better defense overall, and at every position group on defense. The Bengals have a better O-Line, WRs, RBs, TEs and yield a little bit at QB, but won’t yield anything if Luck can’t play.
My computer models are screaming about how good the Bengals might be this year, and how underrated/over dramatized what they did last year was.
I love, love, love the Bengals +3.0 for the outright win Week 1.
If Luck is seen throwing a football forward, on tape the next week or two, this line jumps to -4.0 Colts. If Luck is declared ‘full go’ healthy for camp, it will jump to -4.5 or -5.0. I’d take more nibbles at Cincy then.
-- Coming up on FFM and CFM:
A projection of where each Supplemental Draft prospect will land, drafted or not (CFM).
XC v. RC ‘Faux’ look at the NFC East and Very Deep Sleeper episode #10…one publishes today the other tomorrow, not sure which is which yet. FantasyPros determines the VDS publish.
Next Draft Guide update: Wednesday 7/11/2018.
A look at the top 5 QB prospects for 2019 publishes on CFM Thursday (planned, subject to change).
*The 2018 Draft Guide package of reports and ever-updating projections/rankings are now available from the FFM home page. Fantasy Football Metrics
*Note: my new football email email@example.com, as I ditch corporate email.
*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).
See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics