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2018 Dynasty-Fantasy Daily Notes 7/11/18

Date:
July 11, 2018 9:15 AM
July 11, 2018 7:00 AM

*Quick notes, moving fast on them...forgive any typos*

*One set of notes per day this week considering the slow/no football news. Once training camp activity starts up then it’s all football all the time the second half of July to the end of the year.

 

Wednesday Notes…

Obviously, the big news in football right now is the LeSean McCoy situation. We have the standard ‘innocent until proven guilty’ start point -- but looking at the details of this case are scary. If I were a betting man, I’d plunk my dollar down that McCoy is going to jail and will never play football again. But I’m not betting much more than a dollar.

The short version of what’s happening that I can piece together through reading different media accounts:

 -- McCoy and his ex-girlfriend used to live together in the house where the crime took place.

 -- After breaking up (unsure for how long prior to this), his ex-girlfriend continued to stay in the house with her child/children.

 -- McCoy went through legal proceedings to try to get her evicted out of his home, PLUS demanded she return various belongings (including specific jewelry, allegedly)

 -- When the ex-girlfriend did not heed eviction notices, the police came to evict but she was out of town. The security cameras tipped the ex-girlfriend off to the police arriving for eviction and she called the police and the eviction/removal of her stuff was halted.

 -- The ex-girlfriend came back and continued to live in said home.

 -- McCoy installed new security cameras he was in control of without telling his ex-girlfriend (which, he owns the property, so…). Supposedly, the ex-girlfriend disabled those cameras.

 -- A targeted home invasion occurred with the assailant beating the woman and asking for specific items (allegedly), including the jewelry McCoy seemed interested in (allegedly).

 

It’s a very ‘shady’, if you will, set of circumstances for this to be just a random home invasion.

Supposedly, McCoy discussed marriage in May but by June was in court trying to evict her in June, and then this happened in July. No real confirmation on the marriage discussions, just something ‘out there’.

Adding fuel to the fire – a friend of McCoy’s ex-girlfriend went to social media posting pictures of the battered woman and called McCoy ‘the devil’ and she dropped allegations of him beating his dog and his kids, and claiming she knows of his steroid use in the past.

McCoy is denying all of this.

 

Historically with McCoy:

 -- In 2016, McCoy was in hot water for potential participation in a night club fight/beating of two off duty police officers.

 -- The ex-girlfriend used to run around with the Vick brothers (Michael and Marcus) was involved in some he-said/she-said social media insults and veiled allegations back when Michael Vick was a thing 5-6-7 years ago. I’m not 100% but it looks like she bounced from Marcus Vick to McCoy, and Marcus was not happy. Anyone hanging with Marcus Vick has to have questionable judgement, in my opinion.  

It’s a lot of bad actors in play here.

 

One of four things happened, I assume…

1) This was truly a random attack and McCoy has nothing to worry about. Possible…but the events leading up to this definitely give the impression this was not very random.

2) This was all actually planned by the ex-girlfriend to set up McCoy, but the beating she took would tell me that she didn’t plan it…but who knows with this crew of sketchy characters.

3) McCoy was the one who planned this after trying to get the woman evicted and failing. Staged to look like a random home invasion while McCoy was far away. McCoy has not been a choir boy in his past and often runs with an entourage so it’s not unfathomable.

4) One of McCoy’s entourage went rogue and did this on his own and was hoping to try to impress McCoy after he retrieved the jewelry. This has possibilities…and also allows the ‘out’ if someone gets paid to take a fall to protect McCoy.

 

The stage is set for this to be a real-life Law & Order that’s going to get micro examined and knowing the characters McCoy has been around – when a light gets flashed here a bunch of human rats are going to scurry. This very much has the potential to get very ugly, very fast, and be a headline news story for the NFL for weeks leading into the regular-season.

I’m a fantasy analyst, so I have to discuss the fantasy aspect…

Fantasy-wise, I’m not trying to buy McCoy cheap unless it was dirt cheap…because, maybe, it was random or a set up? And I’ve seen enough Reuben Foster cases where ‘magically’ charges get dropped by the person assaulted. It feels like 90% of the time the player looks very guilty at first reporting, the woman takes to social media with pretty rough info, sometime after the event the assaulted woman turns on a dime and drops the case – I assume, when the out of court money offer is good enough. McCoy has a lot of money to work with, in theory.

If I hold McCoy in fantasy, I sell if someone gives me a life preserver deal for him…an upside RB2.5 or WR2 I really want. But, I’m guessing offers involving RB and WR3s and 4s and 3rd-round rookie draft picks will be bottom fished around for your McCoy. Instead of giving away McCoy in a panic, I just hold and see it through to the end and may wind up with a nothing, a jailed RB who I have to cut.

If, let’s say, McCoy is an 8 out of 10 value before this. I’d take a 7-value player today I was really interested in for him, but when 4-5-6 value players are offered – you might as well hold and just go down with the ship if it happens.

If McCoy is gone in 2018, what happens with the Buffalo RB situation? We’ll be addressing that in our draft guide update today. It’s not as easy/simple as “Chris Ivory becomes ‘the man’.”

A lot of moving pieces here and I’m always shocked how they turn out…usually with the player skating away clean. However, this one has more potential of premeditation and evidence of things beforehand. It’s going to be ‘interesting’ to say the least.

 

 -- FFM and CFM events…

Draft Guide update today.

Don’t forget -- Supplemental Draft for the NFL today.

Very Deep Sleepers should post sometime today, if not the next XC v. RC installment will post on FFM instead or our next Rewind report may be ready to go. All of these things posting the next three days.

Top five 2019 QB preview scouting planned to post Thursday on CFM.

 

Starting work on the top 2019 RB prospect preview. It looks like the consensus top 5 are:

Bryce Love, Stanford

Damien Harris, Alabama

Justice Hill, Oklahoma State

David Montgomery, Iowa State

Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic

Almost made list: L.J. Scott, Rodney Anderson, Mike Weber

 

 

*The 2018 Draft Guide package of reports and ever-updating projections/rankings are now available from the FFM home page. Fantasy Football Metrics

 

*Note: my new football email rc4metrics@gmail.com, as I ditch corporate email.

*Note: Dynasty Stash reports from FFM 2017 are posted on CFM 2018 (Date 1/7/18, under Scouting Reports tab or search via the searchbar tool).

 

 

See more of our football work at College Football Metrics – dedicated to the NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting and valuations all preseason. Celebrating our 7th season covering all things draft. Go to (link): College Football Metrics 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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