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2018 Handicapping Chat: ATL v. PHI (Week 1 TNF)

Date:
September 6, 2018 5:59 PM
September 6, 2018 5:55 PM

The Handicapping Degenerates are back for 2018...Katz, Rabbitt, RC, Savage, Skol are back for year three of profiteering. It's been an overall profitable two years combined with 2017 having some fantastic individual results, and we're back for more in 2018.

We make all the picks and do a 'Blazing Five' each week, and keep track of our records...and informally chat about games during the week like this (the first of the year):

2017 Weeks 1-16 records (Against the Spread)

The Computer: 123-109-8, Blazing Five: 54-26 (67.5%)

Skolman: 126-106-8, B5: 39-39-2

Savage: 127-105-8, B5: 46-32-2

Rabbitt: 120-112-8, B5: 39-34-2

RC: 117-115-8, B5: 50-39-1

Katz: 110-122-8, B5: 40-35-5

Colin Cowherd: B5… 42-31-2

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2018 Handicapping Chat: ATL v. PHI (Week 1 TNF)

*All casual email chat, forgive any typos, etc.

RC: This line has succumbed to the 'Foles drop'...the pure hatred of Nick Foles has taken this opening line of -4.0 Philly, to -3.0 Philly this summer with Wentz rumors, and now that there's no Wentz it's down to -2.0, I suspect headed to -1.0 tomorrow.

Is anyone even playing this game, and why? Who are you picking, if not betting it (come on you have to bet first game of the year!).

Katz: Damn it. I bet it at 2.5. I should've waited even longer. I love the Eagles here. Super Bowl champions at home. The Eagles are the better team. No Alshon is probably a plus for me because I think he stinks. The Eagles have the superior offensive line and superior defense. I am all in on Philly starting 1-0.

Rabbitt: I am all in on the eggles here. Their defense and offensive line is pretty incredible. Feel like the special teams unit for the falcons is pretty average, and phillys is really good. My only worry is the lack of weapons on the Eagles. They have Ertz, Dallas... and who exactly? Even with that, 24-17 eagles seems likely to me.

Savage: I've been waiting for this to drop to -1, looks like it finally did. The Eagles are, at worst, even with the Falcons with Foles at QB. You're getting 2+ points for free.

By the way, I've had a couple discussions about this game with friends, casual fans at work, etc. It's amazing to me how many people have mentioned how Foles has struggled in the preseason, and I'm 95% sure none of these people actually watched any Eagles preseason games. They didn't believe in Foles to begin with and now they're desperate to find any evidence that the Super Bowl run was a fluke. We're going to continue to get value with the Eagles as long as Foles is starting, and he might need to win another Super Bowl or 2 for that to change.

RC: I would have gone Atlanta +3.0 against Wentz, but +1.5 against Foles is a no-go. I try never to bet against Foles...especially when he gets a 2-3-4 Vegas point spread shift against him because they think he sucks. I'm a little leery of the defending champs in a Week 1 game in general (the motivations of the opposing team is high...and usually one that got bumped by the Champs prior year), and Philly is coming to battle with Jay Ajayi as their lead and no Alshon Jeffery. I also think the Falcons have a decent team because of their defensive potential.

I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta won, or Foles crushed them. As a bettor, I'm staying away from this game seriously...but I'll put a small play on Foles -1.0/-1.5 just because I crave the action and have to support Foles no matter what.

In case anyone was wondering, Foles is 7-0 in his last 7 games with 20 or more pass attempts in the game.

Minus his last 4 games with the Rams in 2015, Foles is 25-8 and in games with 20+ pass attempts since Week 5 of 2013 (when he rose to power). Man, I hate that guy. I hate winning. Foles is so stupid with all his constant winning...

Skol: Jenkins cried to get the Super Bowl banner out of the locker room because it was distracting the players...anyone concerned about the Eagles playing with a huge Super Bowl banner in their face when they are on the field?!  I mean, there’s gonna be a ceremony and everything!  I’m winding up and ready to throw a fastball on opening night...on the Over.  It’s at 45 now and I’m waiting to see if it drops...yes the playoff game was 25 points but there was some great Red Zone defense in that game.  Early round outdoor playoff games are often slugfests, Thursday Night openers generally are not.  Car/Den scored 41 a few years ago but aside from that there have been some big numbers.  That’s the way I’m choosing to play our Foles love because the Falcons have the revenge factor...all off season to stew about what might have been.  I think both teams will gravitate toward game planning to turn the FGs into TDs.  Actually I’m pretty sure the Eagles figured out how to do that last Jan.  Plus, RPOs are unstoppable, right?!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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