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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 11 (MNF): KC at LAR (-3)

Date:
November 19, 2018 7:18 PM
November 19, 2018 7:50 PM

Savage: The FFM game of the year! The line has hovered around Rams -3 all week, despite the site of the game changing countries. I feel like I've been hearing for a few weeks now that the Rams defense is falling apart and that the Chiefs defense is quietly improving. I'd like to revisit that for a minute, because after watching a good amount of the Raiders/Cardinals game yesterday, I was left wondering how Arizona was able to move the ball and stay close with the Chiefs 2 weeks ago. So is KC's defense really improving, or have they just played a lot of bad offenses? And why do we hate the Rams defense so much? Sure, they gave up to 45 points to the Saints, but that's the best anyone's done this month!

Katz: Am I the only one who thinks we're going to be staring down at a 10-7 halftime score, wondering what went wrong?


Rabbitt: Dear god I hope not.


Savage: I think even if that happens, we still see both teams get into the 30's in the 2nd half.

Rabbitt: I am drooling at the thought of Peters covering Hill. KC's defense is also not good, but my thought is this is Hill's game all day. I think we have a 49-35 KC win highlighted by Hill torching Peters all over the field, leading us to many FF victories.

Go team FFM.

Skol:  I’m on the “square” over here.  And I just saw Rams -3 so I took that as well.  These defenses are awful.  People are trying to make a case of “not that bad” because they hope either or both of these teams will be in the Super Bowl...I don’t think either will because both defenses are awful.  Offenses are amazing and defenses are awful...if it stays under you can have my money.

Rabbitt: The Rams have a shot on D once Talib comes back I think. However... you are right. Both defenses look pretty sad.

RC: Not only will this be 10-7 at the half...it will be a Rams defensive score and a De'Anthony Thomas KR TD accounting for the TDs.

I have a fantasy squad trying to get to 11-0 with Mahomes (Goff as backup), Hunt (with Conner), Cooks-Woods-Hill (3 WR lg), JReyn (flex), Zuerlien starting needing to hit approx 100 PPR points for the win and the BYE/division title -- so this will definitely be a low scoring affair.

Katz: I have four matchups riding on some combination of Goff, Tyreek, Woods, Cooks, and Butker. This needs to look like Patriots-Chiefs. With that being said, I'll take the home team. The public is all over the Chiefs, which is a bit surprising because I really do view this game as a coin flip, in which case I feel like the the lean should be with the home team.

Skol:  I’m in need of a W in the FFPC league as I’m just outside the playoffs  and the site has me as a deserved 5 point underdog...I have T.Hill and Reynolds vs Mahomes and Greg the Leg.  I’m up by 1 so St.Patrick can put the dagger in me.  There certainly is a lot of KC love...the line move and many “experts”.  I just don’t get it.  It’s not out of the question that the Chiefs edge the Bucs for worst defense in the NFL.  I think the Rams go though them like butter.

Rabbitt: As a strong KC better (a sheep I guess) I would just ask who is covering Hill? It will be a shootout, but I take the Chiefs weapons over the Rams. I also get the points. Both Defenses are terrible. The Rams do have a dominating D-line, but I don't think the Chiefs will even attempt to run the ball.

Skol:  Don’t worry...that Rams dominating D line can’t stop the run!  A Chiefs would not shock me...the under would absolutely shock me.  I hear people saying fear a 7 min drive that kills that bet...just as good of a chance that these teams score 14 points in 2 minutes.  I can’t imagine how a 7 min drive happens in this game.  I don’t think either team wants to slow the pace...they are going to have their foot on the pedal from the opening kick

RC: We think this will be a shootout and we joke that it will be the opposite, but why I think this really will be a shootout is -- both of these teams have, on offense, what the Bears (as an example last night) do not. When the Rams or Chiefs get down...they fire right back into the game. When they Rams or Chiefs get the lead they typically keep pressing the gas pedal.

I think they both know they need to score 40+ to win...and they'll go for it. 30 other teams would try to run the ball early to keep it away from the other team (one of the biggest strategy fallacies in sport). The Chiefs might try that but the Rams won't -- it will be pedal to the metal, going for it on a lot of 4th-downs, a lot blitzing by the defense to 'make plays' giving the offense opportunity for big plays. I think this is going to be everything we thought. I would never bet it for real because we all could see either team with the win. I'm just taking the points in a 'pick' because at least I have 3 extra points in the shootout.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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