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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 15 (MNF): NO at CAR (+6)

December 17, 2018 7:44 PM
December 17, 2018 7:42 PM

Savage: This game is suddenly a little less important for the Saints after the Rams loss last night. New Orleans just needs to win 2 out of 3 to clinch the #1 seed. On top of that, New Orleans is playing their 3rd straight road game against a divisional opponent that desperately needs a win to save their season. There's a lot to like about this spot for the Panthers. The case for New Orleans? They dominated this matchup in their 3 meetings last year, winning by 21, 10, and 5. What are you guys expecting tonight?

RC: I want to see if the QB plague continues into this game. Cam had two or more TD passes in a game for 11 straight weeks...until the plague him last week with a zero. Drew Brees had 4-3-4-4 passing TDs in a game Weeks 9-12...and then the QB plague hit and he went 1 and 1 passing TDs the past two weeks, 201 or fewer yards the past three games.

Which QB will survive in order to win this game? You think the Saints have to win to put away the Rams, but the Panthers need this game to stay alive.

Home dogs were 2-1 this week, nearly 3-0 ATS...and two of the home dogs won outright in stunning fashion (PIT and SF). MNF teams at home are 4-0 the past 4 weeks and 3-1 ATS. Home dogs are 12-5 ATS the past three weeks. Something has radically changed within the NFL the last 3 weeks and I dont know what it is...but I know I should just take the home dog on MNF tonight.

Otherwise, I really dont care what happens as long as Curtis Samuel scores 20+ PPR points and/or Ian Thomas scores 15+ fantasy points to semi-spare a bloody Week 15.

Skol: I’ll be a Drew Brees fan tonight...I need him to put up some pre-plague numbers to pull out a FF victory.  This feels like the “right” thing to do is take the points...and I want to be on the other side of the Saints with all of their ATS success but I’m not a Panthers fan.  At 6-2, I thought I was dead but now I have a chance to hit their season win total under 8.5 & 9.  The Panthers secondary is bad so not sure how the Saints don’t get right tonight.  Maybe it’s close but I’m sticking with my office pool confidence pick on New Orleans -6.  The Panthers have played a lot of close games lately...but against some pretty bad teams.  

Katz: I am done attempting to analyze the actual games. The past couple weeks I've been strictly reading the lines and it has worked out quite well. I also would like to find out the record of home underdogs this season as well as home underdogs in prime time. I bet you it's a winning proposition. We've got one of those here. Give me Carolina.

Savage: Home dogs are 41-31-2 this year, according to Team Rankings. Not sure about primetime games.

Rabbitt: After my betting week, I don't think I am going to dip my toes into this one.  However... I do need Kamara stay within two points of mccaffery to be a lock for a pretty decent fantasy pay day.  I'll be cheering for that, so I guess that makes me a Saints fan tonight.

Skol: I was just reading that Cam Jordan sent Cam Newton a bottle of wine after beating them 3 times last year and someone else sent him a broom.  Cam has had both in his locker all year...didn’t realize that happened.   Fired up revenge Cam...good or bad?  I think all revenge is good.  I have to flip to take the points...

RC: Skol...that may be the most valuable piece of info on this game. A motivated Cam is a good thing...and bad for McCaffrey if Cam takes all the short TDs (because Cam has quit running to preserve his body). Maybe Cam throws caution to the wind here and goes back running heavy.

The opposite intel to the Cam inside info...if Carolina covers, I get to .500 in Blazing Five for the first time since like...ever. So, we know that's not happening. I cannot have good things this Saints by 714 points in an NFL record performance. Actually we have Panthers +6.0, so Saints will win 30.1 to 24 in the first fractional game allowed in NFL history.

Opposite of that...the entire year leader in ATS all picks, Savage, is having one of those rough picking weeks we all have once a year...and he's got Carolina tonight too -- that may be a bad sign for Cammy ;)

Skol:  Brees get 35 FF points and the Saints by a FG...everyone ends the week happy and my Carolina Under bet cashes!  Let’s do this!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 


Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>