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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 15 (TNF): LAC at KC (-3.5)

Date:
December 13, 2018 7:04 PM
December 13, 2018 7:02 PM

Savage: This is a tough game to handicap given all the injuries these teams are dealing with.  For the Chiefs, Spencer Ware is doubtful, but they may have Eric Berry for the 1st time this year. We all expect Tyreek to play, but that's not a guarantee, and we won't know how well he'll be able to run until the game starts. For the Chargers, Ekeler has been ruled out and MGIII is looking like a true 50/50 gametime decision. It's tough to tell how much the Chargers miss Gordon right now. On one hand, they've won the two games he missed. On the other hand, they've struggled to run the ball and move the ball in general in both games. Their only first half score against the Steelers was on that weird missed false start play. They didn't get hot until the Steelers started playing not to lose in the 2nd half. The following week they managed only 288 yds and 26 points against the Bengals swiss cheese defense. How are you guys betting this game given all the uncertainty?


Rabbitt: Chiefs all day here. This is a game I will have real money on. The Chiefs pretty much take care of home field advantage if they win this game. The stadium will be rocking. It means to much to the Chiefs for them to lose. Hill will be playing. Reports say he was moving around well at practice.


Katz: Agree here with Rabbitt. I love playing the bounce back narrative. The Chargers are coming off a win, while the Chiefs are coming off a narrow in that kind of feels like a loss. The offense is ready to explode this week. Tyreek will be fine. Pro Football Doc explained how Tyreek is going to have a problem walking, but will look fine while running due to the location of his injury and where he puts pressure on his feet while running vs walking. Ware is out, but running backs don't matter anyway. This line should be closer to 7.


Savage: I agree, I thought the line would be higher. I expected to see it bounce around that 4-6 range. There are a lot of "sharp" bettors that still don't buy the Chiefs because their defense still doesn't have a good statistical profile. Plus there are all the pseudo-experts at the Ringer who picked the Chargers to go to the Super Bowl before the season started.


Skol:  It won’t be a timely joke by the time this posts but I don’t think you guys are considering how Hunter Henry figures into this game?!!I’m on the other side here...I just feel this is not the time of year to lay points with a bad defense.  There’s no positive spin to put on it...KC D stinks.  Chiefs could certainly cover the game but after their hot ATS start I was waiting for the ATS collapse and it’s ON (0-3-1 in the Chiefs last 4) and still most of the money seems to be on the Chiefs in this spot.  Rivers has been bad against the Chiefs...but the Chiefs usually have a defense.  Chiefs won the first meeting but got crushed in yardage.  Last 3 Chiefs home games vs good defenses (BAL, ARI, DEN) KC failed to cover all of them.  KC at home with the better coach...I can see a case to be made...but for me, getting over a FG with the better defense against an overpriced team in a division game...I think that will get the win more times than not.

RC: I just watched that Steven A.Smith event. Wow. https://content.jwplatform.com/previews/pEgMrDlM?exp=1544740800&sig=fea5ab8207dd0c2ed8a5816293b5ed8b

I have confused teams/players, especially college guys...NC State v. NC...or Ole Miss vs. Miss State. I'll start thinking of an Ole Miss player in the Miss State offense or similar. I have done it with a lot of football on the brain. But this is unreal.

The video cuts off/starts past him with how Spencer Ware is key, but that's forgivable...but the Hunter Henry and Derrick Johnson thing takes my breath away. The faces on the other guys is something to behold.

Savage: Wow, that's right up there with Deion calling Kevin Byard a fan.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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