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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 3: NE (-7.0) at DET
RC: Sunday Night Football, we all love and respect New England and we all think Detroit looks terrible...so, I'm sure we'll be in a agreement to lay 7 and run with the Pats. Then, I look at our board and see just a 3-2 consensus for the Pats. What's up with that (says the guy with NE as a Blazing Five)?
Katz: All in on the Lions here. I think the fall of the Patriots is coming. I just don't think this team is particularly good. I am not buying that Josh Gordon will ever be anything. It's been five years. I actually think there's a respectable chance the Lions win outright.
Skol: I like taking a good team who failed to cover on the road to get the job done in the 2nd of back to back road games. I feel like that is much easier to say than type. No B5 for me because it’s a lot of points on the road and the Pats have Miami next so maybe the back door is open again for the Lions? Detroit is terrible so I think 0.00001% chance of an upset...I think all the open teasers will be closed with a win.
RC: I really like this if Darius Slay is out, and I think Brady and friends want to be sure to beat Patricia in a friendly manner. Brady has lost two in a row 5 times since 2007. I don't think they lose this game coming off a Jags loss. They win this game...and just need it to be by 7.0+ for the bet. Chung and Flowers out stings, a lot...I'd yank this from my Blazing Five if I could because of that late breaking development.
The Lions have no run game and Stafford will cough up turnovers. Sam Darnold looked good against the Lions...so, Brady should rip them apart. Lions last in the league in PPG allowed after 2 weeks. High scoring with Pats up big early and Stafford chucking to try to back door cover to the end.
Katz: Stafford was exceptionally bad in Week 1, but I think we can all agree he is much better than that. He is one of the better QBs in the league. He's not Brady, but he does have better weapons than Brady. He's got home field advantage working in his favor. And the lack of a running game is a good thing because the Lions will pass more and passing is better than running. Everyone seems convinced this is a Patriots rout. If nothing else, I'm content with fading the public on this one.
Savage: If this wasn't Brady-Belichick, I'd be all over the Lions as well. The Pats were a 6.5 favorite at home against the Texans in week 1, a game they struggled to put away. They were small favorites in Jacksonville and lost. Now they're 7 point road favorites in Detroit? What exactly have they done to earn a line this high? The answer to that last question, obviously, is they've been the best franchise in the league for 20 years and they never lose two games in a row. That's the only thing that kept the Lions out of my Blazing 5.
And as much as we love the "Pats off a loss" angle, what about "Stafford getting points"? The Patriots defense still seems to have some holes and I think the Lions will be able to score on them. It should be a high scoring game overall, and I think there's a strong possibility of yet another backdoor cover from Stafford.
Rabbitt: In a shoot out, I'll take Brady to cover. I can see a ton of scenarios where this game ends up 35-42, or some other crazy high score close game. But I see a bunch more where the pats just blow them out. Maybe I am putting too much on it being "tom and bill" but I almost never want the other side of those two.
Skol: I think I can answer the question about the line. The Patriots are 1-1 vs two likely playoff teams (losing in extreme heat at Jax which I forgive them for) and the Lions have been hammered by the Jets and 49ers. I think this boils down to half the group taking Det because of Stafford and the other half taking the Pats because of Stafford. I get taking Detroit because they are back door specialists and the Pats may be ok just getting out of there with MIA on deck. I feel pretty good about the Patriots being up 2 TDs at some point during this game.