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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 4: KC at DEN (+3.5)

Date:
October 1, 2018 7:51 PM
October 1, 2018 7:51 PM

Savage: We've seen this line get bet down from +5 in the past couple days, despite most of the public money on the Chiefs. I could probably copy and paste our analysis of the Giants/Saints game to analyze this one - and that didn't go too well for the offensively challenged home team. So is the smart money actually smart here? Or is this another game where you should simply take the team with the much better QB?


Rabbitt: I'm sure the smart money is on the Chiefs. You get the better QB, Coach, and the best player (Hill) all you get with denver is Von Miller. He isn't good enough to beat the Chiefs.  However, I refuse to bet against the Broncos.  It's a thing.


Skol:  I’m general I don’t like popular underdogs so curious to watch the line as the day goes on.  I expect the money line to not match the spread here...Chiefs backers laying the points and Denver backers taking the $ line.   Giants/Saints game turned on a fumble (that probably wasn’t) by Gallman, makes plenty of sense to have Barkey and spend time throwing to Wayne Gallman, but I digress.  Saints defense did play well and I guess they were due for that.  I like Denver at home here...I believe Case Keenum and the Broncos offense will look dynamite vs this KC defense.  St.  Patrick plays a pass rush for the first time this season.  


RC: Mahomes is pass-rush neutralizing...he makes decisions too fast and is going to expose the hole. I'm hoping Vance Joseph tries to come after him so he can shred him in the abandoned spaces. If Derek Carr wasn't touched and completed 101% of his passes v. DEN and Joe Flacco had little issue...Mahomes should torch the Broncos and ignite the Vance Joseph has to go talk.

The hidden piece to this...I don't think the KC defense is all that terrible. Just hasn't had to do much with big leads. Keenum is going to get picked 2-3x, especially if it's 21-0 in 1st Q and he's throwing a lot. Vance will help us by pushing Lindsay over Royce to try to control clock. When Royce enters, KC will overplay the run and force him to go away from Royce.

Denver doesn't have the juice to hang with KC under normal circumstances. It would take a fluky start, light rain, etc.


Katz: I want to think that the Chiefs are just unstoppable, but then I remember that I need a big game from Tyreek tonight and whenever I need big, yet realistic performances from my players on Monday night to win, I don't get them. So if we're looking at something like a 4-60 performance from Tyreek, can the Chiefs still win and cover on the road? Probably. Mahomes will just throw to everyone else. I will take the Chiefs just about every week until they give me a reason not to.


Skol:  I’m gonna root root root for the home team and hope when KC scores it’s Tyreek because every other Chiefs player hurts me in some FF matchup.  Even if we give Denver’s defense as little credit as possible they are still the best St. Patrick has seen by far.  Too much hype for me...I’m still happy to have the home team with a better defense with points (and money line).  I think there’s a 30% chance Keenum looks like yesterday’s Trubisky tonight.  Also was going to grit my teeth and go “under” but it’s dropping so much I’m out.  Just saw 53.5.


Katz: I will add this. I do think at some point we are going to see this offense sputter. It's coming. I seriously hope it isn't tonight, but Mahomes will have a bad game and the team will score under 20 points. Tonight's game does seem like a candidate for when that will happen. I'm still rolling with KC, but I won't be surprised if Denver comes out on top.


Skol:  and KC going nuclear again wouldn’t surprise me!  I just figure this is the spot...best defense in the division on the road.  If St. Patrick dances on my head then I hope he does it with a lot of T.Hill


Savage: Who knows, maybe KC is the AFC version of the Rams, on their way to a 14-2 record and first round bye. If that's the case, they're probably the right side tonight. I'm not ready to crown them just yet -  I need to see them handle a little adversity before I'd even consider laying more than a field goal on the road to a divisional opponent.

Through 3 games, they've committed only 1 turnover and have yet to trail at any point. I just don't think that type of thing is sustainable with an aggressive QB and a mediocre-at-best defense. Part of the reason they have yet to trail... their opponents have made critical and pretty avoidable mistakes early in the game.

The Chargers kicked to Tyreek on their first possession in week 1, the Steelers fumbled in their own territory on their first possession in week 2. I think Denver will be able to avoid that, I think they'll bring their A game.I also think its worth noting that the Chiefs wins are looking worse and worse every week. Road wins over the Chargers and Steelers were a big deal in weeks 1 and 2. Now that I've seen the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the 49ers take the Chargers to the wire in LA, I'm not quite as impressed.


Rabbitt: even if denver can play close I expect Vance to coach that out of them.  He is quite awful.


Skol:   I’m now seeing Den +3.5 (-115)...could this thing get to -3?  I thought the money was supposed to be coming on the Chiefs.  If this keeps up I’m going to pull the ‘ole flip flop and take the Chiefs and the over.  I just have to abandon my beliefs and bet against such a popular underdog.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

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