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2018 Handicapping Chat Week 6: PHI at NYG (+3)

Date:
October 11, 2018 5:38 PM
October 11, 2018 6:05 PM

Email chat transcripts of our Handicapping Group discussing the TNF game...

Savage: Bit of a tough spot for the Eagles, despite the opponent. A road divisional game on a short week, sandwiched in between big home games (hosting the Panthers in week 7). Watching live last Sunday, I thought the Eagles looked better than the Vikings. Their offense moved the ball well - a respectable 6.6 yards per play. They just had two costly turnovers and a gigantic roughing the passer penalty at the end of the half which allowed the Vikings to go up 17-3. I think they'll be able to carry this offensive success forward and will continue to rush the passer effectively on D. Are you guys with me, or do some of you like the home dog?


Katz: My initial thought was that the Eagles really need this win, but man that line is terrifying. The Giants are coming off a crushing loss. The Eagles are definitely the better team, but the situation screams Giants here. I've been going against the square play all season and it has really paid off. I think I have to like the Giants here.


Rabbitt: Eli Manning still scares me.


RC: Am I right on this: TNF games the home team is 5-0 with a 4-0-1 ATS record? But this is the first home dog of TNF 2018.


Katz: I tried to look at trends for TNF, but the matchups vary so much that it's hard to just say go with the home team. When push comes to shove, I tend to not make the square pick so I'll probably end up with the Giants. The problem is the Eagles really can't afford to lose this game. Or maybe they can. 8-8 may win this garbage division.


RC: Am I also correct that if the Giants topple the defending champs here and DAL/WAS lose, very possible, this week...then everyone in the NFC East has 2 wins -- thus, the Giants winning here, at home with the TNF trend and crowd, actually 'right' the season and get back into the thick of things in said awful NFC East?


Rabbitt: Agree with everything Katz is saying... but man the Giants aren't good at football


Skol:  Night games continue to not be kind to me...I’m rolling with the Eagles here.  I had the Giants last week, I like them much better when nothing is expected of them.  The second people start believing they throw a screen to Wayne Gallman and he plays hot potato right to a defensive player.  I want to be on the right side when something inevitable goes wrong.

Savage: This is line is starting to move toward the Giants despite more of the public money on the Eagles. The more I think about it, the more I want to stay away completely. The Eagles have the line-play advantage on both sides of the ball, but that was the case in all 5 games this year and its only led to two wins. And as Katz pointed out, this isn't really a must win for the Eagles - if they lose here they're still right in the mix in the NFC East. They may still play like a desperate team anyway, but the fact that we can't really bank on it makes me less confident.


Rabbitt: Agree with Savage that this game sucks.  I think I'm taking the Giants with the same confidence you would start Eli Manning in a fantasy football game.

RC: Lane Johnson out would be huge for this game. I'm taking the home points w NYG on TNF in a game I'd never bet real money on. The Computer is trying to tell me the Giants are better than I think because of their defense among other things, and it was right about the Lions (but NYG not near DET) so I'm wanting to trust it with NYG...as far as I can throw it.


Savage: Just a heads up, this is down to +1.5.


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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