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*Forgive typos, chat transcripts...
Savage: I think there are two questions we need to answer in order to handicap this game properly. One, how good is Houston, really? They're 4-3 right now but are a few plays away from being 2-5. A couple somewhat lucky OT wins, they needed help from Peterman to beat the Bills, and were the beneficiaries of a Bortles meltdown last week. Two, how much does the QB matter for Miami? We'll see Osweiler for the 3rd straight week, and so far he's played about how you'd expect Tannehill to play.
A trend worth noting: In all 7 TNF games this year, the winning team was favored at some point in the week. Will Miami be the team that breaks the streak, or do we see another TNF blowout this week?
Katz: When considering my survivor pick this week, I just couldn't bring myself to take Houston. I think that means I have to like Miami here. It's a lot of points and and I do feel like it's a bit of an overreaction to how their offense has looked the past two weeks with Osweiler, but they're coming off a loss while Houston is coming off a big win. Prime let down spot for the Texans. And, most importantly, this is the last game in #Brocktober.
RC: In general, I'm not sure the Texans are much better than Miami. The Texans have home field. The Texans have the more dynamic QB but also the worse offensive line. I'd give the defensive edge, overall, to Miami. Two similar teams, in a sense, pros and cons either way. Before I saw the line I would have guessed Houston by 4.5-5.0...7.5 favorite is pretty salty for a pretty weak team who has beating Cody Kessler and luckily limping by Buffalo as their last two wins...and two lucky OT wins before that.
Nothing would surprise me in this game, including a Miami outright win. The 7.5 is too juicy to pass up, but I'm not sure I would bet it in real life besides to make the watch more interesting.
I need Miami to win...I'm taking out positions on the Colts winning the AFC South now, and this would give me Houston 4-4 and Indy 3-5 after this week, assuming IND beats Oakland. If Houston loses tonight -- the Colts -3.0 is a best bet candidate of the week.
Savage: I agree, I'm not sure the Texans much better either. A line this high implies that the Texans are an 8-9 win team, while the Dolphins (with Osweiler) are more like a 6-7 win team. In reality, they might both be closer to the 7-8 win range. It's a solo night game for the books, and I think they're banking on a lot of public bettors seeing "Watson vs Osweiler" and thinking they have an easy winner.
I'm not betting this game either. The Dolphins are a little to volatile, especially with Osweiler. But I'll take the Dolphins for my pick, because Texans are one of those teams that "shouldn't be laying this many points against anyone."
Rabbitt: I think we are all on the same page. Gotta take the points here. 7.5 points when I think both teams are bad is quite a bit. I'm actually considering making a bit of a wager on this thing.