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2018 Handicapping Week 9 (Open Chat)

Date:
November 4, 2018 9:30 AM
November 4, 2018 9:28 AM

Savage: I want to try something new this week to see if it inspires a little more conversation. Let's have an forum for all the Sunday games. Anything you want to discuss is fair game. What are your early candidates for best bet of the week? Which lines have you scratching your head? Are there games where you're monitoring the line movement to see if you can get a better number?

I have my eye on Atlanta. I thought we might get them as a 3 point underdog, but they opened at 2.5 and quickly got bet down to 1.5. I'm waiting, hoping some money comes in on the home team and moves the line up a bit. Even if the line stays where it is, I love Atlanta coming off the bye and desperately needing a win to stay in the WC race. The Redskins are overrated, they've been mostly unimpressive and lucky during this 3 game win streak. They're due for a loss.

Katz: I just made my preliminary picks for this week and found myself all over the underdogs this week. Narrative street just sets up so conveniently for almost all of them. I know that 75% of road dogs are not going to win, but I'm struggling to talk myself out of them.

Rabbitt: Not a bunch of lines that jump out that I love. Chicago -9 seems pretty great. I cant imagine Natey P has anyone's confidence in buffalo... that and him being one hit away from Matt freaking Barkley playing NFL snaps has that as my likely bet of the week.  ATL seems like another one as well... I also have good feelings about the rams continuing the streak in NO.

Skol:  My favorite bet for Sunday is the Chargers.  Probably my co-favorite this week (w the Raiders).  When we last saw LAC they were giving up a late TD in London to blow the cover before their bye.  I was fortunate to catch this weekends games at the Sportsbook at Caesar’s and the team that drew the loudest reaction from the crowd was the Seahawks...a very popular winning bet.  I like playing against those emotions.  R. Wilson is awesome and they did play the Rams tough but I think Seattle beating a few bad teams  lately is a head fake.  Chargers are a step up in class IMO.  The Seahawks also have the rematch with the Rams on deck.  

I think I could get behind the Falcons depending on what happens with that line.  I don’t like that the spread is shrinking but GB +5.5 interests me.  Also TEN +6 at Dallas seems like too many points.  I think NO is going to beat the Rams...I’m surprised that the Rams aren’t small road favorites.  If the Vikings get a few guys back I could be interested.  I’m going to dig in more tomorrow.

Savage: I was interested in taking GB too, and I still might, but I thought we'd be getting +6.5 or +7. How they can be +9.5 in LA and then only +5.5 in Foxboro doesn't make much sense. I don't know if that's an overreaction to the Patriots struggling to put away the Bills, the Packers outplaying (but getting outcoached by) the Rams, or both.

I already took Titans +6.5. I feel like that game is destined to be decided by a field goal. Unless they're playing an elite team like the Rams, Chiefs, etc, I feel like all the Cowboys and Titans game should be lined at 3.5 or lower.


RC: Can I turn this into a LAC v SEA discussion because it's the one game I got a feeling on looking at the internals.

LAC has 5 wins thsi season...BUF-SF-OAK-CLE-TEN, when they play ARI in a few weeks they'll have the bingo card of wins against the worst teams in the NFL. Not 'bad' but like 1-2-3-4-5-6 worst. They were lucky to get by SF and TEN.

No Bosa. Gordon iffy. LAC playing all these bad teams and are middle of the pack or worse in many defensive metrics. #28 in 3rd-down defense (46.1%).

Seattle at home is always good, and yet this line has drooped for -1.5 SEA to now pick em!!

I would like to advance three things for Seattle here: (1) The O-Line is way better. 6.0 sacks allowed Weeks 1 and again Week 2...1.8 per game allowed since (and thus 4-1 in that stretch with a narrow loss to LAR). (2) Seattle #3 pass defense. #5 INTs. #3 QB rating allowed against. #4 PPG allowed. (3) We all overlook something because we don;t believe it's true, but it's something Xavier Cromartie said/wrote this summer -- (something to the effect of) Russell Wilson is high-end elite and should be treated as such to get Seattle to 9-10 wins this season, and not just sit around and focus on the 'names' that the defense lost. What I think we don't believe, but is more true than not...Russell Wilson is kinda like Brady-Rodgers. Wins games. Pulls miracles. Puts team on his back. We always say 'never bet against Brady or Rodgers'...why not never bet against Wilson? Wilson is 4-2-1/5-2 ATS this year, depending on your spread used. 2-0-0 at home.

Why is everyone so strong LAC?...Not stated incredulous, but like talk me out of Seattle PICK over LAC AT Seattle -- before I piss money down the drain.

Skol: I’ve won betting against A.Rodgers this year and I just got beat by Nick Mullens so I don’t have any rules for not betting on or against any QBs.  I can’t blame anyone for taking SEA here...my numbers say LAC are a point spread winner this week.  Usually only spits out a few games a week...and let’s be honest...plenty of them lose.  (My attempt to absolve blame).  I think Seattle is getting people’s attention for the first time his year...I don’t like that.  Chargers cost people a cover (and they were bet on) their last game in London so I like the idea of being on them in the following game.  Just trying to Zag vs Zig.  I dislike coach Lynn but Rivers has been as good as anyone this year.  I believe the Seattle D resurgence is schedule driven.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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