2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Football Preseason Notes (8/13)
Throughout the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every few days as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors (in no particular order)…
-- What to with Jerick McKinnon?
He won’t play the rest of the preseason and the 49ers have to decide whether to cut or put on I.R. or have him on the roster inactive waiting for him to be OK to activate (and teams hate doing that with non-stars). The team has a major gun to their head.
If they cut him right now it costs the 49ers about $10M. If they keep him the hit for 2019 is $6M.
If they keep him on I.R., he would cost $8M+ next year (2020) or $4M to cut…after they paid him $6M for whatever in 2019 if they don’t cut him this year.
If the 49ers keep him active, it means they still believe in some way…and he maintains some FF value. I think the odds of that are decreasing by the day. I’d say 20% he stays on the active roster.
80% likely he is cut or goes on I.R. for the year. I suspect I.R. for the year because they’d pay him $6M to sit in 2019…then if no hope shown in 2020, they can pay him $4M to cut/go away (which would all up to $10M…equal to just cutting him today for $10M).
If I were the 49ers, I’d put him on I.R. because, financially, it makes as much sense as cutting him. You buy another year of healing, and you see what the outlook is in 2020.
We’re pretty much to the point of McKinnon FF-dead for 2019.
-- The Packers were in on the Kaare Vedvik sweepstakes, which shows two things to be true that I wrote about months ago in our personnel/salary cap studies in the dynasty offseason…
1) Vedvik was worthy of a deep sleeper label we labeled him and was going to get moved by the Ravens to a kicker desperate team. While everyone is running around trying to figure out how to draft the most RBs for their fantasy team, I’m researching down into backup kickers. Every position is important in fantasy. ‘Just stream them’, at any position, is code for ‘we don’t know these guys as well as we do RBs, so let’s best guess’. I don’t want to guess; I want to KNOW.
2) I mentioned the odds that the Packers would cut Mason Crosby for salary cap savings and go with Sam Ficken…for reasons beyond the cap too. I mention this to those ‘streaming’ kickers…don’t start with Crosby because you like the Packers this year – he may not be there Week 1.
-- The Patriots acquired Eric Saubert from the Falcons this week. Why the Falcons just gave him to the Patriots is why New England is New England and the Falcons are not.
Belichick combs through forgotten players better than anyone in the NFL. The brilliance of Belichick, with personnel is, the patience to bypass all the rookie hysteria and just wait a year or two or three for when dummy GMs on other teams give up/cut, etc., talented players. Belichick picks them up cheap and can take a look, and if it doesn’t work…the dumps them for little cost.
Belichick lets the players mature on another team’s dime. He scouts them in the preseason better than anyone. He runs his team brilliantly personnel/business-wise.
Saubert has some skills. He’s worth developing. Late in 2018, Austin Hooper got hurt and the Falcons season was LONG over. Instead of pushing Saubert for more touches, they forced injured Hooper limping back out on the field. The perfect time to see what their young talent had (Saubert), late in a dead season, and the Falcons missed it by a mile. The Patriots were watching. I was watching Saubert too and discussed him last year, and his viability/hopes in the preseason and when he got a few snaps late 2018. I don’t know why the Falcons did this.
Matt LaCosse is still the Weeks 1-4 guy, but Saubert may kick Lance Kendricks to the curb as the Pats’ new #3 TE. Saubert will be a developmental TE who might steal some snaps from LaCosse when Ben Watson returns. LaCosse is the only FF 2019 factor still…and a sketchy one but some hope.
-- There is some hope in my Damien Williams wrong ‘promotion’ I gave last week. And, just to be clear…THEY were right, and I was wrong. It happens. I thought there was little/no chance of Andy Reid going back on his Damien word from all 2019 (until last Friday). I thought the media butchered…but they were right here, not me.
For those who acted upon it from my telling you Williams was fine, not at RBBC risk, there is a ray of hope ahead…maybe.
All it would take is Williams returning to action this preseason and having ‘a moment’, and Carlos Hyde not doing anything of note…and that would get all the RB-desperate fantasy GMs foaming at the mouth. There is a way out of this…or just Williams back into the good graces.
Williams was interviewed about the new RBBC situation, and he spoke graciously about it. That’s a good start to turn this story. My ear to the ground is telling me people are afraid of this RBBC, for Williams, but they really think this might be Reid trying to motivate Williams back and ‘taking over’ as lead dog…needing to show some grit. Earning it. Fantasy people are waiting for that ‘moment’ to re-endorse/love Williams. If it happens, and it might this week or next…Williams stops hemorrhaging his ADP and starts to turn higher. However, he needs ‘a moment’ for the masses to rally to.
He’s a bit of an FF bargain/buy low, potentially, as he falls as RB-desperate despair/wallow in the recent news.
However, if Hyde goes off and Williams is still sidelined…he plummets further.
-- The Video Q&A shows this week for subscribers…
1) Thursday 7pmET-830pm+ (8/15)
We’ll keep an eye on the preseason games, take questions, but then watch Arizona’s offense for a few series…if you know what I mean, and I think you do.
2) Saturday 9pmET-10:30pm+ (8/17)
We’ll keep an eye on the beginning of Dallas-Rams together at 10pm.
I’ll take all your fantasy and handicapping and anything you want questions, as usual. I’ll also start the show with whatever nuggets I gathered that day, as I do.
Details on how to watch will be posted day of the show.
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