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2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Football Training Camp Notes (7/31/2019)

Date:
July 31, 2019 12:51 PM
July 31, 2019 12:49 PM

2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Football Training Camp Notes (7/31/2019)

 

Throughout the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every few days as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.

*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors (in no particular order)…

 

 -- Will Jerry Jones ultimately cave to Ezekiel Elliott? Was Jones’s tough talk about not needing an RB to win a title a bluff?

Jerry Jones went out his way to make his crafted statements the other day. They were not off the cuff, they were purposeful. Was is it for negotiations or a set-up otherwise?

We’re all in the ‘guessing game’ phase of this, but my two cents…

I think Jerry Jones had to make that statement to prepare Dallas fans for the very real possibility that Ezekiel Elliott will not be with the team Week 1 (and beyond)…and furthermore, a theory that I floated a few weeks ago – I think Jones may trade Elliott.

My theory today is…

Jones doesn’t want to sign Elliott to an expensive long-term deal…it’s bad business to invest big in an RB (as the world seems to know but 25+ NFL teams don’t), but it’s real bad business to be in the Ezekiel Elliott business. And probably the worst business to be attached to well-paid Ezekiel Elliott.

My guess is that Jones has decided that he will get Elliott back playing under his normal contract this year…call Zeke’s bluff, with the bait of ‘we’ll deal with this after the season’ (and then he will trade him). AND if that doesn’t work, Jones will let him holdout and trade him sometime this year.

Every owner is becoming afraid of a Le’Veon Bell situation. Top NFL running backs think Le’Veon liberated them…in reality, he killed them/their market/their leverage going forward

Jones throwing out the ‘you don’t need a rushing title RB to win a Super Bowl’ was not just a message to Elliott…it was a message to Dallas Nation – the preparation for the problem/challenge/circumstances to come. It was a message to the locker room to keep them going.

The problem is, if you watched the Amazon/Dallas documentary, Jerry has a weak (personality-wise) coaching staff of lapdogs (the complete opposite of what we’re seeing with the professional Carolina staff with Amazon this year) and they all walk around worshiping Elliott – Jerry created the Ezekiel monster. So, the staff thinks Elliott is everything. The locker room does too, in a sense. Jerry’s gotta change the messaging, like a politician. It’s probably too late.

Before you think I’m being anti-Ezekiel Elliott…I am not. I absolutely believe Elliott should pull this sitting out maneuver. Just like with Le’Veon…Elliott’s value cuts in half with an ACL tear. I totally get the gun NFL RBs have to their heads. In a league where New England is showing expensive RBs do not matter, big picture. Elliott has to fear an ACL at any moment but also that he’ll be suspended/jailed at any moment. He’s a trainwreck off the field. He needs that $50M guaranteed NOW before he screws his own self with his off-field actions or an unfortunate injury.

Elliott is more likely to blink in this situation because he needs the money and the time of service to get to a new big contract. I think Jones knows he’s likely to win this standoff (Zeke crawls back), but if Zeke stays held out – they Cowboys will be fine anyways.

Elliott has the weak hand here…but he might be stupid enough to overplay it. In some respects, he has no other choice.

I reiterate… Dallas made a massive mistake when they passed on Jalen Ramsey for Ezekiel Elliott in the 2016 NFL Draft. Now do you believe me, Dallas fans?

Chargers fans… If you were wondering how little people think of Melvin Gordon – In a 12 hour day of football coverage on NFL Network, the Elliott situation is discussed almost every hour and is the #1 topic each day (what did Jerry say, where is Ezekiel training, etc.). You never hear a peep about Melvin Gordon’s similar holdout. The news on the Gordon hold out is…hey, Justin Jackson is a pretty good. It’s a tough time to be a star running back seeking big money in the NFL. There are only so many Jets or Redskins type mismanaged teams left to overpay these guys.

 

 -- Four IDP/defensive player updates…

1) I see Chiefs rookie SAF Juan Thornhill playing with the 1s a lot in camp footage I’ve watched.

2) I am being told Jags rookie LB Quincy Williams is running with the 1s almost all the time and is the standout at the position. I was converted on Quincy a while ago…another feather in my Jags ‘over’ win total bet this year.

3) Detroit CB Mike Ford, whom I loved last year and who had a great end to the season in IDP…he has fallen into the doghouse and has gone from projected starter to potentially cut. Slicing his projections down.

4) I mentioned Cards LB Dennis Gardeck as a listed starting OLB a few days ago. I think that might be an error…it was a list based on Chandler Jones at DE, which he is supposedly not this year…he’s back at OLB with Terrell Suggs in the 3-4 scheme. Gardeck is running with the 1s with Haason Reddick out…and it might be that the ‘starter’ label was him as an ILB, over Reddick, not just because of injury. I’ll be watching that closely, as you know...but I’m not as confident he’s starting today as I was 48 hours ago. Someday soon he will and will be IDP glorious, but my reporting/sources may have jumped the gun on him right now…or not.

 

 -- One of the players popping in training camp is Lions 2nd-year WR Brandon Powell. I thought he might start last year, when Golden Tate was traded…but he barely played. Powell was a UDFA rookie last season, and one of the stars of training camp – but also buried on the depth chart.

I then thought Powell was in line to start this year, and then Matt Patricia took the sucker’s bet of Danny Amendola because ‘Patriots’. Well, Powell is lighting it up again in camp as that athletic, playmaking slot WR. He’s been so good there is speculation that he’ll beat out Amendola for the starting job.

I know ex-Patriots coaches…there’s no way Powell starts over Amendola, unless/until Amen gets hurt. The good news is – Powell is beating on the door again, getting attention. He’s been working as a slot WR and running a lot of trick plays, jet sweeps, etc., in camp. He’s going to matter soon for fantasy, but not likely in Week 1.

 

 -- Again, I say to all you David Montgomery parrots… If David Montgomery is to be worshiped because of his ‘forced missed tackle’ stat from PFF…and he is worshiped because of it, I know this because I watched the NFL Network interview him and say it a thousand times. Then why is there not the same hysteria for Washington State RB James Williams?

Montgomery is noted for breaking the record for the best ‘forced/missed tackles’ number in PFF’s system. However, we overlook that he beat James Williams by a fraction of a percentage…like if the ‘judging art’ stat had judged just one missed tackle one way or the other, James Williams would have been the king. If this stat is so ULTRA-important, why isn’t James Williams the talk of the NFL?

We reach a conclusion on things we do know little/nothing about and then grab loose end data to support the pre-conclusion and just run with it like it’s an indisputable fact. Do you know how this ‘missed tackle’ stat is calculated by PFF? What measuring stick? What person(s) are judging it with their eyes…and what is their background doing this? How is it so many 2018 RBs scored so highly compared to other years? Is there a bias or a difference in the way various, random people are judging this? You have to look at tape and make a judgement call on hypotheticals on ‘missed tackles’…I might see the same tape totally differently (and I do).

We are lied to all the time in the media…sometimes unintentionally. But we just take everything they give us as holy because ‘they work a football job with a football outlet’. Can we just question/be skeptics on these things and not just 100.0% accept them all no questions asked?

Answer = no. Anytime I raise this very point my football IQ, standing/relevance in the world, and my sexuality is questioned by ‘the few, the vocal’.

Football scouting is a religion not a science.

Did you study the David Montgomery tape?

Did you study another 100+ other running back’s tape to compare it against this year?

Your belief is on ‘faith’…faith in a guy who fell precipitously in the NFL Draft for a reason.

We’ll see if David Montgomery is that Messiah you’re looking for or not. I’m taking ‘the not’ side of the bet. I’ve done my own studies. Sadly, I know he will get forced all the chances/touches in the world while other guys on other teams, more talented, never get a chance – and all this because of a PFF stat no one questions the validity or usefulness of.

i.e. – it’s a religion.

Now, go be good boys and girls and go pray to your ESPN and ex-player analyst gods. 


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>