2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Game Review: Texans 22, Bills 19 (OT)
I’m not going to recount or lament all the ways the Bills could have won this game. I watched this game live as a bettor of Buffalo at +2.5, so my view is probably, emotionally skewed. Both teams could’ve won, both made mistakes, both had their moments of being lucky.
The Bills led 13-0 at the half and were in pretty good control of things, but then Deshaun Watson started to make plays and the crowd started to get back into it…and then the next thing you know the Texans took the lead late, then the next thing you know the Bills tied it with 0:04 left…then the next thing you know Deshaun gets sacked in OT and is falling but a second sacker actually hits Watson back to his feet and he spins out of it and makes the play of the game to give the Texans the win.
The Texans move on to face the Chiefs. Houston has already defeated KC this season, but now they face the Chiefs in colder temps…something Houston is not used to or thrives in…as well as Andy Reid’s high win percentage coming off a BYE.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Of all things to blame, for Buffalo’s loss, Josh Allen (24-46 for 264 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 9-92-0) might be the leading vote getter in the blame game.
…no TD passes and completed about 50% of his passes in this game (against a weak pass defense).
…threw erratically into coverage too often.
…took sacks in critical FG position, thus taking them out of FB range, late in the game.
…his great run of the ball late in the game BUT then that blind pitch of the ball while falling down from a tackle that luckily got smacked out of bounds sparing a turnover was the icing on the cake of erratic Josh Allen activity.
Allen did make some key/nice throws for 3rd-down conversions, but I’d simply put it this way, watching it live – I spent the entire time Allen had the ball late wondering how he was going to mess things up. I never felt like, ‘Oh, good…Allen has the ball with time, you know he’ll get his team down to score/win!’ You probably thought the same – and that’s the problem with Allen. Deep down we know…he cannot WIN a team games by putting them on his back as a passer. When the Bills are down and they need the QB to make a play…it’s pretty much odds against/over.
Most of the Bills losses this season were Allen driving the team down in range of a game winning or tying score (FG or TD) but then falling short, ending the game on a winning drive effort that failed.
You can win games with Josh Allen at QB. He’s a gamer. He has become such a threat running. He has some skills, but he has too many obvious flaws to be a great QB who bails his team out. He’s a front tire not the engine of the car known as the Buffalo offense…and he runs flat too often in critical times.
I was thinking Allen’s flaws and mistakes were so obvious late in this game, that maybe the Bills would consider drafting a 2nd-3rd-round QB to develop to have in their back pocket as a fail-safe for the future, but then Allen made some decent throws after his screw up moments…and then I see that ‘C’ (Captain) on his uniform and I realized that they won’t plan ahead for any changes because NFL teams rarely plan ahead unless the situation is beyond obvious/problematic. Matt Barkley will be the backup and Allen will be a top 10 fantasy QB, again, in 2020 because he runs for more TDs than Lamar Jackson does.
What we saw from Buffalo’s offense in 2019 is pretty much what we’ll see in 2020.
-- The Bills could’ve used more Devin Singletary (13-58-0, 6-76-0/7). He did get his hands on the ball 19 times, but only 13 carries…and every time they go to Frank Gore (8-22-0, 0-0-0/1) the offense comes to a screeching halt.
Every touch is so precious, especially in a playoff game…Gore has killed the Bills offense for several weeks now – 35 carries for 74 yards the past five games…2.1 yards per carry. It was so obvious to watch for weeks…well, obvious to everyone but the Bills offensive coaching staff.
The rookie (Singletary) doesn’t need ‘relief’ after 13 whole carries in a game flow. Christian McCaffrey touches the ball a thousand times a game…why the Bills, or many other NFL teams, refuse to load up their best offensive players is beyond me. Singletary can be a McCaffrey-type weapon…15+ carries and 10+ targets a game, but Buffalo will not use him that way because Josh Allen is not a smart QB. Several times in this game, Singletary chip blocked and then drifted open for a safety valve throw and Allen saw it 1-2x out of 10x+ times it was sitting there.
Devin Singletary is a big discussion point for me in this offseason of Dynasty planning and redraft 2020 prep. He had a nice game, 134 yards total, but he didn’t do anything to jump out at anyone and get his value rising. He goes into this offseason kinda cold…which I like.
Singletary is a stunning talent, but the Josh Allen effect weighs on his output – that’s the dilemma.
More on that all offseason.
-- Confounding to me watching this game…in this huge spot, against a weak Houston pass defense – how is Duke Williams (4-49-0/10) the go-to receiver? The guy has gone from undrafted to practice squads to the CFL to the practice squad again to the active roster midseason and then hurt soon after his 2019 debut and then in the biggest game of their season…it’s Williams who Josh Allen is looking for in big spots here?
Is it an indictment of Josh Allen, or the lack of confidence/ability in the big free agent signings John Brown (4-50-0/8) and Cole Beasley (4-44-0/5)?
Whatever it is…Duke Williams, when he played 70%+ of the snaps this season, just a few times – he was looked for/relied upon like a quasi #1 WR. He was a top receiver in the CFL during his brief stint there. Something to keep tabs on for 2020. He looked like a #1 WR type at Auburn but had terrible pre-Draft numbers and disappeared, but now has reemerged.
2020 Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball Subscriptions Now Available
It’s time for season #2 of our last season’s debut subscription…Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball.
I created Dynasty offseason as a way to communicate rankings/valuations on (500+) existing players (and also 400+ IDPs) for Dynasty and Keeper planning purposes (trades, etc.) as well as getting the jump on Best Ball/MFL drafts that begin in February and run all the rest of the year.
The fastest growing success percentage/money earning with FFM scouting/rankings/etc. is in those Best Ball/MFLs – draft a deep roster and forget it until the season begins, and then just watch the results…no lineup settings, no trading. Just pay to compete, out-draft everyone else, and try and cash in on our early/better read on things.
Dynasty Offseason subscriptions will be available when College Football Metrics begins (1/3/20), and you can purchase as a combo or just individually the one you want/need. However, the Dynasty Offseason rankings, etc., will not kickoff until right after the Super Bowl (articles and reports will post in January but player rankings/mock drafts not until past the Super Bowl)…and then we pile in material daily/weekly until opening day of the new NFL season.
-- Deshaun Watson (20-25 for 247 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had another one of those games where he appears to be asleep for 2-3 quarters and then makes some magical escape plays late and wins games. I can never tell if he’s a great QB or just a ‘good’ one. 75% of the game he’s a snooze and then he makes 1-2 electric plays and that’s all we remember…rightfully so.
Since Week 6, he’s played in 11 games for the 2019 season and thrown 16 TD passes…1.45 TD passes per game, nothing to write home about. 11 INTs in that span…1.0 per game, with four multi-pick games. One 300+ yard passing game in that span.
The numbers aren’t eye popping, but they are consistent…he has been the #5 PPG QB in 4pts per pass TD leagues since Week 6 and was #2 for the entire 2019 season (Weeks 1-16), a far cry from #1 Lamar Jackson, and a sneeze away from being outside the top 5…still, very solid+ for FF.
Watson is doing enough between passing and rushing tallies to be a top 5 fantasy QB right now. No reason to see that changing any in the future, unless/until all those big injuries catch up to him. Once he loses his mobility, he’s going to fade fast in fantasy.
-- Buffalo LB Tremaine Edmunds (12 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) did his part in this game. If there was a key stop or catch a runner from behind or beat them to the edge moment, Edmunds usually came through. He’s just faster than most offensive players…Deshaun Watson couldn’t outrun him in some key moments.
By holding Houston to 19 points in regulation, it makes eight of Buffalo’s last 10 games holding opponents to 20 or fewer points in a game (in regulation). For the season, the Bills held 13 opponents to 20 or fewer points in regulation in their 17-game season.
Buffalo is in the debate for the best pure defensive unit going into 2020, but we have to see about their free agency and draft…as well as their 2020 schedule. We know this – the Bills have the AFC and NFC West on the rotation…they may head coast-to-coast four times next season, never an easy/favorable thing to do. The schedule is much tougher for Buffalo (and NE) in 2020.
Speaking of the Patriots, tomorrow we’ll recap the TEN-NE game…is it the end of an era?
2020 College Football Metrics Season Has Begun
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
Sign-ups for CFM and/or our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DOBB) subscriptions are found from the FFM home page ‘Subscribe now’ tab.
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