2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Preseason Analysis Wk2 Jets 22, Falcons 17
I’m pretty sure these are the two most boring teams of the 2019 preseason. I don’t have any player on either team in the top 50 in our Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and just two in the top 125. The Jets played a lot of starters in this game for several series, but without Le’Veon Bell this team is an absolute yawn to observe in the preseason.
The Falcons played their 1st-team quite a bit the first half and they were handling the Jets but were plagued with a dropped TD and two missed 50+ yard FGs. Still the Jets led 10-6 at the half. Then the Falcons turned to the other two Matt’s at QB…Matt Schaub and Matt Simms and then I might as well shut off the tape because there is hardly anything worthy watching or reacting to. The other two Matt’s put 0.0 zero points and the Jets ‘stormed’ back to win the meaningless, dull affair.
We have just a few player notes to hit on…
-- Sam Darnold (5-7 for 46 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) answers the question…”What of people just decided to care about Matt Barkley way too much?” Darnold did his usual safe passing and floating medium passes but had the luxury of Atlanta using a 4-man front and dropping seven into coverage quite a bit.
I noted that when the Falcons ran five pass rushers at the Jets during Darnold’s dump pass brigade, they sacked him easily. When they brought a seven-man front on a 3rd & short midfield pass attempt, Darnold got rid of the ball quick and short of a 1st-down.
I’m not extra picking on him but reminding myself…the defensive scheme pressure or lack thereof in the preseason matters in the optical illusion of the quarterback ‘looking good’ a lot. Some defenses are vanilla and/or 2nd-3rd-string heavy while others started working their 1st-team D against the opponent. A lot of young, suspect starting NFL QBs look wonderful with limited/no pressure on most snaps and facing backups (see: Daniel Jones).
Just like some backup/rookie WRs can look better or worse in the preseason depending upon what QB they’re stuck with. If you’re working with DeShone Kizer or the two Matt’s from Atlanta…how are you supposed to see what a WR can really do?
Onto the Jets’ backup QBs that I like better than Darnold, but there is ZERO chance they would ever get a shot over the holy one (Darnold) in their lifetimes…
Davis Webb (2-5 for 10 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) was running 3rd-team and was fine here. Had a receiver drop a 10+ yard pass on him, and then was pressured by non-blocking O-Lineman for a couple throwaways. He looks resigned to his fate of being cut in a few weeks. Body language and energy was terrible (to me). I wonder if he and Kingsbury are on good terms or not and he would go there. He may have no other choice.
Luke Falk (4-4 for 41 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) ran 4th-team but has looked the best of all the Jets backup QBs in this game and in this preseason. That probably gets him a roster spot 50-50, maybe. Falk was in Miami with this group and was brought to NY with them, so I think they’re fans to some degree.
-- In Falcons’ backup RB news (the most uninteresting backfield in the NFL)…
Ito Smith (5-13-1, 3-43-0/3) ran as the ‘starter’ with Devonta Freeman too precious to play still. He looked as dull as ever, but he will be the #2…at least for Week 1.
Qadree Ollison (9-44-0, 0-0-0/2) took over after Ito, so I assume he’s jumped Brian Hill (4-12-0, 0-0-0/1). And Ollison has improved each week in the preseason. He may end up the #2 in reality if Devonta has any in-season issues. Ollison is working like James Conner, but I don’t think Conner is a top 32 NFL RB talent, so it’s not a real compliment. But old school NFL coaches love that ‘big guy runs tough…and straight…and slow’ routine, so here comes Ollison.
-- Jets TE Daniel Brown (1-8-0/2) ran 3rd-team again, behind Herndon-Griffin, so blowout the candle on him as a Very Deep Sleeper in New York after Week 4 (Herndon’s suspension).
I pray the Jets start Ryan Griffin for my ‘under’ bet on the Jets win total this year. I don’t need any help, but I’ll take more self-inflicted wounds in any case.
You’d think…’who cares’ about Ryan Griffin vs. Daniel Brown?
Every play and chess piece on the board matters. On a 3rd & 7, let’s say, if Darnold quick tosses to Griffin…he’s not going much after the catch because he’s so slow. While Brown is an above-average athlete at TE, a former WR…that same one target to the tight end MIGHT result in Brown making a short catch, making a move and getting the 1st-down which keeps a drive/possession alive, which may mean the points in a cover or not, or a win or not.
I know, you think they probably have Griffin in for blocking. I’m watching, and I’m seeing him so slow-footed he’s get beaten by pass rushers all preseason. In the regular season, Griffin may help give up a sack or not help a 3rd & short Le’Veon run attempt. The Jets are willingly going to put a negative production player on the field, one who has no upside to make plays…keeping benched one that could make plays.
It’s the little things.
…things I try to identify and expose for fantasy and betting purposes.
-- He’ll never get a chance in Atlanta, but we’re keeping an eye on 2nd-year WR Devin Gray (3-34-0/5). He’s really progressing nicely. So much so he may make the team, but I wish they’d try to hide him on the practice squad again and another team claims him. One of the better UDFA athletic/hands WR’s from the 2018 class.
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