2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Preseason Analysis Wk3 – Saints 28, Jets 13
This game was one where preseason showed reality…the Saints’ backups are better than the Jets’ starters. The Jets are just sad. No one believes me about the Jets’ demise because EVERYONE in football tells you Sam Darnold is the future…and the weight of that tends to scare people into conformity. You forget it’s all the same people who assured you Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles were big time, no doubt franchise QBs. Not some…all. Not all, because I (alone) screamed they were wrong and chronicled why and never wavered.
It’s not a crime to be wrong on a football talent call…it is a crime to be wrong most of the time and all in 100% agreement on what you see, and what you see ends up not even close to successful. In most businesses, those people are fired. In football analysis, they’re given raises because we cannot get enough football talk.
I thank them for never changing! I’d be out of business if they did. Their attachment to Darnold makes me sleep well at night knowing they haven’t figured anything out yet.
Let’s look at my player notes and talk some more Sam Darnold…my favorite subject!
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We have new people coming to FFM this time of season, welcome. And when they read me blasting Sam Darnold it’s where I lose a lot of new readers. ‘Fans’ are so sure of Darnold, because the media is so sure of Darnold, that stupid-nobody-me (and my decade of success calling this stuff) crying the opposite has to be a glitch in The Matrix. I must be anti-Jets, anti-USC, anti-reality or just trying to get a rise out of being different.
I have nothing to gain by being wrong…and everything to lose…on every call I make. I have been studying football for 10+ years…10 years of analytics trial and error, 10 years of watching college and pro tape. 10 years of public proclamations on record. I know what I’m doing.
I know Sam Darnold blows. I knew it the first game tape I watched his breakout year at USC. I was willing to see if he ‘grew’ the following year at USC…nope, still sucks. I really went into detail studying him for him entering the draft…yep, it’s confirmed. S-U-X.
I mean, he’s not DeShone Kizer bad…he’s just an NFL backup talent that the media has decided for unknown reasons to 100% endorse fully so he’ll get years of chances to prove it with the Jets before they admit it…before the media admits it (see: Bortles, Winston, et al). Darnold can run a simple offense from 0-5 yards of throws but he progressively gets worse the further distance he has to throw, the longer he stays in the pocket to see…which he’s terrible at. He has an NFL flaw that anyone should be able to see. But ‘they’ll fix that’…like Bortles and Winston have been tried to be ‘fixed’ on offseason and by different coaches.
In this game, against some 1st-team guys for the Saints for a bit and then against more backups – Darnold threw 2-3 gift picks right into the opposing team’s hands. His first pass of the night looked like he thought the defender was the receiver.
I’m telling you, Darnold is nothing like THEY are convinced he is. Colin Cowherd may lose a legacy over it…and then doubling-down against Baker to make it even worse. It’s a shame.
Darnold is a version of USC brethren Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley…in an era where the QB play is so elevated, he shouldn’t even be discussed/thought of seriously…he should be fighting to be an NFL backup. Instead, he’s the face selling season tickets in New York.
Rent don’t own, Adam Gase…
With that said, I love Robby Anderson (2-60-0/2) as a receiver. Again, when THEY ignored him into UDFA status…who was making the case he was a top 10 WR type talent in his draft? Me, alone, again…naturally. Robby cannot hit his upside with Darnold. He’ll make some great catches on a few Darnold balloon balls here and there, but he’ll never be a star with Darnold. Not will Enunwa…or anyone else there.
Le’Veon may be affected a la David Johnson/Arizona 2018 or Todd Gurley a la his final year with Jeff Fisher before McVay showed up and made him a star.
Sorry, Jets fans. Hate me if you want. You should wait and see if I’m right (again…remember when I was so wrong about Geno Smith?) -- and then hate your owner and team President. Not me.
Nor will you stop listening to the talking heads next draft season. Well, some of you have…the FFM cult members.
I bet against a lot of things in my business, I have to. Some things I bet against -- I reasonably see scenarios where I could be wrong-ish. With Darnold, I have zero doubt. He’s mediocrity in an era of great QB talent. It’s going to be too obvious soon. Should be already.
-- The Saints are going to be forced to keep four RBs. Kamara-Murray, sure…but the way rookie UDFA RB Devine Ozigbo (6-20-0, 2-23-0/3) has played this preseason might force him to stay on the roster. A tough but unspectacular /solid power runner but I’m more shocked at how solid a pass catcher he is. We didn’t see that at Nebraska.
Dwayne Washington (8-29-0, 2-16-0/3) looked really solid here too. He’s working as the #3…a heartbeat away from getting into that #1-2 punch rotation if an injury occurs and being in the 1-2 punch with the Saints is FF-gold.
-- For what it is worth, I believe the Saints will trade for a legit/hopeful #2 WR in the next 24-72 hours. Who that is, I don’t know? It won’t be Kenny Stills…that’s a bridge burned I believe. Dante Pettis is possible.
-- What’s all this Ty Montgomery (8-21-0) talk/love? If you think the Jets will on-purpose run a split with Le’Veon-Ty, you’re out of your mind.
Is Ty the ‘handcuff’? Maybe. If the injury happened in-season, Ty might be the next guy up, but the Jets would start looking at other plans quickly. We forget Ty Montgomery is a failed runner at every stop…somehow, he’s fixed in New York?
Also…the Jets should trade Le’Veon now and get the inevitable over with.
-- Two backup TE notes…
Saints backup TE Dan Arnold (5-83-0/6) is really progressing nicely as a receiving TE. In 2020, Arnold might be a TE1 with this offense. He might shock a little this year too if the Saints don’t find better #2-3 WRs.
One of my 2019 VDS’s… Daniel Brown (1-6-0/2)? DOA. He’s getting cut almost for sure. Let’s see where he lands.
-- One last thing, on Jets QB Davis Webb (7-10 for 56 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…who I’ve been a supporter of. He’s the prime example of what happens all too often in the NFL, sadly. Blame the NFL, but the player is going to get some blame too.
Webb is buried with crappy WRs and O-Lineman in the preseason and he’s just accepted his fate and is running a simplistic, old-school offense totally not built for his style -- because that’s NYJ cards he’s been dealt. So, he’s throwing a bunch of one-step and fire flare passes…safe passes…impressing no one. Webb has effectively given up. He’s accepted his fate.
Contrast that with Kyle Sloter who keeps gunning it Minnesota, because he may not stay there but he’s trying to show off for 31 other teams. Webb isn’t taking that approach it seems. He looked much more confident and had a swagger to him when he was a Giants draft pick and the whispered future over Eli. Now, dying in NY…he’s rolled over and playing dead. Davis, if you aren’t going to fight for you…I’m not going to keep defending you. Screw the play call…show off…you’re playing in the 4th-quarter of the preseason with CFL players. Take chances downfield, stop Alex Smith-ing the offense the way Darnold and Gase run it because they have to.
Consider that my two weeks’ notice on you, Davis Webb.
Luke Falk is still trying. I’ll defend him still.
The NFL process of QB evaluation and thinking has sucked the life out of Webb…for dynasty as well.
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