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2020 Computer Simulated Season/Faux 2.0 (Weeks 16-17)

Date:
July 22, 2020 4:42 PM
July 31, 2020 9:30 AM

2020 Computer Simulated Season/Faux 2.0 (Weeks 16-17)


My Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated season was run in early June 2020, and some things have happened since then.

 -- Cam has signed with the Patriots…that’s a potential game changer for sure.

 -- Guard Brandon Brooks/PHI tore his ACL, and is gone for the season…that’s a huge hit to our NFC Super Bowl rep in Faux 1.0.

 -- I’ve been studying rosters, schedules, discussing scenarios with those I trust…I have some changed perspective on things.

 -- In early June, it looked like we were headed towards ‘game on’ for life back to normal with the virus…but now we’re looking at a limited preseason and potential quarantine of player’s in-season issues. Team depth, and especially team’s #2 QB matters, strongly, potentially, for 1-2 (or zero) games in this season.

 -- Home field is not going to be as big a deal as it has in the past…Minnesota, for example, stands to lose a HUGE advantage they’ve had. Weather and travel…yes. Crowd sway over things…not as much in 2020.

With all that info/assumptions (above), I’ve run the computer simulated season again…playing each regular season game 100 times and giving the win to the team with the majority of times won in the simulation. And then going right through to the playoffs and crowning a Faux champion.

Preseason simulations and predictions aren’t usually worth the paper they might be printed on, but they are cheap fun and can reveal (to me) some teams to look out for or worry about, compared to what the analysts say. So, for some entertainment before we get to the training camps and preseason (hopefully)…we’ll post the Faux 2.0 season in ten daily parts into early August – and then it’s time to buckle down for the real season to begin to unfold.


Week’s 16-17 Notes…

 -- The Cam-led Patriots (11-5) have a net change +3 wins from Faux 1.0 and win the AFC East, again…two games ahead of (9-7) Buffalo. The Patriots with a top NFL defense is helping them get over with Cam’s experience and renewed running ways.

 -- The Ravens (12-4) close out a division title over the Steelers (11-5), who are the #1 seed wild card. But are the Ravens the AFC #1 seed? We’ll see in a moment…

 -- Houston (9-7) wins out and snags another AFC South title…Indy (8-8) and Tennessee (7-9) miss out on the division title and a wild card.

 -- The Chiefs go (13-3) and are the #1 seed. Las Vegas finishes a strong (10-6) and are the #2 wild card, and Buffalo grabs the third/last wild card in the AFC.

 -- The Eagles (11-5) beat out the Cowboys (10-5) for the NFC East title…helped by their sad bottom half of the division…(3-13) Washington and (2-14) NYG. The Giants earn the #1 pick in the draft, again for the second Faux in a row.

 -- Green Bay (9-7) sneaks in at the end and wins the NFC North over the Vikings (9-7).

 -- The Saints (11-5), this time, beat out the Bucs (9-7) for the NFC South…a reversal from last Faux.

 -- The 49ers (12-4) win out and Seattle (10-6) loses out, giving the 49ers the NFC West again.

 -- Dallas (10-6) and Seattle (10-6) claim wild card spots but the last wild card has three options…the Rams, Vikings, and Bucs. Who will it be? Find out ahead when the first round of the Faux 2.0 playoffs are simulated 100 times and a winner of each game declared and we reveal those results on our way to corning a Faux 2.0 champion.

 

AFC East W L PCT

0.688 NE …. 11 - 5 = 0.688

0.563 BUF … 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.500 MIA … 8 - 8 = 0.500

0.375 NYJ … 6 - 10 = 0.375

===============

AFC North W L PCT

0.750 BAL … 12 - 4 = 0.750

0.688 PIT … 11 - 5 = 0.688

0.438 CLE … 7 - 9 = 0.438

0.188 CIN … 3 - 13 = 0.188

===============

AFC South W L PCT

0.563 HOU … 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.500 IND … 8 - 8 = 0.500

0.438 TEN … 7 - 9 = 0.438

0.375 JAC … 6 - 10 = 0.375

===============

AFC West W L PCT

0.813 KC …. 13 - 3 = 0.813

0.625 LV … 10 - 6 = 0.625

0.500 DEN … 8 - 8 = 0.500

0.250 LAC … 4 - 12 = 0.250

===============

NFC East W L PCT

0.688 PHI … 11 - 5 = 0.688

0.625 DAL … 10 - 6 = 0.625

0.188 WAS … 3 - 13 = 0.188

0.125 NYG … 2 - 14 = 0.125

===============

NFC North W L PCT

0.563 MIN … 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.563 GB …. 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.438 CHI … 7 - 9 = 0.438

0.313 DET … 5 - 11 = 0.313

===============

NFC South W L PCT

0.688 NO …. 11 - 5 = 0.688

0.563 TB …. 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.375 CAR … 6 - 10 = 0.375

0.313 ATL … 5 - 11 = 0.313

===============

NFC West W L PCT

0.750 SF …. 12 - 4 = 0.750

0.625 SEA … 10 - 6 = 0.625

0.563 LAR … 9 - 7 = 0.563

0.375 ARI … 6 - 10 = 0.375

******************************

 -- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

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-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*******************************


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>