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2020 Computer Simulated Season/Faux 2.0 (Weeks 4-6)

Date:
July 22, 2020 3:25 PM
July 27, 2020 9:30 AM

2020 Computer Simulated Season/Faux 2.0 (Weeks 4-6)

 

My Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated season was run in early June 2020, and some things have happened since then.

 -- Cam has signed with the Patriots…that’s a potential game changer for sure.

 -- Guard Brandon Brooks/PHI tore his ACL, and is gone for the season…that’s a huge hit to our NFC Super Bowl rep in Faux 1.0.

 -- I’ve been studying rosters, schedules, discussing scenarios with those I trust…I have some changed perspective on things.

 -- In early June, it looked like we were headed towards ‘game on’ for life back to normal with the virus…but now we’re looking at a limited preseason and potential quarantine of player’s in-season issues. Team depth, and especially team’s #2 QB matters, strongly, potentially, for 1-2 (or zero) games in this season.

 -- Home field is not going to be as big a deal as it has in the past…Minnesota, for example, stands to lose a HUGE advantage they’ve had. Weather and travel…yes. Crowd sway over things…not as much in 2020.

With all that info/assumptions (above), I’ve run the computer simulated season again…playing each regular season game 100 times and giving the win to the team with the majority of times won in the simulation. And then going right through to the playoffs and crowning a Faux champion.

Preseason simulations and predictions aren’t usually worth the paper they might be printed on, but they are cheap fun and can reveal (to me) some teams to look out for or worry about, compared to what the analysts say. So, for some entertainment before we get to the training camps and preseason (hopefully)…we’ll post the Faux 2.0 season in ten daily parts into early August – and then it’s time to buckle down for the real season to begin to unfold.



Weeks 4-6 Notes…

 

 -- The Buffalo Bills (4-2) take the early AFC East lead over New England (3-2)…keep in mind, the Pats will have played (and lost to?) at Seattle and at Kansas City so far. Buffalo got a projected Week 6-win hosting KC on a TNF game.

 -- An interesting bump from Faux 1.0 season…the Steelers are (6-0) and in 1st-place in the AFC South over Baltimore (5-1). The Steelers have faced Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Deshaun Watson (at PIT), Tannehill, Wentz, Mayfield so far and four of those games at home.  Week 7 is PIT at BAL, so an undefeated season is about to end…

 -- Three teams are (3-3) atop the AFC South, but it’s not the three that you think…Jacksonville is (3-3), Tennessee is in last at (2-4). The young Jags have a fairly favorable early schedule…but it’s about to turn on them.

 -- The Vikings (3-3) lead the floundering NFC North.

 -- The Saints (4-1) are a half a game up on Tampa Bay (4-2) in the NFC South.

 -- The 49ers (6-0) are the only other undefeated team, and they have a three-win lead in the division already, Seattle (3-2) and LAR-ARI are (3-3) each.

 

AFC East W L PCT

0.667 BUF … 4 - 2 = 0.667

0.600 NE …. 3 - 2 = 0.600

0.500 MIA … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.333 NYJ … 2 - 4 = 0.333

===============

AFC North W L PCT

1.000 PIT … 6 - 0 = 1.000

0.833 BAL … 5 - 1 = 0.833

0.500 CLE … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.167 CIN … 1 - 5 = 0.167

===============

AFC South W L PCT

0.500 HOU … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.500 IND … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.500 JAC … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.333 TEN … 2 - 4 = 0.333

===============

AFC West W L PCT

0.667 KC … 4 - 2 = 0.667

0.500 DEN … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.400 LV …. 2 - 3 = 0.400

0.333 LAC … 2 - 4 = 0.333

===============

NFC East W L PCT

0.667 DAL … 4 - 2 = 0.667

0.500 PHI … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.167 NYG … 1 - 5 = 0.167

0.000 WAS … 0 - 6 = 0.000

===============

NFC North W L PCT

0.500 MIN …. 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.400 GB … 2 - 3 = 0.400

0.333 CHI … 2 - 4 = 0.333

0.200 DET … 1 - 4 = 0.200

===============

NFC South W L PCT

0.800 NO … 4 - 1 = 0.800

0.667 TB …. 4 - 2 = 0.667

0.500 ATL …. 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.333 CAR … 2 - 4 = 0.333

===============

NFC West W L PCT

1.000 SF … 6 - 0 = 1.000

0.600 SEA …. 3 - 2 = 0.600

0.500 ARI … 3 - 3 = 0.500

0.500 LAR … 3 - 3 = 0.500

******************************

 -- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

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-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*******************************


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>