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2020: Dynasty/Fantasy Offseason News, Observations, Rumors (6/26/2020)

Date:
June 25, 2020 6:59 PM
June 26, 2020 11:00 AM

2020: Dynasty/Fantasy Offseason News, Observations, Rumors (6/26/2020)

 

Every few days on FFM, in the offseason, per usual, I’m going to share some observations from the latest football news and share any rumors/interesting conversations I’m coming across. Two or three items every few days, as I have things of interest to share.

In no particular order, and the ones I found most interesting so far…

 

 -- The #1 question I am asked the past week+… “Will they really play the NFL season?”

My opinion is ‘yes’.

…and I’m not interested in debating/fighting about this opinion because I’m not steeped in deep study or an elected official with insider, big picture information. I’m just giving my opinion, and I’m going to back up my thoughts/feelings with the data that we can all access.

Why have there been so many questions about the season being played this past week, when there wasn’t much wondering the prior several weeks (once things/businesses/states started opening up in various places)? Because the media is hammering away at something they can scare us with to cause a hysteria that they profit from (mostly us paying attention to them in large numbers).

Why do I say ‘hysteria’? Is it because I’m making a political statement? No. It’s an easy answer to blame the media and I can prove it…the same dopes that do all the national/mainstream/big news reporting to ‘we the people’ are the same kind of big media dopes who always interpret football things wrong on ESPN, etc. I know these people well, sadly…it’s been scary getting behind the Wizard of Oz curtain on some of these things over the years.

I’ll use the free, public/accessible national data to prove my point…

Raise your hand if you are feeling uneasy about the rising ‘positive’ cases in the U.S? Many of you (me included) probably feel some level of uneasy because the ‘surging cases’ template is non-stop blaring in our faces/eyes/ears via the news -- but I think we are also smart enough to counter that thought with…well of course there are more cases reported BECAUSE we are testing like crazy. I mean…more testing, more reported cases…duh. Still, we get blasted over and over by ‘hot spots’ and ‘outbreaks’ in the news/media to make us doubt and worry.

Here’s the data on how much COVID-19 testing is growing in simple graph form: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=2020-03-08..&country=~USA

You’re not surprised by that chart, right? More testing…a lot more…is going to lead to more ‘positive’ cases being reported as well. However, just when that makes sense the media blasts you with numbers about how certain states or hospitalization numbers are rising (because that’s what the media is purposefully focusing on – just the certain states that fits the lie they want to deal us/make us/keep us hysterical). But let me show you another chart, one you never (or super rarely/slightly mentioned in passing) see/hear about in the major media whether CNN, Fox, MSNBC, the networks, etc., that’s going to blow your mind (and get ready to question whether it is real, but it is from the CDC and any person can access this).

Here are the U.S. reported COVID-19 deaths by week in simple graph form in 2020 (open up and scroll down a smidgen to the colorful chart): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

Are you shocked by that graph? I’ll bet you are. I was.

You know why we’re shocked, because the media is not out running around reporting how great (or just how lucky) the country (and the world) is doing curing/managing the sick or touting how much the virus is mutating downward (for its own virus survival, which is an odd counter-intuitive but real thing) or how talking about how people are getting the virus, not even knowing they have it, getting ‘over it’ and building antibodies is helping the cause.

Why aren’t the media blasting away daily reports on how much the death rate is dropping like a stone? Because they can’t keep us scared and glued to TV sets for high ratings and public manipulation if things are getting better – ratings and stardom and ad revenues and control of people through division is best made possible by creating hysteria via shaped, incomplete, deceptive news. So, the media hypes the increasing testing positive rates with bad/flawed math (ignoring more tests means more positives) and then very much purposefully keeps the rapidly declining death rates out of the story and not celebrating it. I had to hunt high and low for the COVID mortality info and it wasn’t in any articles in my search I had to go to the CDC website and get it…but I do get a hundred stories into my news feeds per day about how much positive cases are spiking in certain states, and none of those ‘spiking positive cases’ news stories (that I see) ever mention death rates (I know this because that’s what I’m looking for when I get a salacious story panting about all the positive test numbers spike somewhere in the US but the death rates are never there…why? They counted/morbidly celebrated the death rates by the hour when the info was in their favor a few months ago).

We should be celebrating this current death rate drop news…not hiding it. It’s hidden either because every news person is a total idiot, or they are purposefully doing it to keep creating division/fear among us to shape news/control minds and keeping their ratings up (and it’s the latter…but they are also idiots). And because we all still want to trust (to some degree) the media/what the herd is talking about, we fall into the trap because we don’t have time or desires to go searching around for detailed death rates and hospitalization rates…we think the media should provide that. They count on our distractedness to shape the news they want it to go and us to run with it.

I’m not saying it’s time to party and celebrate a defeat of COVID, but the national and world death rates are dropping fast and then within that the odds that someone 20-40 years old (like NFL players less Tom Brady) gets the virus and dies is like negligible since the beginning of this and then within that most every death among 20-40 years old are usually linked with preexisting conditions. I wish I could find the chart where I saw the data, but I recall it was like 90%+ of 20-40 year old deaths from COVID had one or more of the five preexisting health risks/conditions.

NFL football players are the most healthy, most well nourished, most vitamin’d up, most accessible to all the latest healthy technology people on this planet. NFL players may be more at risk of dying via a lightning strike or from being out at a club past 2am than they are of dying of COVID.

The numbers are just not there for NFL players to worry. Some fans in the stands, older coaches…all up for discussion on their risk -- but the players are fine and will be tested multiple times a week and will be smart enough to stay away from those at-risk as needed…like they would be doing when they are not playing football the past few months.

Statistically speaking, with the current virus data, there is no reason to not play football.

Monetarily, there is every reason to do so…and usually money rules everything (like the news, the health organizations supposed to protect us, the politicians, etc.), The players will all choose to play if given a choice…there’s too much money on the line for them not to, and they are at almost 0.0% risk of dying or even knowing they have/had it. There may be 1-2-3 players and a few older assistant coaches who choose to sit out because they have a condition or have a poor immune system child or someone at home to worry about but that’s not going to stop the other 2,000+ players. I’m not sure anyone will sit out, older coaches included, if given the choice.

The players, the NFL, the advertisers, the fans…all want the NFL to go, to get back to work and make money.

The media doesn’t want this because the NFL steals focus and ratings (and money) away. Some politicians don’t want this because the NFL/life back to normal steals focus and spotlight away from them. We have some sick (temperamentally) people in our society that are rooting for the virus because it benefits them in their pocketbook/their ego (many media and politicians chiefly). They are chirping about second wave predictions (despite always being wrong on every prediction on COVID they’ve made so far) and picking out certain state’s trends today to try to do anything to confuse, distract, and cause fear among the public…for their own sick gain, as we pay the price. It’s disgusting.

We might not play NFL games in the People’s Republic of California, but we will play a 2020 football season…all 32 teams, all 17 weeks + playoffs…even if there is a vaunted ‘2nd wave’ – the players are super low risk, they can be isolated if they test positive, and you can keep the players and coaches safe from others while the season goes on…even if they all just camped out in Florida or Ohio or North Dakota or wherever and just had a season all contained to them in 1-2-3 spots all season. They can play without fans just fine.

It makes no sense not to play football (or any other sport) knowing what we know now about this virus, and how fast medical advances are coming to the rescue (and the existing things we have to combat it), and how we just have to deal with this because staying inside doesn’t work for long (on so many levels) and death rates and age demographics do not warrant all of society stopping everything for it (we need to protect the vulnerable not the entire population). So, that’s why I say ‘Yes’ there will be a season…without a doubt.

Just my opinion.

 

 -- OK, back to football! Where is Jamal Adams going to play in the 2020 season?

Jamal is being smart and trying to leverage/talk his way into a massive, early contract extension coming off a great statistical season…or getting himself moved out of New York. Players don’t have a ton of leverage as it is, but even less with the new CBA, so Jamal is doing the only thing he can to renegotiate/secure his future…a lot of yapping.

The Jets probably expect a trade deal equivalent to what the Steelers got for Minkah Fitzpatrick last year. They should also deal away Adams now before tying up a bunch of money on a low priority/lowly paid position like safety going into a 2021 season/next year where the salary cap could be reduced dramatically due a 2020 COVID revenue decline (assuming there will be a big dip). Teams could be in a real pickle for salary cap in 2021 because the cap number is based a lot off the prior year’s revenues.

The problem trading Adams is…all the other teams are aware of this cap problem too.

Everyone keeps saying ‘Dallas’ (and Adams chief among them). But Dallas has supposedly been in need of a safety, according to football analysts, for the last two seasons…and yet they never jump to sign or trade for one or draft a major one. Will McClay is too smart to acquire an expensive safety...and Dallas has their own growing cap issues. Adams will not be traded to Dallas unless the Jets give him away and Dallas doesn’t have to sign him to a new deal (not likely).

All the Adams to Dallas talk is salacious stuff to get you to pay attention to the media…it’s an incomplete, misleading on purpose, unstudied news reporting (like on the current virus stuff/data/trends) because anyone in the industry knows Dallas is no position to pay a safety huge money after a year of Zeke, Amari, Dak payouts. But, the media is only interested in your clicks, and they know you’ll not hold their feet to the fire and you’ll get suckered in by their next hysteria/clickbait. Anything ‘Dallas’ gets more clicks…

Adams wants to go where a team would sign him to a big deal ahead, and the only teams likely interested in doing that would be teams that cannot attract free agents like Adams naturally (like the Jets). So, the Browns, Bengals, Bears, Giants are teams that could have interest…but they also fear the 2021 salary cap concerns for the league too. In the end, I think the Jets will let Adams find out no one is all that interested in acquiring him and the Jets will sign him to a deal in-season 2020 or after the season and keep him because they don’t get players like him through free agency naturally, cheaply, so they have to keep the ones they got.

 

 -- Antonio Brown to Seattle? You’ve seen the latest rumors. I mentioned this a few weeks ago…that it doesn’t make me feel good if I’m a Tyler Lockett owner that Russell Wilson is so gung-ho to add A.B.

Well, that A.B. talk is still out there and heating up. PLUS, Josh Gordon is trying to make his four hundred and seventh comeback attempt. Is Seattle going to roll with Lockett-Metcalf-A.B./Gordon? How is that good for Lockett for fantasy? Or Metcalf?

Seattle may not have either A.B. or Gordon this season, but it sure seems like they are not ‘set’ (in their minds) at WR. It’s like the Eagles backfield situation…Philly is talking to/low ball bid-chasing Carlos Hyde and Devonta Freeman – they are showing all the signs (and have the history of) that they’re going to add a big back and send Miles Sanders’s FF value/ADP crashing down any week now. Tyler Lockett kinda feels like he’s getting to be in a similar boat. Just a wandering thought to scare Lockett owners…

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-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>