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2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Broncos 37, Jets 28

Date:
October 5, 2020 12:03 AM
October 5, 2020 9:24 AM

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Broncos 37, Jets 28

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I knew this was going to be a horrific piece of trash game to watch, but the only thing worse about it was an offensive explosion sprung out of it…and some fantasy players I would never touch had decent games from it. I wanted this game to be the 6-3 final score nightmare it felt like was coming. But, because these two teams are so bad and because we’re in the Arena league mode of the NFL…offense happened. Terrible offense, but it happened.

In a game filled with lucky passes that should’ve been picks (Broncos) and egregious/dangerous penalties (Jets), the Broncos ultimately won. Someone had to win! Now, 3rd-string QBs are handing losses to Sam Darnold and Adam Gase…how low can this franchise go? (0-16) might be how low it’s going. A bottom 3 QB, the worst RB group in the NFL, the #1-2 worst WR group, a bottom five O-Line and a stripped of talent via trade and COVID opt-out defense – how can this team win a game this year, if not this one?

The Jets only real shots at wins this year are Week 12 hosting Miami (if the weather is bad) and Week 16 vs. the Browns.

Denver doesn’t have a lot of wins in their future either…at NE, MIA, KC before a Week 8 BYE. The Broncos could be (1-5/2-4) heading into their bye week and on their way to a 3-4 wins season at best.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Brett Rypien (19-31 for 242 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) desperately tried to give this game away. One of his TD passes was that joke to Jerry Jeudy (2-61-1/4) where the DB was about to fair catch the incoming duck but because Pierre Desir (8 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT TD) forgot how human hands worked on the play…Jeudy caught it through Desir’s hands and scored a long TD.

Without that should’ve-been-a-pick catch, Jeudy was one catch for 13 yards otherwise. Wonderful.

If the Broncos feel like they ‘got something’ with Rypien for another start, then bet your life on the Patriots Week 5.

 

 -- Tim Patrick (6-113-1/7) is store-brand Courtland Sutton for the Broncos now…the big body/target to throw prayers towards. I think he’ll be the leading Broncos receiver for the 2020 season, for whatever that means…likely a WR3.

 

 -- Sam Darnold (23-42 for 230 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-84-1) will likely miss a game or two or more. Adam Gase has two reasons to hold Darnold out…

1) So he has an excuse as to why they are losing (look at all the injuries!). If Joe Flacco comes in and wins a game, then Gase can take credit.

2) Keep Darnold off the field…because it’s a constant reminder of how bad Darnold is, and that’s not blamed on Darnold – it’s now blamed on Gase. Less Darnold on your TV, less embarrassment for Gase.

Adam Gase isn’t getting fired in-season. The GM is hand picked by Gase. They will not go anywhere until both are fired together at the end of the season, if even then. They’re a package deal of sorts. Blame spawn of owner Woody Johnson for this mess, ultimately – and he can’t be fired, so this will never be fixed on purpose.

 

 -- I never thought Jeff Smith (7-81-0/9) would get a fair shake in the NFL…the former QB-turned-WR in college has been on the Jets practice squad since 2019 and didn’t get any play when the injuries started hitting the WR corps prior, but he got in this week and looked good.

Smith (a Boston College product) ran a 4.36 40-time with a 6.87 three-cone at his 2019 Pro Day…he has athleticism, and obviously some skills. He’s like a better Greg Ward on a worse offense/team.

Jamison Crowder (7-104-0/10) is going to dominate the targets here, and when Breshad Perriman returns – he’ll see good looks too (however ‘good’ they can be on the Jets). And remember…Joe Flacco knows Perriman from their time together with the Ravens. Could be a shift to Perriman over Crowder for more targeting IF Darnold is out.

Denzel Mims is about to return too. Smith is probably going to fade away from FF about as fast as Braxton Berrios (0-0-0/3) just did.  

 

 -- Note…Noah Fant (5-35-0/6) will miss time, and people will equivocate that Albert Okwuegbunam (DNP) is a easy/similar fill-in and that he has a connection with Drew Lock Played together, starred together at Missouri)…and that’s true on a certain level, BUT Vic Fangio has had no interest in playing him yet…so, I suspect Jake Butt will be the starter/player with Albert O. getting a few snaps here and there to begin his NFL journey.

…but, note, ‘Albert O.’ is quite the specimen for a TE prospect…a 4.49 runner. He might be good for a homerun ball/big play or two in a game right away. .

 

 -- DEN ILB Josey Jewell (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2.5 TFLs) is FINALLY starting to play well…at least well for IDP.

First two games for Jewell 2020 = 4.0 total tackles

Last two games for Jewell 2020 = 6.5 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 0.5 PDs

He’s back onto IDP radars stronger now.

 

 -- You know who looks good for Denver…rookie CB Michael Ojemuda (2 tackles, 1 PD). With Bradley Chubb getting healthy and Jewell playing a bit better and Ojemuda breaking through and A.J. Bouye set to return…the Broncos defense might be better in the days and weeks to come.

The problem is the schedule is brutal from here. Not a good/juicy matchup after Week 6 hosting Miami. Maybe Week 14 at Carolina is decent, that’s about it. Denver-DST is just a streamer option in desperation on decent/OK matchups but has hope/upside in desperation weeks if they get fully healthy.

 

 -- You might have seen Lions’ RB Ty Johnson was claimed by the Jets over the weekend. What’s odd about that is – the Jets already have a full backfield.

They have Gore-Perine-Ballage…all of whom Gase is down with. What do they need a 4th RB for?

When you consider that Ty would actually be their 5th RB, with Le’Veon Bell set to return this week…then someone needs to go. Hmmm…I wonder where Bell is getting traded to this week?

 

My top contenders for a Bell trade this week:

1) Chicago (sell Montgomery fast)

2) Steelers reunion

3) Chiefs (and then there will be a great CEH depression)

4) Washington (if they want to try and win that terrible division)

5) Giants (Freeman can be cut in an instant)

The Bears make WAY too much sense for this to happen ASAP.

 

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

73 = J Smith

68 = Hogan

65 = Crowder

10 = Cager

08 = Berrios

 

37 = Gore

30 = Ballage (wow)

10 = Perine

 

57 = D Hamilton

53 = Patrick

48 = Jeudy

14 = Hamler



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>