2020 Faux 2.0/Computer Simulation: AFC Wild Card Playoffs
My Faux 1.0/Computer Simulated season was run in early June 2020, and some things have happened since then.
-- Cam has signed with the Patriots…that’s a potential game changer for sure.
-- Guard Brandon Brooks/PHI tore his ACL, and is gone for the season…that’s a huge hit to our NFC Super Bowl rep in Faux 1.0.
-- I’ve been studying rosters, schedules, discussing scenarios with those I trust…I have some changed perspective on things.
-- In early June, it looked like we were headed towards ‘game on’ for life back to normal with the virus…but now we’re looking at a limited preseason and potential quarantine of player’s in-season issues. Team depth, and especially team’s #2 QB matters, strongly, potentially, for 1-2 (or zero) games in this season.
-- Home field is not going to be as big a deal as it has in the past…Minnesota, for example, stands to lose a HUGE advantage they’ve had. Weather and travel…yes. Crowd sway over things…not as much in 2020.
With all that info/assumptions (above), I’ve run the computer simulated season again…playing each regular season game 100 times and giving the win to the team with the majority of times won in the simulation. And then going right through to the playoffs and crowning a Faux champion.
Preseason simulations and predictions aren’t usually worth the paper they might be printed on, but they are cheap fun and can reveal (to me) some teams to look out for or worry about, compared to what the analysts say. So, for some entertainment before we get to the training camps and preseason (hopefully)…we’ll post the Faux 2.0 season in ten daily parts into early August – and then it’s time to buckle down for the real season to begin to unfold.
*Simulating/playing these games 100 times and advancing the team that wins the most times, and then letting the Super Bowl be a one-time roll of the dice simulation at the end.
(1) Kansas City (BYE)
(5) Pittsburgh at (4) Houston
Pittsburgh wins 52% of the simulations.
Both good teams, solid offenses, top QBs…but the Steelers defense gives them the edge in the end.
(6) Las Vegas at (3) New England
New England wins 53% of the simulations.
This one was a lot closer than you’d think…home field, travelling west-to-east gives the Pats a slight tip of the scales. The Cam-led Patriots have found their way to the final four of the AFC.
(7) Buffalo at (2) Baltimore
Baltimore wins 62% of the simulations.
I keep thinking back to their game last year…in the midst of the Ravens crushing every team, the Bills came along and stayed close/had a chance to beat the Ravens on a final drive but couldn’t close the deal. This is a tough Buffalo team, but you can only go so far with Josh Allen...Allen can try to out-run Lamar, but he isn’t Lamar.
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
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