INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.
It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.
Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.
I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.
The schedule is planned to be…
Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).
Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)
Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)
Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)
Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.
We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.
Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…
2019-20 Dynasty-Fantasy Wild Card Playoff Review: Seahawks 17, Eagles 9
We all probably watched/followed this game with the same mindset…as soon as Carson Wentz went down early in the game, non-Seattle/Philly fans started thinking about doing something else besides watching this game. As soon as Josh McCown entered, I sorta checked out of the live watch…started looking at my cell phone more, did a little Amazon browsing, looked at news headlines, etc.
…and then all of a sudden I look up and it’s only 10-6 Seattle in the 3rd-quarter. Not too long after that revelation, Seattle hit a long TD and took a 17-6 lead…and it was back to half-watching/half-surfing my phone.
…and then all the sudden I look up and the Eagles are pushing down the field later in the 4th-quarter and we have a ball game. How are the McCown-led, totally racked by injury Eagles still in this game? Ultimately, the Eagles stalled out on their final chances to tie the game/Seattle kept them away from any TDs all game and the Seahawks survived and moved on.
The Eagles now enter an offseason where if Carson Wentz wasn’t under enough scrutiny…now we’ll have months of debate on if he is the right franchise QB, have his skills eroded, and can he ever stay healthy? The bring back Foles movement has already begun. That’s not happening, nor is it the answer. It would make for a great offseason of Eagles chatter if it did happen.
The Eagles are at somewhat of a crossroads for 2020/their future but helping the future more than anyone – Jerry Jones. As a Philly fan, if I gave you two choices: (1) You win this 1st-round playoff game but Dallas hires Urban Meyer, or (2) You lose this 1st-round game but Dallas hires Mike McCarthy – which path would you desire for your Iggles? The best thing to happen to the Eagles’ (and Redskins, and Giants) is Jerry Jones as GM making sure he only hires lackeys.
Seattle is leading a charmed life… First, they scuffle to this win aided by Wentz’s injury. Second, the Vikings win which means Seattle heads to very beatable Green Bay and not having to play the team they’re less likely to beat…San Francisco.
*2020 Comments: And Seattle lost to Green Bay, so the point is moot. The biggest takeaway re-remembering this...remember when Urban Meyer to Dallas was like a thing? It wasn't wild speculation...it was a thing in-season 2019. How did they end up with Mike McCarthy? We all know the answer.*
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The old R.C., the guy from way back in 2019 would have taken to the computer and penned a distraught, breathless message about how much better Boston Scott (6-25-0, 3-23-0/3) looks and is than Miles Sanders (14-69-0, 3-8-0/5) for the 5th+ time this season…and I woulda taken a shot at Sanders as the reason Philly lost this game (that 4th & 4 dropped pass was devastating…and you have to know Sanders doesn’t have great hands, but I digress) – but not gonna do it, wouldn’t be prudent, at this juncture.
Nope. I’m a new (and hopefully improved) R.C.
Talent schmalent. I’m looking at situations where the team is in love with one running back and I am going to decide to love them as well…my love-meter of them will range on which of them are talented or not based on my scouting models/grades. But I will no longer hate them and predict their downfall with aplomb.
Is Boston Scott more dangerous with the ball than Miles Sanders, to me? Absolutely.
Is Jordan Howard a way better lead runner than Miles Sanders, to me? No question…hell, even the Eagles had to admit at one point this season.
All those above statements don’t mean jack squat for fantasy 2020, really. The GM is vested in Miles Sanders. The team/coaches went with Sanders as a starter right away for the season even though Jordan Howard was there and more proven and more experienced and clearly more talented an interior runner (and proved it within a few weeks of the season). When a team loves an RB (sing that like ‘When a Man Loves a Woman’)…he can do no wrong. They’ll turn their back on their best RB…they’ll spend their very last dime trying to hold on to the RB they love. If that RB is bad…they can’t see it.
Look at how sad the Bears’ offense was in 2019 when trying to push David Montgomery. It’s obvious to you and me, but I guarantee you Montgomery leads the league in carries in 2020…he’ll probably set an NFL record for carries in a season if Matt Nagy has his way. Results are meaningless. The heart wants what the heart wants…and when an NFL head coach loves an RB, get out of the way of trying to predict a depth chart overtake by a more superior back.
All hail Miles Sanders for 2020! Not for me, but for everybody else. I can’t do it. My new leaf -- I’m just not going to waste a lot of time on predicting and promoting the alternative hopefuls to Sanders like the Eagles would wake up and realize it. Boston Scott will be a 1-2 touch a game forgotten Darren Sproles-alike in 2020 (if he makes the roster) and Jordan Howard will leave via free agency and the Eagles will bring in some physically bigger back ‘hack’ that won’t threaten Sanders. LeGarrette Blount check your cellphone often this spring.
-- Will the Eagles draft a QB to protect themselves on the mounting Carson Wentz issues?
Can I ask another very serious question?
Are you out of your mind? *2020 Comments: I guess you weren't pout of your mind!*
Of course, the Eagles won’t do that. You or I would be planning for such contingencies because we know QB means everything and Wentz is giving us performance issues on tape in 2019, injury issues for years, leadership issues…of course, WE’D look at contingency plans.
What will the Eagles do? Nothing. They’ll tell you how Nate Sudfeld is Nick Foles-like and then keep a list of 40+ year old retired QBs handy if something happens.
Here’s how most every NFL team is run, and what would happen if I ever worked for an NFL team…for the one day before I was fired: https://youtu.be/Gb428ySuFjA
Nick Foles? Are you kidding me? Why would they want anything to do with the one guy who ever won them a Super Bowl in their history, by single-handedly putting the team on his back and getting it? That’s not the way this works – you don’t want things that win/work, you want things you drafted, and everyone thought would be amazing to be the thing that works. If Foles comes back it reminds everyone of how stupid the Eagles management was on Foles pre-Super Bowl title, and how stupid after. We can’t have stupidity reminders around. They’d rather lose with their consensus-loved smart ‘plan’. Then win by mistake/good fortune falling in to their laps.
2020 Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball Subscriptions Now Available
It’s time for season #2 of our last season’s debut subscription…Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball.
I created Dynasty offseason as a way to communicate rankings/valuations on (500+) existing players (and also 400+ IDPs) for Dynasty and Keeper planning purposes (trades, etc.) as well as getting the jump on Best Ball/MFL drafts that begin in February and run all the rest of the year.
The fastest growing success percentage/money earning with FFM scouting/rankings/etc. is in those Best Ball/MFLs – draft a deep roster and forget it until the season begins, and then just watch the results…no lineup settings, no trading. Just pay to compete, out-draft everyone else, and try and cash in on our early/better read on things.
Dynasty Offseason subscriptions will be available when College Football Metrics begins (1/3/20), and you can purchase as a combo or just individually the one you want/need. However, the Dynasty Offseason rankings, etc., will not kickoff until right after the Super Bowl (articles and reports will post in January but player rankings/mock drafts not until past the Super Bowl)…and then we pile in material daily/weekly until opening day of the new NFL season.
If you were not a part of the Dynasty Offseason program last year, I will have more details on it on my playoff game recaps in 2020 and some additional explanation on Best Ball/MFL leagues, how to get started in them, how they work, etc. – if you’re not doing Best Ball/MFLs…you are missing out.
-- The ‘woke’ R.C. continues…
‘Woke’ to the fact that NFL head coaches do what they do so predictably, I shouldn’t try to out-think the ones that have been around for years.
Old R.C. would say, “Surely, Pete Carroll will recognize what he has in Russell Wilson (18-30 for 325 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) and he’ll unleash him more as a passer…ESPECIALLY with Chris Carson out!!” I’ve probably written some variation of that line every week for the past couple of weeks, since Carson got hurt.
Russell Wilson TD passes in a game since Week 10 and including this playoff game: 1-1-2-0-2-1-2-1. And 300+ yard passing games in that span…one.
When Pete Carroll’s precious running game was taken away via injury to his #1, #2, and #3 RBs…did he lean on Wilson? Nope. His first plan was – someone call Marshawn Lynch and see if he’ll come out of retirement to steal more paychecks. I mean, remember that one run that one time against Chicago? And just in case call Robert Turbin, too.
Shaun Alexander, keep your cell phone turned on…you might be starting in two weeks.
Are Pete Carroll and Schottenheimer-offspring returning in 2020? They are? OK, no thanks then to Russell Wilson for fantasy 2020.
From Week 10 on, Wilson was the #26 fantasy QB in PPG…behind Jeff Driskel, Eli Manning, and even Baker Mayfield. Somehow a few human beings living amongst us voted Russell Wilson as the league MVP over Lamar Jackson!
-- We all just saw a good game from D.K. Metcalf (7-160-1/9) with a nice game-sealing bomb catch to convert a 1st-down and ice the game. And because we saw it on a solo night game on national TV, we think Metcalf is a breakout star of the rookie class among WRs.
He’s fine. Had a good year, better than expected but most his games were solid #2 WR things…4-6 catches and 60-70 yards per game, and about a TD every other game. And it was the same work over and over…long bombs to Metcalf, and hope he comes up with it – which is exactly the way he should be used. Kudos to Wilson-Carroll for that. However, there’s not much more to build on from there…we’ve hit peak Metcalf, in a sense.
At the same time, Diontae Johnson becomes a miracle worker for the Steelers with QBs who may not be in the league ever again starting this year and closed the season wonderfully…and…and nobody cares. No one cares among the analyst class anyways.
The instant success of Metcalf and Diontae and other rookie WRs makes me scoff again at ‘3rd year’ wide receivers (needing three years to matter). Everything is happening faster in the NFL now…more and more talent at WR and QB.
It also makes me laugh at the 1st-round WRs taken in the NFL Draft are usually not the right WRs to take first in the class…it’s like 1st-round WRs are cursed the past 5+ years.
Here are the (current) best two WRs from each of the first 3 rounds of the 2019 NFL Draft:
1st) Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry
2nd) A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, or D.K. Metcalf
3rd) Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin
Which duo would you rather have for the NFL…for FF 2020+? Whatever your answer…I bet it’s not the 1st-round duo.
-- Marshawn Lynch (6-7-1) came up big for this playoff game…1.1 yards per carry. Yikes.
How are the Seahawks going to beat the 49ers/Packers off a BYE week with Lynch as the lead back on an offense built to run and run and run?
…which means Seattle will probably win.
-- Jacob Hollister (2-16-0/4) is making a great case for the importance of Will Dissly for Seattle for 2020 fantasy.
Remember when Dissly went down and Hollister had 3 TDs in two games Week 9-10 and we got all excited? Since then…3.4 rec. with 32.6 yards per game and no TDs for Hollister.
-- Dallas Goedert (7-73-0/8) led the way for the depleted Eagles receiving options in this game. Goedert would be a star anywhere else, but he’ll be a backup again or co-starter deferring to Zach Ertz (2-44-0/4) in 2020.
Ertz and Goedert are not free agents until 2022. Goedert is basically screwed in Philly until then. Heck, the Eagles are talking contract extension with Ertz. Ertz is Wentz’s guy…and that’s all we need to know about that.
Goedert finished 11th in PPR PPG among TEs this season…not bad, but such a limited upside on this team.
Why don’t the Eagles trade him? Hold on, I have to stop laughing from that thought. What? An NFL team trade/exchange a young, talented player in a unique interesting way for another young, talented player to help fill roster voids? No, you only trade veterans or bust young players or stars complaining their way off the team and you do it for draft picks in the NFL. Two good players traded for each other to fill needs…you gotta be kidding me.
66 trades in 2019 in the NFL…less than 10 of those trades involved a player for player type move and almost all those were junk players exchanged. Eric Murray for Emmanuel Ogbah was the most interesting player for player exchange where it really wasn’t about draft picks or junk players exchanged.
Don’t hold your breath for a Goedert trade in 2020.
The NFL has 2-3-4x the players on their teams/payroll than the other major sports but have about 10% of the interesting trades of the other leagues.
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!
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