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Fantasy Football Metrics

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Chiefs 40, Raiders 9

Date:
August 17, 2020 1:11 PM
August 22, 2020 9:30 AM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August 2020…


=======================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Chiefs 40, Raiders 9

 

Cold, windy road game for warm-weather Oakland and it got out of hand fast. 21-0 KC at the half, the third KC TD of the half a pick-six backbreaker. It was 31-0 KC with 6+ minutes remaining. 40-9 the merciful final.

It’s hard to read anything into the work here for fantasy because Oakland got down so much, so quick and the weather was not conducive for offense…the last 20+ minutes of the game was just a mercy killing, a run-run-run clock and get it over with event with backups in for KC in spots on defense. It was never really a ‘real’ game.

Kansas City goes to 8-4 and is all but set up to win the division. I think they beat the Patriots this week and then win out for a 12-4 record and a possible #2 seed. If they lose to New England and fall to 8-5, they won’t get a BYE and if Oakland wins to stay a game behind…the AFC West is still open for another few weeks, but with KC holding all the cards. The most likely outcome is KC wins the AFC West and is a #2 or #3 seed…possible #4 seed (since they lost to HOU this season already).

*2020 Comments: KC won out, did go 12-4, was the #2 seed...did win the whole darn thing!*

Oakland is still alive for things. They really have a chance at a wild card IF they beat Tennessee this week. A win would push the Raiders to 7-6 with tiebreaker edge over (7-6 or 6-7) Indy and (7-6) Tennessee. If the Raiders can win this week, they could win two OR three of their final 3 games and be a 10-win for sure wild card or a 9-win hopeful with the edge over Indy/Tenn. The Raiders’ season comes down to Week 14 hosting Tennessee really…lose and they are likely toast. Win and they are odds-on for the final wild card in the AFC fighting the Steelers for the final spot. Oakland has JAX, @LAC, @DEN to finish the season.

*2020 Comments: LV lost...and was toast for the playoffs. The season swirled down the drain from there.*

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- To what are you basing your Darwin Thompson (11-44-1) enthusiasm on?

He’s barely played at all this season…in a backfield always in turmoil and needing help, having an open door for anyone to seize it – and, yet, he’s not been trusted all year.

Finally, when Darrel Williams goes down injured in-game and Damien Williams is out, leading by 30+ points, KC decides to let LeSean McCoy (5-10-1, 3-20-0/3) rest and let Darwin have an extended practice session in a lost game for the final 20 minutes and he did OK enough. Not exactly a ringing endorsement or sweet resume to get excited about for Week 14.

This week, KC plays for A LOT at stake at New England…I cannot foresee this being a sudden breakout game for Thompson. Spencer Ware may walk in off the street, into an offense he already knows, and be more a factor than Thompson -- for pass protection reasons, etc.

In upcoming weeks against teams KC should handle, if Damien is out more…then I could see more Darwin work to get him ready for the playoffs, but this week AT the Patriots…a guy not really used all year…risky play for FF Week 14.

*2020 Comments: 4 carries for 7 yards...but 4 catches for Darwin. Thompson was a huge disappointment for FF, as I expected, and now he's barely hanging on to relevance going into 2020.*

 

 -- In last year’s playoff game, Tyreek Hill (5-55-0/8) was used as a decoy essentially…1 catch on 3 targets. Not surprisingly, KC struggled on offense until a furious comeback attempt 2nd-half sent it to OT and the Chiefs lost.

Can the Patriots take out Tyreek Hill? Sure. Will they? Maybe. They tried to take out Travis Kelce in 2018 regular season and the Chiefs scored 40 points in a loss, and Tyreek had 3 TDs. When they focused on Hill in the playoffs, the Pats allowed 31 points and almost lost.

I’m guessing they’ll go after Hill, but most teams do and Hill eventually finds his way.

No matter what, you have to start Tyreek…and pray.

*2020 Comments: Tyreek had a solid but not spectacular 6-62-0/8 line vs. a-then feared matchup with Stephon Gilmore.*

 

 -- Josh Jacobs (17-104-0) has been playing with a broken shoulder for weeks we all found out this week. If he’s been working through games with it for weeks, I assume he will do so again in Week 14 as well…a must-win/season make or break game.

Jacobs played reduced snaps at the end of this game because they were getting killed, so no sense subjecting him to more hits.

If Jacobs is worse off and goes inactive, I’d assume a Washington-Richard split with DeAndre Washington (2-50, 3-44-0/5) seeing a bit more carries and Jalen Richard (1-20, 1-6-0/2) a few more targets.

******************************************

2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon

It’s almost time…

Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).

We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.

More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.

******************************************

 

 -- Where has Tyrell Williams (1-9-0/4) gone? A TD in every one of his first 5 games, and then no TDs the past 5 games…and barely WR3-4 work or targeting the past 5 games.

This week could be a bounce back with the Titans down two starting corners, including their best one…Adoree Jackson.

Tyrell is playing heavy snaps and been targeted well for the Raiders, but the Raiders haven’t been leaning on anyone heavy outside of Darren Waller off-and-on. Everything looks fine on tape, it’s just not happening between Tyrell and Carr of late. Must win this week, and more passing projected…could be a bounce back spot.

*2020 Comments: The Raiders drafting two WRs highly in 2020 is a sign of what Vegas thinks of Tyrell...*

 

 -- The Chiefs-DST has played well in four of their last 5 games. Holding their last two opponents to 17 and 9 points respectively. Since Week 7, the Chiefs-DST is #6 in fantasy scoring (FantasyPros scoring).

The Chiefs have 7 turnovers created in their last two games. They’ve held opposing passers to under 250 yards in five of their last 7 games. They have a vicious pass rush group when enough of them are healthy. Frank Clark should play this week (illness) as a key to stopping/slowing the Patriots.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

24 = McCoy

23 = Darwin Th

 

34 = Jacobs

15 = D Washington

11 = Richard



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 -- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>