ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

ffm logo home

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

SUBSCRIBE NOW >>
Get the app
App link only works on mobile.
Customer Service
"The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty fantasy football profiteers
rss feed

2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Texans 28, Patriots 22

Date:
August 17, 2020 6:04 PM
August 22, 2020 5:00 PM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


===========================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Texans 28, Patriots 22

 

The final score was closer than the game really was. This was a clear, resounding victory by the Texans. This game was 28-9 Houston with 3+ minutes left. A late frenzy made it look closer.

The Texans played well and inspired but they weren’t awesome…just very good and quick/spirited. That’s all it takes to beat the Patriots these days. I say, the Patriots dynasty is dead. It died the night of the Ravens game. It died more here.

The days of saying, “Yeah, but the Patriots will find a way.” I think it’s time to put that thinking away. The O-Line has sustained too many injuries. Brady is slipping to ‘good’ not great. They have no kicking game. They are overrated-good on defense (the schedule made them better than they are, statistically).

The most telling thing about the Patriots for me – you know who is beating the Patriots now? Good NFL teams with experienced coaches who have played the Patriots a bunch the last 1-2 years. Dallas craps their pants going to play NE this season. So does Cleveland. The Eagles falter (no Nick Foles to save them). But Baltimore is not only not intimidated, they hate the Patriots more than any team in the league. Buffalo has no fear of New England at all…the Bills, under McDermott, always line up and fight them. Houston has played them tough in the regular season three years in a row.

What do those three teams (BAL, BUF, HOU) just mentioned have in common? Beat the brakes off the Patriots this season, except the Bills who played with/ahead of NE but were robbed earlier in the season. You know who else has a good team with an experienced coach and is used to playing the Patriots – Kansas City…and they go to NE this week. I think the Chiefs will join the crowd and whack the Pats. Week 16, I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo drops New England and makes the AFC East a race to the end. I’d project the Patriots to lose to KC, fall to 10-3 and then win out to go 13-3 and be the #2 seed. Hard to call Buffalo going to Foxboro and beating the Patriots Week 16, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Houston took control of its destiny with a resounding defeat of New England. They are 8-4 and have two games left with Tennessee. They can split those two games and finish 11-5 and win the AFC South going away, which I believe they will.

*2020 Comments: After a gift early 2019 schedule for the Patriots, they lost to BAL-HOU-KC in the 2nd-half of the season. They lost to the #1-2-3 seeds in the AFC. The Patriots were no longer the team to beat, they were defeated and had to change off of Brady and re-tool.*

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- My biggest takeaway from this game was seeing how Duke Johnson (9-36-0, 5-65-1/6) is becoming the X-Factor in this offense. He’s slowly transitioning from ‘getting some touches’ or ‘3rd-down back’ to the real weapon out of the backfield.

Four TDs his last 7 games.

3.7 rec. (4.7 targets) per game the last five games. 61.3 total yards per game the past 4 games.

And they are just scratching the surface. I think it’s starting to dawn on them that he’s the missing link to make this offense purr a little more. They don’t need to be a power run team, they should be a Fastbreak offense with Deshaun Watson, and Duke as one of the receiving threats/check downs/weapons/mismatches.

 

Duke can be their James White (14-79-0, 8-98-2/11) only better. And speaking of White…if the Pats are going to play catch-up in games, then White is going to be a solid RB1.5 in PPR again.

The last 4 weeks for James White…

In sluggish drubbings of PHI and DAL = 17 touches, 35 total yards, 5 catches, 0 TDs.

In chasing BAL and HOU in losses = 39 touches, 251 total yards, 10 catches, 3 TDs

 

Which do you think it will be against KC this week?

*2020 Comments: It was 5-27-0/7 targets low impact White, actually.*

 

 -- Will Fuller (2-8-0/2) has played 9 games this season and scored 11+ PPR points in a game twice. Seven times he’s been a weak-to-bad FF start.

There is no real rhyme or reason to his pattern of performance…he is who he is – an erratic fantasy WR who burns you more times than not.

 

 -- Who is Brady throwing to when Edelman is covered?

James White.

He certainly is not getting Sanu-Dorsett-Meyers-Harry over. You can't trust any of them for FF.

N’Keal Harry (0-0-0/1) had one target -- he was beaten to a spot by a DB early in the game and a pick happened…and Brady was done with him.

Jakobi Meyers (3-46-0/7) seemed like his next best/favorite option. Meyers was left open a bunch and lost 2-3 catches reversed via offensive penalties. But I have no idea who you could FF-trust Meyers any given week…he’s not that great.

It’s Edelman-White and then a mystery for Brady…Meyers seemed to be more that guy with Dorsett.

 

 -- Tom Brady’s (24-47 for 326 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) Comp. Pct. the last five games…

117 completions, 213 attempts = 54.9%.

His TD passes in games since Week 6: 0-1-2-1-0-1-3…and this three TD game here was achieved late and a bit lucky.

Whether it’s Brady, the O-Line, the receivers or all of the above…we’re watching the real fade of Brady, and probably his last season…by his choice.

 

 -- You can’t trust the Patriots-DST this week v. KC, but then we’re back on with @CIN, BUF the following two weeks. The Patriots defense has been exposed, but against Dalton-Allen it will be back to its comfort zone.

 

 -- Very quietly Houston DE Jacob Martin (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB hits) is heating up. He’s the guy who was acquired in the Clowney trade…and he has 2.5 sacks the last two weeks of increased play with J.J. Watt out.

Clowney has 3.0 sacks this season, Martin has 2.5 sacks the past two games playing lesser snaps. Martin is a good athlete and interesting pass rush prospect.

*2020 Comments: 2019 season...

3.5 sacks = Jacob Martin (14 games, barely playing more than 15% of the snaps)

3.0 sacks = Clowney (13 games, playing 60%+ of the snaps always)

Why does the media continue to coo about Clowney?

Why does Seattle not want anything to do with him after their year with him? Why did Houston give him away? Because he's one of the most overrated defensive players in the league.*

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

37 = Duke

21 = Hyde

 

41 = Fells

31 = Akins

14 = J Thomas

 

67 = J White

15 = Michel

 

79 = Edelman

61 = Dorsett

60 = Meyers

22 = Harry

19 = Sanu



******************************

-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!

*******************************

Tags:
Support us by shopping our affiliate links>>
NFL Shop

NFLShop - The Official Online Shop of the NFL!

Fanatics

Sports Apparel, Jerseys and Fan Gear at Fanatics.com Sports Shop

Draft Kings

Daily fantasy sports for cash! Play FREE to win millions!

SportsMemorabilia.com

Shop for Authentic Autographed Collectibles at SportsMemorabilia.com

StubHub

Best Selection of NFL Tickets on StubHub!

Steiner Sports

15% OFF Authentic Sports and Entertainment Signed Memorabilia!

Amazon

Shop our Amazon affiliate link and save!

FansEdge by Fanatics

Shop the Freshest Sports Apparel Styles from FansEdge

LeagueSafe

Collect League Dues...for FREE!

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>