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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Cowboys 44, Rams 21

Date:
August 22, 2020 5:44 PM
August 28, 2020 9:30 PM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


==============================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Cowboys 44, Rams 21

 

Well, I was sure the Rams were going to win big here. How could they not? Hottest team in the league, aside from the Ravens. Dallas coming in…ice cold. Rams stay alive for the playoffs with a win. Dallas could’ve lost and still been good for the NFC East (with a win Wk 16). I bet big on the Rams.

The next thing I know, Dallas is going up 28-7 before the half.

The Rams went down 7-0, and then tied it up 7-7 in the 2nd-quarter. Two Rams defenders ran into each other springing Tavon Austin for a long TD and Dallas went up 14-7…OK, just some bad luck so far. Dallas then scored after the two-minute warning to jump ahead 21-7…Goff then got picked and set up a TD right before the half, and this game that was close in play, for most of the 1st-half, totally fell apart.

That’s how some NFL games go…a good bounce here, a tipped pass pick there, a 3rd & 10 conversion here, a 4th & 2 midfield get there, and a team gets on a roll. That was Dallas this game…played well, beat the Rams legit but got a lot of good fortune to help light the fuse. The Rams couldn’t answer back and then just rolled over.

The Rams are 8-6 and need a miracle to get to the playoffs over Minnesota…the Rams have to win out and the Vikings lose out. Minnesota may fold, but I don’t know that the Rams can win two games in a row @SF and ARI. It’s not crazy, but Minnesota losing back-to-back home games would be a total shock. Wrong time for the Rams to be playing the 49ers this week too. We project the 9-7 Rams will miss the playoffs. *2020 Comments...and that's what happened.*

Dallas is now 7-7 and can win the NFC East this week with a win over Philly. If Dallas loses, they need to win Week 17 and have the Eagles fall Week 17. I’m leaning Dallas wins Week 16 over PHI (too many PHI injuries right now), and thus wraps the division and then are a dangerous playoff team in Round One hosting SF or SEA.

Not many big FF notes from this game…it was kinda over quick and sloppy and not very FF fruitful outside of the RBs doing normal RB things (scoring most all the TDs) and then Tony Pollard rolling in mop up time.

*2020 Comments: I kinda forgot...Dallas went into Week 16 vs. PHI with the Eagles decimated with injury...but then Dak was hurt too and it was a sloppy 17-9 win for Philly, and thus the NFC East title for the Eagles.*

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Tyler Higbee (12-111-0/14) is real. He looks great. He’s running faster than I’ve seen him before. It looks like he cut 10-15 pounds and became more like his slimmer college receiver self than the thick blocker TE…just to my eyes/they maybe playing tricks on me.

No reason not to trust him until he gives us reason not to, and I don’t think Gerald Everett being back (if he is) would scare me. Higbee is found a whole new gear in this offense (after being in hiding for 3 years).

It helped that Jaylon Smith (5 tackles) is the most overrated big name LB in the NFL, and he can’t cover anything and if you need to go left he goes right and vice-versa 80% of the time, it feels like to me.

Higbee has popped against the #32 (worst) against the TE Cardinals and #21 against the TE Cowboys. This week he gets the #3 (best) 49ers defense against the TE. He might be in for a bit of a rude awakening, but the connection is so strong right now it’s hard to bet against it.

*2020 Comments: It never stopped for Higbee late 2019.*

 

 -- Can you trust the Dallas-DST against the Eagles Week 16?

I think so. A nice performance here, just giving up junk late…it was 37-7 with 3+ minutes left in the game before a bunch of cheap TDs broke out.

Dallas has a solid defense and the Eagles have no receivers or real ball control RBs, and Carson Wentz has struggled all season…and struggled the last two weeks before getting bailed out with numbers in the 2nd-half against bad pass defenses (NYG and WAS)…games they should’ve lost.

*2020 Comments: Just 17 points allowed by DAL DST but just 1 sack, no picks and no fumbles recovered or any DST TDs.*

 

 -- Cooper Kupp (6-41-1/6) played 90%+ of the snaps, so Week 14’s low/20 snap count game was a blip. He’s a solid WR2 hope Week 16.

Robert Woods’ (4-17-0/9) hot streak ended, but he did lead all the WRs with 9 targets. He’s a solid WR2 for PPR Week 16.

 

 -- Jared Goff (33-51 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) has 2 TD passes in a game in three straight games but it’s hard to trust him to hit/exceed that against the 49ers this week. The 49ers have been giving up numbers and have several injuries…but it’s not a good matchup for Goff. He’s not great on the road or with a high-pressure front.

*2020 Comments: Week 13-17, Goff was the #7 QB in fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD)...ahead of Dak, Mahomes, Ryan, Rodgers, Wilson among others. A strong finish for Goff.*

 

 -- Amari Cooper (1-19-0/2)… I see no issues, just this game got out of hand and why push Cooper to take meaningless targets/hits in this type of game? He’s fine for Week 16…more than fine vs. PHI.

Michael Gallup (1-6-0/3) similar deal…why push them with a big lead and the run game working so well? Should be fine this week vs. good against the run, bad against the pass Eagles.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

59 = Gallup

50 = Cooper

29 = Cobb

 

70 = Gurley

03 = M Brown



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>