INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.
It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.
Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.
I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.
The schedule is planned to be…
Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).
Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)
Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)
Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)
Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.
We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.
Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…
2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Falcons 29, 49ers 22
The thing I walk away from this game thinking/feeling…The Falcons really battled even with/took it at the 49ers. I don’t see any fear of the 49ers in any of their recent opponents. Shootouts might break out, and the 49ers are good…but it’s not like San Fran is just wrecking teams. The Falcons weren’t really lucky here…they just took it to the 49ers, hung around late and won it last second.
It was 10-10 at the half. SF got up 20-10 with 10 minutes left, and I’m thinking the 49ers are good and can cover the spread…then the Falcons push right back into it and win on the final drive, with a seconds-remaining TD.
The Falcons are 4-2 since their BYE week with wins at NO and at SF. They are 5-9, but 4-2 these last six games and if they win out, they could have a nice 6-2 finish in the 2nd-half of the season…and then they cannot/should not fire Dan Quinn. Quinn rallied his team through injuries and a terrible start, and has throttled some good teams the second half of the season.
The 49ers are a fabulous George Kittle play late in a game to win against the Saints away from a current three-game losing streak. Had they lost to New Orleans…the 49ers would have one quality win on the season – throttling Green Bay. This 49ers team is a bit of a fraud built upon a favorable early season schedule…like the Patriots have been. We project the 49ers to finish 12-4, possibly 11-5…and be the wild card. But they can still win the NFC West and be a #1 seed if they win out. Could go either way. The 49ers are ‘good’ not ‘great’.
*2020 Comments: For some reason, this game just sticks out at me from the 2019 season...the Falcons were a wrecking ball in the second half, and the 49ers were scuffling to the finish with a lot of 'fortuitous' wins.*
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Deebo Samuel (1-29-0/3) and Emmanuel Sanders (2-9-0/4) were huge let downs in what was to be a favorable matchup…or so we all thought. The Falcons have some nice young corners who blanketed the WRs and that chased Jimmy Garoppolo (22-34 for 200, 1 TD/0 INT) into throwing half his passes and over half his completions to George Kittle (13-134-0/17)…working the TE and avoiding the WRs. Credit the Falcons defense to a large degree.
Against the Rams Week 16…we might see a repeated pattern of targeting to Kittle over the WRs.
*2020 Comments: Kittle led all 49ers with 8 targets the following week.*
-- This was also supposed to be a favorable run game scenario/matchup for both teams but the lead RBs really never came through that big…
Devonta Freeman (12-39-0, 2-16-0/3) put in another sleepy performance. He has a great Week 16 matchup with the Jags, but I’m not sure he or this O-Line can make it happen.
Raheem Mostert (14-54-1, 1-5-0/2) was thought to be in a perfect situation and was deemed ‘the man’ by Kyle Shanahan…but he only put up 59 total yards but did get a TD to salvage his FF week. He’s in a decent spot against the Rams this week…but just when you think you have the 49ers backfield flow figured out; a curve ball appears.
-- Austin Hooper’s (3-20-0/6) two games since returning from injury: 2.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 26.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
Hooper has not shown that same pop as pre-his injury, when he was the top PPR TE in fantasy in PPG. Great matchup this week with Jacksonville – he might swing himself back on track Week 16.
2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon
It’s almost time…
Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).
We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.
More details and specific launch date as we get closer
-- What about these two defenses?
Since Week 10, the Falcons’ return from a BYE, here are their fantasy PPG rankings (FantasyPros scoring) in PPG in that span:
#9 = Falcons-DST
#13 = 49ers-DST
Week 16…the falling 49ers-DST faces a solid enough Rams offense. The Falcons get the collapsing Jags at home. The right choice is probably the Falcons-DST, push comes to shove.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Mostert
19 = Coleman
12 = Breida
59 = Julio
57 = Chr Blake
51 = Gage
05 = Zaccheaus
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.
-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.
*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!
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