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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Jags 20, Raiders 16

Date:
August 21, 2020 10:51 AM
August 27, 2020 5:00 PM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


=========================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Jags 20, Raiders 16

 

Another game I thought was ‘in the bag’ as a bettor. The failing, quitting Jaguars going to Oakland to play a Raiders team still with playoff life (going into this game) and playing their last home game at Oakland before the Vegas move. The story wrote itself. The Raiders up 16-3 mid-4th-quarter…this seemed like money.

The Jaguars scored two TDs in the final 5+ minutes of the game because the Raiders are terrible, and Gardner Minshew never gives up. The Jags win and the Raiders season becomes more humiliating by the week.

Oakland was once 6-4, the underdog darlings of the league, and playing KC for the AFC West lead Week 13. They’ve lost four straight and have fallen to 6-8, on their way to a possible 6-10 finish. Whatever happens…good luck, Las Vegas – this is your team/nightmare now. Jon Gruden has gone from possible Coach of the Year…to ‘how the hell is this guy making that much money?’ in a very short span.  

Jacksonville was playing worse than Oakland the past several weeks, and yet they rallied to a victory. The Jags are energized by halting their losing streak and now by the firing of the despised Tom Coughlin. I’m wondering if the Coughlin firing will give the Jags a temporary boost this week at Atlanta. Jacksonville will end the season with 5-6 wins total, but they could win out if they’re lucky and get to 7-9.

*2020 Comments: Keep in mind, Minshew went 6-6 as a starter last year...with a worse roster/more key O-Line injuries than he starts 2020 season with. I like the Jags to take down that 4-5 win 'over' for a bet.*

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- It was so important to get Josh Jacobs (24-89-0, 2-20-0/3) back onto the field to risk further damage to their franchise back…for a loss to the Jaguars. Smart.

Well, now Jacobs is out the ROS and it’s DeAndre Washington’s (6-16-0, 2-6-0/3) backfield the next two weeks. He’s a solid runner playing for his NFL life, so he’s FF-viable. Especially against bad run-stoppers like the L.A. Chargers Week 16. Washington won’t go crazy, but he’ll see 12-18 carries and 2-6 targets per game and you hope he somehow scores a TD within all that.

*2020 Comments: Washington went 23-85-1 as a rusher and 2-21-0/3 in the passing game as the new starter.*

 

 -- If D.J. Chark (DNP) starts practicing in full, I’d feel better about him for Sunday. The fact that he is still limited is worrisome…that’s he’s trying to rush back from a high ankle too fast – and that he’ll be active, start, we’ll play him for FF…and he’s not 100%.

I can’t confidently say that he’ll be a good play or not Sunday…it’s a fluid situation right now.

I do think if DJC is not active…I’m starting to feel better about Chris Conley (4-29-2/8) as the Jags WR to play, if you had to play one. I don’t love Conley (or Dede or Cole) in this wimpy passing game but for the first time this season, in this game, I saw some real nice work/connection between Minshew-Conley.

Not just the two TDs, but the way they went about it, the patterns run, etc. Conley finally looked like more than a deep ball random option here…running real interior routes and coming up big as the game wore on. If Chark is back, it takes some serious steam out of a Conley play.

Keelan Cole (3-76-0/6) just didn't look the part this week.

*2020 Comments: Chark limped back for a 2-28-0/7 line, as he began to ding his 2019 total per game numbers with two weak/not-100% games to the end.*

 

 

*FFM Schedule rest of week…

12/19 THU = Projections update around 9pmET (no TNF game this week)

12/20 FRI = Projections update around 8-9pmET planned

12/21 SAT = Projections update around noonET. No video Q&A (not enough news happening pre-1pm kickoff)

12/22 SUN = Video Q&A show as usual. Projections update 12:30pmET +/-

 

 

 -- I know Leonard Fournette’s (15-42-0, 5-31-0/7) last few weeks have been FF-weak. He’s still the main carry guy…14-15+ carries and 6 or more targets in most every game this season with some double-digit targets in a few games in December. He’s getting the touches; you just have to hope he comes through with the results this crucial week. 

He played 96% of the snaps here. Doug Marrone is likely done. He’s not holding back Fournette for the future. Marrone wants to win now for career record purposes and pride.

 

 -- Darren Waller (8-122-0/10) is now, officially, the Raiders passing game. Everything is setup to work him short or medium and ride him as their main hope. He may not score TDs but he’s going to get a TD’s worth of catches and has 100 or more yards in two of his last 3 games.

In the past 3 games, Waller has averaged: 7.0 rec., 96.3 yards, and 0.0 TDs on 8.3 targets per game.

He’s the #4 TE in PPR PPG the past three weeks, tied with George Kittle.

You have to ride it Week 16, and hope he lands a TD to make it a special event. He’s been great all season, the #5 PPR PPG TE in fantasy all year with a shot to finish #1 with a big game this week.  

 

 -- Gardner Minshew’s (17-29 for 201 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-27-0) numbers in his two games returning as starter…

181.5 passing yards, 1.5 TDs/0.0 INTs, 29.0 rushing yards per game.

He barely has time to throw and is moving around for his life every time he drops back it seems.

Within that – considering the pressure he’s under every drop back, he’s playing fantastic football. If he ever gets an O-Line and a real offensive coach…he’s a star of the future.

The fact that the team has been dead and was dying for 50+ minutes here and he kinda single-handedly scrapped this team back from the dead and won the game late – a testimony to his grit and his leadership. He is the 2020 starter for Jacksonville next season.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

43 = Jacobs

22 = Richard

11 = Washington

 

53 = Dede

50 = Conley

43 = K Cole

11 = Board

 

29 = DeValve

21 = O’Leary 





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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>