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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Pats 34, Bengals 13

Date:
August 18, 2020 11:22 AM
August 24, 2020 9:30 AM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


=============================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Pats 34, Bengals 13

 

The Patriots stormed right down the field to open the game with a quick 7-0 lead. I saw that watching it live and thought…’of course’. What I didn’t expect was for the Bengals to push their way down the field with their first drive , in response, and power run the ball all over the Patriots and immediately tie the score 7-7. Then I really didn’t expect the Bengals to be thwarting the Patriots on offense and Cincy moving the ball and taking a 10-7 lead with 2 minutes before the half.

But, because God is a Patriots fan, the Bengals were holding down the Patriots before half, forced them to punt with under two-minutes left and with enough time for Cincy to maybe get down and score before the half – and then the Bengals muffed the punt, set up the Patriots for an easy field goal to go into halftime with a disappointing, but fortuitous 10-10 tie.

The Andy Dalton pick festival began in the 2nd-half, and the Patriots pulled away and started playing backups to finish off a 34-13 victory. Looked like a blowout, but for the 1st-half the Bengals were pushing the Patriots around…they just started with the turnovers and killed themselves off.  

Cincy is now 1-13 and has a big game against Miami Week 16…lose the game, and they can lock down Joe Burrow (who, if I were him, I’d refuse to go there, but that’s a discussion for January). The Miami-Cincy game is a pick ‘em. I’ll project a Cincy loss and thus the #1 pick should be headed their way.

The Patriots are now 11-3 and face a huge game with 10-4 Buffalo. The Patriots need to win out to hold a #2 seed. If they lose to the Bills this week, everything comes unraveled…the Pats would lose the edge for the #2 seed, and Week 17 is still live for the AFC East title. Pats lose out and Bills win out…the Bills are the shocking AFC East champs and possible #2 seed!!!

*2020 Comments: Rule #1...the Patriots always win the AFC East!

Cincy did get the #1 pick, and I thought Burrow was going to try to force Cincy from not taking him...but the Bengals lucked out and got a franchise QB.*

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- My biggest takeaway here...the Patriots are trying to push N’Keal Harry (2-15-1/4, 2-22-0). Somewhere between desperation and just needing to get him ready, and the Cincy game a scrimmage-like event, we saw more Harry here.

Two jet sweeps in this game.

Just 4 targets, only 2 catches but did connect for a TD, and did have a sweet 32-yard catch called back for an offsides.

Given Julian Edelman (2-9-0/5) is very banged up and hanging on by a thread to be able to play Week 16…the Pats need Harry-Sanu to pick it up. The problem with that for FF is…facing the Bills Week 16 is not a great opportunity to break out or shine.   

 

*FFM Schedule for the rest of week…

12/19 THU = Projections update around 9pmET (no TNF game this week)

12/20 FRI = Projections update around 8-9pmET planned

12/21 SAT = Projections update around noonET. No video Q&A (not enough news happening pre-1pm kickoff)

12/22 SUN = Video Q&A show as usual. Projections update 12:30pmET +/-

 

 -- My other big note here…Joe Mixon (25-136-03-20-0/3) had his way with the Patriots defense running the ball, especially early in the game when it mattered.

Mixon has looked so good running the ball the 2nd-half of the season, doing so on a bad team with a dreadful O-Line.

He faces the 2nd-worst run defense in the NFL Week 16 vs. Miami.

*2020 Comments: And Mixon played sick and had a terrible game...*

 

 -- Tyler Boyd (3-26-0/7) got locked down vs. Stephon Gilmore.

No catches in the 1st-half. Dalton tried to force it to him quickly to open the 2nd-half and Gilmore picked it. Next series, another force to Boyd…and Gilmore got a pick six.

Boyd is a very good, underrated WR and was fighting to the end, but Gilmore was better…and Dalton is no help. This week against Miami, Boyd should be good/great.

*2020 Comments: Boyd went 9-128-2/15...so, yeah, he was good-to-great the next week!*

 

 -- Andy Dalton (17-31 for 151 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) has started three games since returning to the starting lineup…2 TDs/5 INTs…less than 58% Comp. Pct. – but only sacked 3 times in three games.

Translation?

Andy Dalton is mailing it in.

He got benched…so, I’m sure he’s not 100% committed to this 1-3 rookie head coach. He is not returning to Cincy in 2020. He’ll never start again, after Week 16, on purpose, in the NFL. He’s made a ton of money. He can be cut in the offseason for $0 due/cap hit. He’s not likely going to go serve as a backup somewhere. He might be an emergency midseason guy for a contender that sustained an injury…but we are probably seeing the last NFL games of Dalton, and he doesn’t want to be touched/hit on the way out for this sad team so he’s just chucking quick and hoping it lands…and planning his retirement. Week 16 is probably his last NFL game.

*2020 Comments: Dallas gave him a $7M retirement gift for 2020...*

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

56 = Sanu

40 = Edelman

38 = N’Keal

09 = Dorsett

07 = Jakobi

 

44 = Mixon

22 = Gio

 

27 = Michel

25 = White

20 = Rex



******************************

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>