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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Saints 34, Colts 7

Date:
August 22, 2020 9:14 PM
August 30, 2020 9:30 AM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


======================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Saints 34, Colts 7

 

There’s not a lot to say here. The Saints completely destroyed the Colts in this one. The worst game I’ve seen from Indy all year and the Saints were rolling pretty well. The Saints beat the Colts like they do all teams – Brees-Thomas-Kamara-Lattimore. On the other hand, the Colts could barely complete a pass in the game even when it was wide open.

I think the Colts now realize they aren’t as good as they thought they were – because they don’t have an answer at QB, and if you have a weak QB…then you aren’t a viable playoff team. They have issues at QB, RB, TE (nothing dynamic here), and WR (Hilton getting older/broken down suddenly)…and they can’t cover in their secondary with their average or worse corners. The Colts are falling from AFC South team of the future to ‘will people be fired at the end of 2020 if it is a mess again?’

The Colts are 6-8 and may get to 7-8 wins before the season ends. They were once 5-2 and in range of taking a nice lead in the division and it all fell apart – mostly because of Adam Vinatieri…which is a coaching/GM issue more than the kicker himself.

*2020 Comments: What might have been if the Colts had Andrew Luck and didn't have Vinatieri last season...*

The Saints go to 11-3…they sit as the current #2 seed behind Green Bay but with a chance to surpass them if they win out and the Packers stumble. But then San Francisco is not out of the race for the #1 seed over the Saints either (as they beat the Saints a few weeks ago). Seattle is in trouble because the Saints beat them already. A lot left to be determined. It’s huge for the Saints because they are not built to go to Green Bay in January, if they’d have to.

Not much positive/fresh to take away from this game rewatch…it was the same old Saints and a dead Colts team.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- My top note…T.Y. Hilton (4-25-0/9) did not look good to me here. He didn’t look like the TYH of old. Part of it might have been Marshon Lattimore had his way with him while the game mattered. But I think part of it also was – Hilton has lost a step, whether via injury or whatever.

Maybe Hilton will be better/more healed this week and has a bit of a better matchup with Carolina, but I’d be a touch nervous counting on Hilton being his normal self just yet. *2020 Comments: 3-26-0/4 the following week, again...not playing 100% healthy and only 58% of the snaps.*

Also note, Lattimore looks great in coverage – and he likely takes on A.J. Brown this week, and I like Lattimore more than AJB in that battle. *2020 Comments: Lattimore completely shutdown AJB the following week.*

 

 -- Part of my T.Y. Hilton lack of enthusiasm would also be him being teamed with Jacoby Brissett (18-34 for 165 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). In Brissett’s last 7 games, he has 4 TD passes and 3 INTs and most all games under 210 yards passing.

Low volume/output Brissett + not 100% Hilton = who can I trust?

Carolina Week 16 is OK against the pass…it’s the run they cannot stop (#32 in the league). How big a week could the Indy passing game have Week 16?

 

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2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon

It’s almost time…

Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).

We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.

More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.

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 -- I had some word last week that Tre’Quan Smith (1-21-1/1) was in-store for more work this game (and going forward)…and he did get a TD, but he also got the typical treatment of the non-Thomas WRs for the Saints – ignored.

Smith did have another TD in the game, but it got reversed for his offensive P.I.

He’s just a flier DFS play.

*2020 Comments: The forerunner of Emmanuel Sanders in 2020...the Saints #2 WR is always a waste (over a season) with Brees.*

 

 -- Make it nine straight games without a TD for Alvin Kamara (14-66-0, 5-23-0). The team has scored 80 points the last two games and AK still cannot get in on the scoring.

He’s hit 100+ total yards just once in his last 7 games.

I don’t know what’s wrong, but I don’t know how you bench him, especially in PPR, unless you got really strong other plays.

Mike Boone with no Cook/Mattison -- or Kamara Week 16? The answer is probably Boone this week! Strange times…

*2020 Comments: It was true Week 17 (Boone as the play), but not Week 16...as Kamara got back to scoring TDs (2 of them) in Week 16).*

 

 -- I knew Zach Pascal (4-44-0/60 could not be trusted. He’s been erratic with his opportunity all season. This was a good spot with Lattimore on TYH, and yet Pascal put up this dud week. Not all his fault…Brissett is terrible, which is the issue he carries into Week 16 as well.

 

 -- Taysom Hill (2-1-0, 2-42-1/2) has more TDs in the past three games (3) than Alvin Kamara has all season (2). Hill has 6 TDs so far in 2019.

Make sure you’ve checked out my note on him on the dynasty stash ranking board for those in dynasty leagues.

 

 -- If Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (8 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) is cleared for play this week (concussion) he’ll be a top 10 DB threat in IDP with Vonn Bell out. Bell was out for this game as well.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

47 = J Hill

28 = Cook

17 = T Hill

 

25 = Mack

24 = Wilkins

09 = Hines

 

42 = Kamara

22 = Latavius



******************************

 -- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>