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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2020 REWIND: 2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Vikings 39, Chargers 10

Date:
August 21, 2020 12:41 PM
August 28, 2020 5:00 PM

INTRO: Well, we got no preseason football to watch/analyze/hyperventilate over this year…so, my normal August ‘to-do list’ is blown to smithereens.

It feels weird to have teams going to training camps and for it to be August/preseason and there not to be my favorite kind of football to watch – the preseason, where we can see a lot of the new/rookie and lesser used players get to work and I get to go on a journey of discovery combing over the tape studying them. Fantasy Football 2020 is going to be a year of great college and pro scouting in years prior…and that should give me/FFM a huge advantage going into the redraft season and the NFL/FF season.

Still, we have no preseason football to watch/get hyped about. So, for a lack of football to watch this August…I had an idea to take snapshots of the 2019 season and publish certain of my recaps/game analyses from last season every day/every week of this preseason – to re-remember things we were thinking in at the various stages of 2019 season.

I randomly chose four weeks from the 2019 season to ‘replay’ (republish) every day/week up to the start of the season.

The schedule is planned to be…

Week of 8/3: Week 3 (every team would have had at least one home game, and no byes…trends developing).

Week of 8/10: Week 8 (midseason, only two teams on a bye)

Week of 8/17: Week 13 (most fantasy regular seasons ending, no bye week for any team)

Week of 8/24: Week 15 (the end of most fantasy seasons with the FF finals for most Week 16…also, NFL teams starting to change players/give younger players a chance if they were out of the playoffs, etc.)

Week of 9/1: The NFL playoffs from start to finish.

We’ll have plenty of other current fantasy/football content all August, but I wanted to have some semblance of ‘real football’ for us to read/re-remember/consider. 2-3 games per day I will publish as they were published for subscribers in 2019…and I’ll add some lite ‘updated’ 2020 commentary/hindsight as I see fit.

Enjoy a look back, a ‘skim’ of the 2019 NFL/FF season in August/Sept. 2020…


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2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Vikings 39, Chargers 10

 

You could judge this game one of two ways…

1) The Vikings got 7 turnovers and crushed the Chargers. Minnesota is too awesome for LAC.

2) The Vikings were only up 12-10 right before the half, despite getting a few turnovers to that point, and then with LAC driving into the red zone to take the lead with seconds remaining before half…a fumble, the ball bounded around between players, and then it got scooped up and the Vikings took it for a long defensive score for a 19-10 halftime lead. The Chargers had the ball right after half and fumbled the first play again…and the dam kinda broke and Minnesota won the 2nd-half 20-0 on their way to a 39-10 win. Seven turnovers will do that to you.

Minnesota might have won anyway, but seven turnovers glossed over a game where the Vikings weren’t all that sharp, per se. Regardless, you take that road win and thank the football gods. Had Minnesota lost it would have amped the Rams up more on the SNF game (and maybe made a difference) and Green Bay would have had a nice cushion for the division. Now, Week 16 is the showdown…10-4 MIN vs. 11-3 Green Bay…at Minnesota.

It’s not that much of a showdown, really. If Green Bay loses, then they can still win the division by beating Detroit Week 17. The Vikings need to win out and for Green Bay to lose out. Most likely, no matter what happens Week 16…Green Bay is winning the division and the Vikings will be the 6th-seed playing at one of SF-SEA-NO-GB. In order to have any shot at a better wild card seed or winning the division, the Vikings must beat Green Bay this week.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The biggest news from this game, creating the biggest issue for Week 16…Dalvin Cook (9-27-0, 1-16-0/3) left the game with a shoulder injury.

He got tackled in the open field midway into the game and went down innocently enough…but then you could see he landed on his shoulder somewhat and he started writhing around in pain. It did not look good at all. He now has issues related to both shoulders.

Will he play Week 16?

Some are reporting he’s done for the year. Mike Zimmer says he could’ve gone back in. My early sources seem to think he will play, and that there will be an obvious risk of reaggravation…a fairly high one, but because of the magnitude of the game and the wonderful world of painkillers – he’s going to be active and create a lot of drama for fantasy, because they play on Monday night. He may be the key to a win-loss for FF owners, and Cook has all the risk in the world – reaggravation, split workload, pulled back in a big lead/deficit.

Like with most of these shoulder injury RBs…if they are active, you’re forced to start them and hope for the best.

*2020 Comments: Cook was inactive fro Week 16 and did not play the rest of the regular season.*

More FFM’ers seem to be facing Cook this title week, not possessing him (if he’s even involved in your title game). If you own Cook, you need the backups to give you flexibility in case Cook is a late scratch. If you are facing him, you want to get to these Vikings backup RBs to block the Cook owner…back them into a corner. Getting the Vikings’ backup RBs could win you the title because your opponent might take a zero on MNF potentially with Cook.

But which Vikings’ backup RB?

Alexander Mattison (DNP) would be the beyond obvious choice if he were not also injured. Will he play Week 16? Unknown at this point. He wasn’t even practicing last week. There will be a rush to get him ready for this week. If Mattison is active…he’s the top alternative to Cook.

There is a wrinkle in all this…Mike Boone (13-56-2) -- because Boone is more talented than Cook or Mattison, and both Cook and Mattison might be out and force Boone to be the starter. I type ‘force’ because Mike Zimmer does not want Boone playing, not really. He’d rather have Cook with half a shoulder or Mattison limping around than go to the more talented Boone…why, I do not know, but I know it’s 100% true. Ameer Abdullah might get touches to split with Boone, just because Zimmer is Zimmer.

If Cook and Mattison are out, Boone will be a potential RB1 for the week…he’s that talented…even if sharing with Abdullah. If Cook is out and Mattison plays, then Mattison is probably an RB1 (depending on his ankle injury impact). Abdullah is in the picture potentially as well, as a spoiler split with everyone.

I don’t know if any of us will know the Cook-Mattison status by Tuesday night waiver claims. It will probably be a Friday-Saturday-Monday thing.

My assumptions if I had to predict it Tuesday before noon (when I’m writing this)…

1) Cook plays and then who knows how long he goes or how much work load he takes.

2) Mattison has all week and an extra day to get ready. As soon as we see him practicing ‘limited’ early in the week…he’s likely playing. If he hasn’t even practiced early in the week…he’s in doubt.

3) Boone…you should get if Cook-Mattison are both owned, just as a wild card shot at Cook-Mattison both declared out before Saturday or whenever (don’t forget, 3 games Saturday).

4) If the owner has Cook-Mattison, and then they get Boone…stuff Abdullah on your roster if you have the space to – just in case Cook and Mattison out, but then Abdullah named surprise starter (because he’s ‘experienced’). It’s not likely, but just for gamesmanship…if you can spare the spot to do it (assuming this is title game week and no need for extra depth for next week).

 *2020 Comments: Cook-Mattison were both out, and Mike Boone was the lead guy the following week...and I was jacked up sky high for it...and he responded with 11 carries for 28 yards and one catch for five yards, and I looked like a fool and people threw tomatoes at me.

The following week, Boone ran for 148 yards and a TD to redeem me, a bit. And, today, I would absolutely take Boone over Cook or Mattison, if I were an NFL GM taking players off MIN backfield.*

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2020 College Football Metrics Season Coming Soon

It’s almost time…

Time to start the studies, scouting, grading, ranking of the 2020 NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft class. CFM, as always, will have scouting reports on all the top prospects and small-school sleepers and everything in-between as we grade/rank over 600+ prospects by draft day. We’ll cover the East-West Shrine, Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and NFL Draft along the way and build to our weekly Top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings (including IDPs).

We’ll also look back at the 2019 NFL Draft and 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings and re-do the 2019 Rookie Draft to see where we’re at and what items undervalued (now) to target in 2020. So much scouting to do – the Dynasty/Fantasy studies never end and are constantly fluid. It all starts again in early-mid January 2020.

More details and specific launch date as we get closer to the end of the 2019 regular season.

******************************************

 

 -- Melvin Gordon (7-28-0, 5-36-0/7) fumbled early in the game, and that was forgiven the next series. Gordon then fumbled right out of halftime and disappeared the rest of the game. Justin Jackson (5-15-0, 2-2-0/2) got extra work in his place in this blowout.

I assume Gordon will be right back to his normal role this week. Anthony Lynn has no reason to bench/piss off Gordon at this stage. Lynn doesn’t know if he’ll be back as coach, nor if Gordon will be a Charger if Lynn is back. Unless Lynn says different, assume coaches do what they always do – ride their handpicked guy no matter what, even if their shoulder is hanging off their body by a thread.

*2020 Comments: And so Gordon was right back in the next week...for 9 carries and 15 yards rushing. Awesome!!*

 

 -- Remember, when Hunter Henry (2-29-0/2) came back from his injury and was awesome Week 6?

Since Week 7, eight games played, Henry has just 2 TDs.

He’s been under 50 yards in five of his last 7 games, including his last three games under 40 yards.

His last three games of catch counts: 2-2-2.

Favorable matchup this week, but can HH take advantage? Can Rivers take advantage?

*2020 Comments: From Weeks 8-16, Henry was the #14 TE in PPG PPR...trailing Jacob Hollister among others in that span.*

 

 -- Adam Thielen (3-27-0/3) was back from his hamstring injury. He looked fine but only played 51% of the snaps, but the Vikings got up so much that they didn’t need to push him back. I would assume normal game for AT this week, with a low risk of re-occurrence of his hamstring.

The whole passing game was down because: (1) LAC has a top 5 pass defense, and (2) this game was out of hand with turnovers so no need to juice it through the air.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

30 = Ekeler

25 = Gordon

13 = JJax

 

46 = Diggs

33 = Thielen

 

28 = Cook

21 = Boone

15 = Abdullah



******************************

 -- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package is now available – the 2020 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.

PLUS

Our 2020 In-Season coverage (Weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) is available for pre-purchase, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins. Purchase In-Season and Draft Guide as a COMBO to save a few bucks and get all set up in one session.

-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- Our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball subscriptions are still available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

*The FFM App is free on Apple and Android, and is the best way to get instant alerts to new content or breaking inside info hitting. Be sure to have ‘notifications’ enabled for the FFM app!!

*******************************


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>