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2020 REWIND: 2019 Year in Review -- Drew Lock

Date:
May 15, 2020 8:18 AM
May 15, 2020 12:17 PM

INTRO: We’ve done a retrospective on Jarrett Stidham and Gardner Minshew this week, we might as well take a look at another 2019 draft pick with a lot of hope/questions surrounding him for 2020 and beyond. 

For my CFM/FFM review here, I am posting my original Drew Lock scouting report from January 2019. And then my game recaps/notes from his first three NFL starts...looking back at what I was thinking/seeing with him at the pro level. 

The final entry here, my game notes from his Week 15 start vs. KC captures the feeling I’m left with in 2020 for making his/Denver’s offensive projections…’the cool/cocky gunslinger’ vs. ‘is his gunslinging a problem?’. You’ll see what I mean when you get to the end of this piece, as we look back on my Drew Lock thoughts as 2019 unfolded. 

What about Lock’s 2020 projections with all the exciting rookie WRs added (not my words, that’s the mainstream’s emotions growing)? To see my 2020 projection on Lock and how it affects Sutton-Fant-Jeudy-Hamler, you’ll need to be an FFM subscriber!


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From January 2019:


Scouting Report: QB Drew Lock, Missouri

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

 

This is the first QB scouting report that I’m typing out for 2019, so saying this is the most overrated prospect of all the ones I have studied this year might not mean all that much at the moment… but I would not be shocked if it stayed that way through the end. Drew Lock is a pretty weak QB prospect. I believe that with my eyes and our computer scouting models see the same thing.

I did some preview scouting of Lock in the summer of 2018 and then a more full-length research in December 2018 – and I had the same feelings. I cannot believe this guy is being discussed as a top 25-50 overall draft pick.

Where do you want to begin?

You can start out with just looking at and listening to Lock off the field. Nice enough young person to speak with but non-verbally/his optics are not good -- his hair/look is sloppy, and his face appears pudgy, unchiseled/unathletic. He’s comes off as ‘unimpressive’ at a glance. You think ‘look’ plays no factor with the NFL and scouting…and you’d be 100% wrong – I don’t mean ‘pretty’, I mean ‘looks like a franchise QB’. Lock does not look like a franchise QB…not now, not before his agent tries to change the perception/look. What a player looks like doesn’t really matter to me or my scouting models. I’m just noting that his ‘look’ jumped out at me the first time I started studying him and looking at off the field items. It creates a pre-perception right away for people who aren’t going to really crunch the tape or data.

More importantly, it’s the on-field Lock that raises concerns for me…he plays like he ‘looks’ – sloppy, no urgency, ‘low energy’. He’s one of the worst highly-thought-of quarterback prospects I’ve seen in recent years.

When you really study his tape, his problems are obvious and frightening…frightening that people could actually think they see something here for the NFL. Lock spends most of his time totally flat-footed in the pocket, like a statue and just throws all arm/no leg drive…and with very little velocity 95% of the time. The odd thing is he can really rocket the ball when he has time. He has a great arm…when he throws properly. However, especially in muddy situations, too many times Lock looks like he’s trying to throw an egg to a partner in a contest where you have to not break the egg upon transfer. ‘Baby throws’ is what I wrote in my notes. Soft tosses with so little velocity the ball doesn’t spiral it just flops about like a deflating balloon to the intended receiver. Lock either throws a 100 MPH fast ball or a 20 MPH dead duck – on downfield passes not easy bubble screens, etc. It’s a weird thing to watch.

I watched his tape against Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky this season (0-4 record with 1 TD/5 INTs)…and I just stopped looking any further. I was done. I was convinced he was nothing that was going to matter in the NFL. Then I ran the computer scouting model…confirmation of ‘nothing’.

Lock has the on-field ‘look’ at times. He has height (6’3”+). He has pretty good feet, probably a 4.8+ runner…he can scamper a bit if needed. Every once and a while (against better competition) he gets all the time in the world and steps into a throw and zings it OK…he has a quick release. If I cherry picked his five most impressive college throws (usually into coverage but somehow finding the receiver), you’d be impressed with the tall gunslinger. If I showed you all his college throws, it would make you sick to your stomach in short order.

The best-case scenario, the case to be made for Lock as an NFL prospect…is that maybe, just maybe, someone could develop him to use his body to throw/drive the football and go from there, but I just do not think it’s in Lock to have a Joe Montana makeover. I think he is the sloppy mechanical thrower shown on tape, no real desire/ability to fix it, and some of it coming because he’s confused in the pocket reading defenses and loves to just check down and settle for short throws…out of self-defense because his downfield passing skills are so bad.

In this day and age of competent, well-schooled, mechanically sound, instantly-not-overwhelmed-in-the-NFL passers flooding the NFL from the college ranks…Lock is an embarrassment among them. He’s not in that ‘ready-to-go’ category. There are several more polished passers to be had in this draft…’reaching’ for Lock because of occasional ‘big arm’ is not a wise decision – but some NFL team will go there; just like with Josh Allen in 2018.

 

Drew Lock, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm: 

Lock faced five SEC teams with winning records in 2018, he went 1-4 with 4 TD passes and 5 INTs…crushed by Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky – saved a total humiliation among this group with a 3 TDs/0 INT win over Florida.

In 2017, Lock had bigger numbers than in 2018 – 44 TDs/13 INTs (25/8 in 2018). However, 23 TDs/4 INTs came in four games against bottom feeders on his 2017 schedule (Missouri State, U Conn, Idaho, Arkansas). 21 TDs/9 INTs with a 3-6 record against all his other opponents.

Lock threw 96 TD passes in his 49-game career for Missouri…40 of those 96 TDs came in 8 games (5.0 per game) against mostly FCS-level teams/defenses (Eastern Michigan, Delaware State, Missouri State, Idaho, U Conn, Tenn.-Martin, Wyoming, Memphis) – with an 8-0 record. He had a 13-24 record in all his other starts with 45 TD passes (1.2 TD passes per game) and 36 INTs (almost one per game).

His performance relative to the level of competition he faced shows Lock to be a fraud.

 

This report is being written well before the College All-Star games and NFL Combine, so we do not have exact measurables. My projections would be:

6’3.5”/220 with 9.75” hands, 4.85 runner with 7.00 three-cone.

 

 

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Drew Lock Most Compares Within Our System: 

Lock comparing to Josh Allen makes too much sense. I was an instant detractor on Allen the first time (and second and third) times I scouted him. I saw the same strong armed, erratic QB in the pros in 2018 with Allen. All that said – I’d take Allen ahead of Lock, if forced to choose.

At least, Allen has an energy that goes with the chaos. Lock just puts me to sleep with his body language and poor play.

*COMP table only visible on his official CFM scouting report* 

*“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

**A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

  

2019 NFL Draft Outlook:

Lock has a lot of momentum as a late-1st or early-2nd round draft pick right now. I think part of the hype is that this 2019 draft, early on, feels like it is devoid of any real QB talent. Analysts are reaching for something because there’s not much to work with here among the ‘given’ names.

Whenever a top QB prospect has early heat, especially one from the SEC, they typically keep some of the draft momentum throughout the process. I’d be shocked if Lock went in the 1st-round, but then, I’m constantly shocked by NFL scouting. My guess is Lock will fall because there really is no ‘it’ factor with him and there’s plenty of (bad) tape to figure him out on by the time April hits. I’d project Lock as a 2nd-3rd rounder on draft day.

If I were an NFL GM, I would not have Lock on my draft board beyond just for tracking purposes. He’s not a draftable QB in my world. He’s a waste of a draft pick. Too many other QBs that are ready-to-go to waste time trying to ‘fix’ Drew Lock.

 

NFL Outlook:   

Will be drafted to be a developmental backup for an NFL team. He’ll get a couple of years behind an established QB and eventually just fade from memory and fade from the league without any real impact by year 3-4-5 of his journey.

 

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2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 13 – Broncos 23, Chargers 20

 

In a game no one cared about at 4pmET with no real NFL implications…the Broncos won a game on a last play hail mary type play that actually drew a pass interference. Shocking…we actually call legit penalties late in a game. I thought we only excessively called penalties for the first 57 minutes of the game and then locked the flags in a briefcase at the two-minute warning. It was a legit call.

The refs get a lot of grief, but I’d love to see a losing coach get up after a game and say, “I hated it, but it was a penalty. The refs made the right call.” They made the right call here. Anthony Lynn can cry all he wants. I get the, “They never call that at that point in the game!” feeling, but two wrongs don’t make a right. The call in question was a pass on point to the WR and as Courtland Sutton tried to move after it he was run into by the defender. If they don’t make the call, the other side of the field complains the next 24-48 hours about the calls not being made. Someone always is up in arms about something over close losses. You can never satisfy an entire field of players or viewership of fans in a game. It is what it is.

This game was 17-3 Denver in the 1st-half and it looked like the Broncos would run away with it, but they curled up in a ball and tried to let the clock win them the game…the Chargers came back to get it to a 20-20 tie with seconds remaining, and then the shocking ending for a Denver win. It wasn’t pretty but Drew Lock won his debut.

The Chargers fall to 4-8…ANOTHER disappointing season, only this time people ARE asking questions about Philip Rivers’s culpability in all this. LAC will finish around 5-11, 6-10 at best. Season over.

With the win, Denver jumps up 4-8 and sends LAC into last place in the AFC West…the Broncs sweeping the 2019 series. Half their wins this year are against the Chargers. Denver looks like they will finish 5-11 or 6-10 as well.

Two decent teams who had chances to be contenders, but they lost more of their close games than they won. Onto 2020…

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The main reason for the rewatch…scouting Drew Lock’s (18-28 for 134 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) debut.

It wasn’t terrible, but not great either. Lock started hot…and by hot, I mean -- lucky. A few good, unpressured throws and then what can you say about Courtland Sutton’s one-handed 26-yard TD catch to start the scoring? If Sutton doesn’t come down with that pass, Lock might have had barely over 100 yards passing and one TD without it.

When Lock had time…he throws a great fastball. He seems like he sees the field fine under no duress, like his college tape when I studied him – but when the pressure comes, when things get muddy…Lock was trying to throw sidearm and threw some passes into coverage, which is what he did in college. Basically, college Drew Lock showed up here in his pro debut. And that’s not terrible because he could’ve just been a joke in his debut…but he was not terrible, as a compliment.

I would target him with opposing DSTs at this point because the Broncos protection isn’t great and Lock tries to wing it into tight spaces because it works for him plenty but in the pros it won’t. Sutton can’t bail him out all the time.

 

 -- Speaking of Courtland Sutton (4-74-2/5) a mega-talent but now we got Kenny Golladay headwinds coming.

Not a great QB to work with.

Can’t run the ball effectively because of a poor O-Line.

Conservative offense when they get any type of lead or are close in the game, trying to win/not lose by the clock.

Will get double teamed all the time because the Denver pass game is Sutton and nothing else…just fling it to Sutton. Teams are not afraid of Tim Patrick and DeSean Hamilton.

When all the above happens, you get games like this…5 targets, and 1-2 miracle grabs to make a game of it. I’m not sure we can sit Sutton on matchup or any other reason now, he’s too talented, but he’s not a given in the passing game…but, like Golladay, they seem to find a way.

I think Sutton has moved into a top 5-7 WR in the NFL now. A superstar lost playing in the Mountain time zone for a dull team.

 

 -- Terrible FF game for Noah Fant (1-5-0/3) but he was close to some action. Had a red zone shot just missed and a deep sprint one-on-one coverage thrown offline by Lock. They tried to use Fant as the Sutton alternative, but it just didn’t happen/connect.

Not saying something special could happen here, but I’m not writing him off completely the next few weeks…but not sure how you could use him any week ahead with any confidence.

 

 -- Phillip Lindsay (17-58-0, 3-4-0/3) looks fine/normal running the ball…he just has no real space to maneuver. This offense has gotten so stiff it’s killing Lindsay…six of his last 7 games with 70 or fewer yards rushing and just 1 TD in his last 6 games.

Since the Broncos announced to the world he would see more touches, Lindsay has played about the same percentage of snaps with a few more carries on average and continued lower output. Not sure how it changes ahead.

 

 -- Philip Rivers (20-29 for 265 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) didn’t play a bad game, but he wasn’t anything great. I just felt, for the first time, he played differently…had a different demeanor. I think it’s the first-time criticism has rained down on him from all places in several years. People are calling for Tyrod Taylor to replace him. His contract is coming up. Rivers is a suddenly unhappy employee that the organization has turned on, kinda. He’s not seen as a building block anymore…now, he’s the problem. He’s likely gone…and he knows it and might be looking forward to it.

And Rivers, above all things, has been a petulant, coddled baby. Now, that he’s not pacified by analysts, the organization, and fans – it looks/feels jolting to him. He’s not used to being uncoddled and being the target of mostly criticism of his play. It all happened in about a two-week span after years of pampering.

The Chargers plan, knowing this was bound to happen, given Rivers’s age? Sign Tyrod Taylor as a backup, a totally different style QB – and their youth movement option drafted this year was Easton Stick.

I wrote that last line as a cutting remark, but guess what? Easton Stick is a 6’1”/220 and runs a 4.6+ with elite punt returner/WR three-cone time of 6.65. Might he be a ‘our Lamar Jackson’ option for LAC? He’s too thin framed with too weak an arm to pull it off for long…but when everyone in the NFL wants their ‘Lamar’, Stick might get a look at that style.

 

 -- Remember when Hunter Henry (2-10-0/3) returned from his injury and had 8 catches for 100 and 2 TDs in his return game, and everyone lost their minds at the Henry re-breakthrough?

In the six games since, Henry has just 1 TD and two games with 70+ yards receiving. He’s been 30 or fewer yards in two of his last 3 games.

 

 -- I could see the LAC-DST mattering Week 14 at Jacksonville IF Nick Foles were starting, but the switch to Minshew lowers the sack potential and that combined with the Chargers defense being ‘meh’ for the most part…it’s a lukewarm option Week 14.

 

 -- Man, Michael Badgley (2/3 FG, 2/2 XP) almost made me look like a genius. He had a solid game, but I had him as the kicker to grab to avoid the wind/rain issue guys Week 13 – Badgley being a solid kicker and kicking AT Denver for the altitude/distance kicks.

Badgley lined up for a 55-yarder because of the altitude and nailed it distance-wise but it drifted and hit the crossbar and went away instead of in. +5-6 points right out of many of our hands. Fantasy is like real football…watching kicks soar through the sky with our hearts beating – where else can you get a rush like that, legally? All from a stupid kicker!

 

 =======================================

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 14 – Broncos 38, Texans 24

 

This game was 31-3 at one point for the Broncos. It ended mercifully at 38-24.

Everyone was shocked and amazed at this, which seems reasonable to feel…Denver, of all teams, drops 31 points on Houston in 35 minutes of play at Houston in a critical game for the Texans?

This was the type of game that could happen to any NFL team…it’s what makes the NFL great week-to-week. Denver played well, good enough to win…but they had to be the luckiest team in the NFL this week. They were due for it because they’ve been so unlucky this season, but the first drive/TD pass…ill-advised, covered receiver but the pass sails right through and then Noah Fant makes a remarkable catch. The following drive, Houston gets picked off but as the defender is getting tackled, and everyone is slowing down for the expected end of the play…he pitches it to a DB who then races for a 70-yard return TD.

A game that should’ve started out 3-3, ended up 14-0 Denver…and the momentum turned, and it kept getting worse from there. Every 3rd-down and long, Drew Lock seemed to hit in on deep prayers answered. He threw approx. five passes that should’ve been picked but were probably 4-for-5 for 100+ yards and a TD in the real results.

It was just one of those games for Houston. Bad time for it too.

The Texans lose their cushion over Tennessee with this loss, falling to 8-5 and a tie with the Texans. Houston has the inside path to the division – they just need to split with Tennessee and then there other game in between the two Tennessee affairs is at Tampa Bay, while the Titans host the Saints. The edge in the final three games is with Houston, but it’s by no means clear and obvious. I’ll project a Houston 10-6 finish, with the Tennessee split of their two games ahead…and the Texans win the AFC South.

Denver is now 5-8. They should be 7-6 and in the playoff hunt, but they’ve been hard luck/last second losers on 3-4 separate occasions. If they can beat KC this week, not out of the question, then they could win out and finish 8-8. They will likely wind up 7-9.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Most all of my player notes here pertain to Drew Lock (22-27 for 309 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…

1) Many lucky throws here. Very lucky he didn’t have 2-5 picks in this game. He’s been flirting with danger for weeks…I think the ‘bad’ game is coming within the next two weeks.

2) Lock is not playing skittish or in fear. Quite the contrary…he’s playing confident/borderline cocky, and it’s going to get him in trouble ahead. He thinks this is too easy, because it has been so far…and that’s his M.O. for me – too cool gambler, that once things turn on him, the throws stop sailing through unbelievably…he’ll implode on himself under all the criticism.

Ugly days are ahead, but so far he’s avoided it.

The Chiefs-DST may be the beneficiaries Week 15.

 

 -- I worry that the ugly days ahead are going to affect Courtland Sutton (5-34-0/7) too hard for FF purposes to finish 2019.

I mean, Sutton’s the greatest and he just needs passes flung to him and he’ll do the rest…but, 5 and 7 targets in two games with Lock starting, 73 and 34 yards. He got 2 TDs Week 13 to make it work but no TDs here.

I like fantasy WRs who are working with clicking offenses in good situations.

This week, we get ready-to-fail Lock, in the cold, on the road versus and emerging KC defense.  

I got a bad feeling about this…

But we’re really at the point of starting Sutton and praying every week, unless you got real, viable other options.

 

 -- Noah Fant (4-113-1/4) flashed his all-star FF skills in this game. Great TD grabs, wonderful short catch and bully runs after the catch. He was awesome, and then he got hurt…and he’s questionable for Week 15.

If Fant is out, that hurts Lock and it hurts Sutton. And I think Fant is going to be out, but we’ll see.

A healthy Fant is a TE1 this week. He’s looking better and better the last few games, really starting to play with confidence.

 

 -- Will Carlos Hyde (14-73-0, 2-5-0/3) ever have a good FF game again this season?

He’s scored 1 TD his last 7 games and rushed for more than 75 yards in a game twice in that span. He’s having the same game every week…10-15 carries, 60-80 yards, no TDs…and a catch.

With the money on the line, I hope you have better options…but he is getting the touches and is due for a short score.

 

 -- Duke Johnson’s (6-40-0/8, 1-5-0) target counts and pass game activity are rising the last few weeks. Week 13 was a season-high 6 targets and then he set a new season-high here with 8 targets.

I’d play Duke over Hyde in a week, just hoping for that Duke Johnson poor man’s James White type of game.

 

 ==================================

 ‍

2019 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Analysis: Week 15 – Chiefs 23, Broncos 3

 

Strange game. The snow picked up more than expected and the game was played in a steady, light snow that accumulated on the field. It made visibility tough and footing even tougher. Within that, the Chiefs played a lot of the game like there was no snow…I mean, Patrick Mahomes looked as good as ever in the worst conditions. Honestly, it may have been one of the best QB passing performances of 2019.

Mahomes was 27-of-34 (79.4% Comp. Pct.) and was an assassin in terrible field conditions. On the other side of the ball, the weather made Denver look like a passing game you’d expect in this condition – Drew Lock was less than 50% Comp. Pct., his receivers were slipping and tentative moving around a lot and there were plenty of slick ball drops. What Mahomes did here was almost supernatural.

The Chiefs got up 9-0 quickly and then led 15-3 at the half and then the game just kinda chipped away in the 2nd-half…only KC scoring a TD and Denver shutout -- a 23-3 solid win for KC.

The Chiefs, to me, are the only team that can take down the Ravens for the Super Bowl rep of the AFC. KC is either going to be a #2 or #3 seed, which means they will likely play the Patriots one way or the other in the 2nd-round – and it doesn’t matter if it is at Foxboro…KC is winning that game. The Chiefs and Ravens are on a collision course for the AFC Championship, and if there is one guy who can keep up with, chase from behind on, and take down Lamar Jackson…it’s Patrick Mahomes.

The two worst case scenario teams for the Ravens to have to face to get to the Super Bowl are Buffalo and Kansas City…and I think they’re going to face both of them if they march ahead to the title.

Denver falls to 5-9. A ‘what might have been’ season. If you gave Denver three more points in every loss this season…they would’ve flipped 3 losses to wins and been 8-6 right now. They had every last second win/loss chance go against them this season (except Wk13). This is going to be a dangerous wild card type team in 2020…possible threat to KC for the AFC West with a fortuitous defensive personnel offseason.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Let me just start with this… I’m very impressed with Drew Lock (18-40 for 208 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) in his first three starts in the NFL. I mocked this pick by Denver, and there is a reason Lock fell in the draft and why we graded him mediocre/poor for the draft, but what I’ve seen in the NFL so far, and even in this game, is the best Drew Lock possible.

What I love about what I’ve seen from Lock – the sheer confidence playing the position. He has no fear. Most rookies play a bit tentatively, erratic out of the gates, but Lock is just letting it rip with confidence…he’s controlling the tempo and the team.

There is a good and bad Lock…

The good = Has some Brett Favre in him. A gunslinger. Great arm and mechanics. Plays with energy. Not afraid to take shots.

The bad = Lock gets overconfident, bordering on Baker Mayfield on-field arrogant. Thinks he can make any throw, any time…and Mayfield is much better and precise at that than Lock. In this game, Lock made some excellent throws…made them look so simple. He also flirted with 3-4-5 interceptions, because when he gets hot, he thinks he’s unstoppable and forces into places he shouldn’t.

I kept thinking, as I rewatched this tape – who does THIS good version of Lock remind me of? I was thinking Favre. I wondered if it could be a different version of Mayfield. Then it hit me…and this is going to be a challenge for his career. Lock is Jameis Winston.

Winston throws with no conscience. Winston throws into coverage at will…sometimes like he doesn’t see the 3-4-5 guys in front of his receiver. Winston throws a pick to start a game, the fans boo…then Winston goes out and leads a nice drive after that, like nothing happened. Winston will throw 3-4 picks in a game and be down 20+ points with 7 minutes left and then add on an extra 200+ yards of passing a junk TD or two to cut a huge loss to a medium loss. Some QBs shrink when things don’t go their way…not Winston. Not Lock.

The difference is…because the media endorsed Winston, all his bad is swept under the rug/joked about and the moment he has 2-3 hot games (like current) everyone thinks the magic man has finally arrived. The media is going to be against Lock, definitely not with him like they are with Winston. When Lock makes mistakes, has multiple picks…everyone will turn on him as too sloppy. No one will laugh about ‘good Lock’ and ‘bad Lock’. Vic Fangio wouldn’t put up with Winston for two seconds…he’s going to have a hard time doing so with Lock. In Tampa Bay, Winston has run the organization for years because he was SUPPOSED to be great, so everything was built around him and excuses made, and coaches brought in to coddle/fix him. Fangio is not one to suffer Lock’s ways for long.

Fangio could be great for Lock, or it could be a nightmare. Fangio is going to try to break the wild stallion QB…the bucking Bronco, if you will. Lock will either become the best version of himself under it…or he’ll fight it and it will be a choppy relationship for the next 2-3 years.

All that to say…I think any of our/my fears of Lock being bad for Sutton-Fant – I’m past that. I want Lock-Sutton to be Winston-Evans/Godwin…that would be FF-fine by me. If Denver never has a winning record/playoff team because of it, like TB with Winston…I don’t FF-care.  

How much Fangio tries to micromanage Lock is the big 2020 question. Lock just needs to be Lock, but Fangio is going to want to McDermott-Josh Allen it. Defense and run game, and less Lock. But if Fangio gives into it some…Lock might be OK, and better for FF than the NFL.

 

 -- Speaking of Sean McDermott…he might be the 2nd-best coach/personnel evaluator in the entire NFL and it’s flying right under our noses. Why mention that here?

When McDermott got to Buffalo, one of the first things he did was dump Sammy Watkins (3-49-0/4) and Reggie Ragland. This season, out of nowhere, McDermott just dropped LeSean McCoy (6-16-0). All three of these players are currently sucking/killing the Chiefs from the inside.

The Rams are dying with all the ex-Jaguar 1st-round pick busts (Bortles, Fowler) + the great Jalen Ramsey. The Chiefs are wasting time and money with McDermott’s castoffs.

Darwin Thompson (8-38-0) led the team in carries here, but it was even work between he and McCoy and Ware. There is no reliable Chiefs RB…which may be the thing that upends them in the playoffs.

 

 -- Speaking of RBs, I have no idea what the Broncos are doing with Phillip Lindsay (7-32-0, 0-0-0/2) and Royce Freeman (5-12-0, 4-14-0/4) – two of the most talented RBs, one of the great potential duos in the NFL…and they’ve done little all season.

I think the O-Line is to blame more than they are. This is a bad O-Line that’s been ravaged by injury of late.  

  

 -- With Sammy Watkins a fraud, I would’ve thought Mecole Hardman (1-10-0/2) might have progressed more with touches and production in this offense…but it’s like he’s not even there. Mecole is a weak WR technician, but his athleticism warrants bubbles and jet sweeps, but he’s seeing very little of that.

If an NFL team hires Chiefs O-C Eric Bieniemy as their head coach this offseason it will be one of the epic fails of the offseason. Just because you’re near Patrick Mahomes…doesn’t make you the reason for his success. So…get ready for your new head coach, Washington Redskins!!

 

 -- How about these two DSTs for Week 16?

Denver has held opponents to 20 or fewer points in six of their last 10 games. They are a top 10 points allowed and pass defense in the NFL. They are talented in spots, well coached, but hit with a ton of injuries. They’ve also faced mostly playoff teams recently. Four of their last 5 games are with current playoff teams. Facing the Lions this week will be the easiest single game they’ve had this season. Their prior easiest was facing Mariota-led Tennessee…which they shut out in Week 6.

The Kansas City defense has stormed into the top 10 party…basically tied with Denver at #10 for points allowed and passing yards. KC’s defense has held their last four opponents to 17 or fewer points in a game. They face the sluggish Chicago offense this week. I’ll take it.


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>