2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#1 Ronald Jones)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#1) RB Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay
2019 Commentary = Here comes the Ronald Jones bullet train, right on time from the football establishment. They cannot accept, will not accept they were wrong on him…so, here come all the stories of how great he looks in camp, and how the new coach is a great impact, and then no one likes Peyton Barber anyway (not ‘sexy’ like Ron Jones) – all leading to FF lemmings following the herd back into Jones. They all somehow forgot it was Jones’s play that got him so far sunk…almost cut. He’s not built for the NFL. His pre-Draft measurables were poor. His style was as an inside runner at USC, but he’s built like a twig…so real college defenses and the NFL blow him up running in the interior. He just doesn’t fit the NFL as a starter. If he didn’t have draft status, he’d have been cut last season and never picked up by another team. 50+ other RBs deserve the shot Jones is getting.
I’m sure Jones gets another push…that’s how the NFL works when the media is dictating the talent and the coaches follow along like dopes. However, even with more touches and even if he has a decent moment in the preseason – this won’t end well for FF. Ronald Jones is the DeVante Parker of ‘hope’ for the football mainstream. Which means I need to add Peyton Barber to the 2019 Undervalued Report, because Jones is moving up in ADP fast and forcing Barber down the past few weeks with the hot air headlines on Jones.
2020 Ruling = I’ll take the ‘win’ here.
Jones ended up the #33 RB in PPR PPG in 2019. A mild win. Jones had started to race into the top 30 in some redrafts in August as the presumed Tampa Bay back that would emerge over Peyton Barber and become a fantasy star. RoJo had a few moments in 2019 but never really clicked into a legit FF performer…so, I was right.
Where I was wrong was – I had mocked Jones for two years prior (at USC and at TB as a rookie) but in-season 2019, I saw a different Jones…a much better, more passionate, tough running style I’d not seen before. I acknowledged it in-season, but still knew they weren’t turning the backfield over to him.
So, ‘yes’ the hype did not really unfold to reality…but I’m also willing to say the tape looked different in 2019 and I’m not going to knock him mercilessly as I did before. That’s what watching tape and studying is about – getting it right...not no study, hold on to an original position based on what others said, and never change. The NFL, fantasy…it’s a fluid market like the stock market.
What about 2020? You’ll have to see our Draft Guide rankings to know…
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
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