2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#11 Seattle DST)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#11) Seattle Seahawks-DST
2019 Commentary = I do not think the Seattle defense is bad…or good. Just average. Nothing special last year, and then they lost their 2nd-best defensive player this season – traded Frank Clark. It’s a very bland defense with a great image…people still think highly of them from back in the ‘Legion of Boom’ days. You still see them being drafted among the first 10-12 defenses just because of reputation. You could argue whether they are average or good, but they are not great…but the issue is more average or good defenses faces this schedule out of the gates (listed by QB): Dalton, Ben, Brees, Kyler, Goff, Baker, LJax, Ryan, Winston, Jimmy G. You want to run into that Week’s 2-6…Weeks 2-10? You get a break with Winston and maybe Dalton? If you stream any old DST…don’t pick Seattle, please.
2020 Ruling = Razor thin ‘win’.
A year ago, Seattle’s defense still had that mystique of the Legion of Boom era…and thus their DST would be taken on the top 8-12 defenses for 2019 redraft based on the reputation. I cautioned against that for the reasons stated above. The Seattle DST started out #15 in PPG the first six weeks…better than I thought but not a DST1/top 10 level. They never jumped into the DST1 discussion all season…they flirted around #12-13-14-15 all season and were used as a streamer, but as a stable DST they were not that…and that was our call, so we were ‘right’…just not as ‘right’ as I expected. A win is a win.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
#9) James Washington (win) 8-1-0
#10) James Conner (win) 9-1-0
#11) Seattle DST (win) 10-1-0
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