2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#12 Aaron Rodgers)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#12) QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
2019 Commentary = Never bet against Aaron Rodgers!!! But I think I might start to do so in 2019. Not that he isn’t great, but the guy had a great/amazing fantasy year like 8 years ago, and he had been best in breed for a while, back when there was no great QBs hitting the NFL. Now, college football is spitting out high-end passers all over the place. Plus, CFB is starting to produce the runners who can throw OK or good or great…mediocre QBs but they can run, which is good for fantasy output. Rodgers is becoming a fantasy dinosaur, kinda like Tom Brady and Drew Brees are becoming. It’s not that they are ‘bad’…it’s just that better have come along for fantasy purposes. However, many people want to distrust the young QBs and see Rodgers as the best of the old guard who can be a top 3 QB shot for them to keep up with the Mahomes’s of the world. I think those days are gone…really his old numbers are more #5+ QB for years (comparing it to recent years), it’s just there wasn’t any better QBs…now there’s Mahomes, Mayfield, Goff, Kyler…and the runners Watson, Lamar, Dak. You don’t need Rodgers anymore. He tracks to 3-4-5 in redrafts on his name, his legend not his reality. Add to that concerns about the new offense fitting Rodgers and look out.
2020 Ruling = Big time win.
This time last year, Rodgers was trading as a top 3-5 QB for fantasy redraft…assumed greatness as he has been more than not, but we thought he was tailing off the past two years and so many other options rising that it was ridiculous to pay the price to have him be your costly redraft QB to start and run for 2019 season.
Rodgers was pretty rough for FF. He ended up #15 in PPG among QBs last year. Aside from 1-2 big games, he was a QB3 or worse a lot of the time. Weak season and we avoided it, and that was the right call.
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
#9) James Washington (win) 8-1-0
#10) James Conner (win) 9-1-0
#11) Seattle DST (win) 10-1-0
#12) Aaron Rodgers (win) 11-1-0
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
Our 2020 In-Season coverage (weekly rankings, all game reports, video shows, special reports, etc.) will be available for pre-purchase with the Draft Guide launch, so you’re ready/signed up for when the season begins.
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-- College Football Metrics statistically scouts/grades 600+ NFL Draft prospects, and deeper studies 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. Special Devy scouting/reports in the summer. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.
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