2020 REWIND: Our Preseason 2019 Overvalued Report Review (#13 JuJu Smith-Schuster)
INTRO: In preparation for our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, I like to go back and look at the prior year’s reports and review/analyze what worked and what didn’t on our projections/predictions we gave before the season started. Two of my favorite reports in our draft guide package are the Undervalued and the Overvalued Reports.
Two reports identifying players that I and my computer models see as much more valuable (or not) compared to the public valuation (in ADP in actual rankings/drafts taking place). They are great reports to plan redrafts around or for making trades in Dynasty or Redraft leagues already drafted.
We list about 30+ names on each report each preseason, and they are ‘fluid’ all preseason/summer – as the market/ADPs are changing we update their over/undervalued rankings as needed and we’ll add/drop players as we go along. The first official 2020 reports with the top 20+ overvalued and undervalued commentary/our case and the data are the first reports made available when we open up the draft guide season (approx. June 1st).
All month of May, I’m working on the initial list of players and commentary for the initial 2020 group of over and undervalued – so, with the over/undervalued reports in mind, I want to highlight a player a day from each report from our 2019/last year’s end of preseason report…looking at the top 15 players from each report that we ended the preseason with and sharing the commentary/logic we had then, and adding new commentary for judging how good of a call (or not) it was a year later.
We’ll start with our #1 and work to #15, looking back at one of each per day, adding new commentary and keeping a running tally of ‘wins’ and ‘losses’ on the call…and also ‘neutral’ if we see where it would be unfair to take a win or loss on the situation. You can see if you agree with our assessments and what our record on such things might have been.
One player assessment and new commentary from the undervalued and one from the overvalued will be released every day starting May 17th to take us up to June 1st and the new Draft Guide season. Enjoy this look back in time to get ready for 2020!
The daily release of the Undervalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10amET.
The daily release of the Overvalued report review – will post every day (May 17-June 1) at 10pmET.
#13) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh
2019 Commentary = Add me into the crowd who is a little suspicious of JuJu just becoming Antonio 2.0 just because Antonio is gone and there is a void to fill for those AB targets. I’m also part of the crowd who wonders if JuJu’s WR1 numbers last season were, in part, a free ride off the coverage attention Antonio Brown got. I’m not hardcore against JuJu, I just never saw him as great…more so just a ‘good’ talent + opportunistic with Ben/AB, and a lack of anything else exciting in the Pittsburgh passing game. However, he could get a nice ride with Ben again…in the same way I don’t understand why Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas get all the heavy targeting they do…while Tyreek Hill gets used as a decoy often by Andy Reid. It’s more a hang up with me than anything else, but I see JSS is already priced for greatness…and I see all the other top ADP WR1s and totally get why they are there but I pause when I see JuJu’s name among them. It might be a lack of vision by me, but I’d rather go with a cheaper Mike Evans or T.Y. Hilton before chasing JuJu.
2020 Ruling = Easy win.
JuJu started out slowly, then got hurt, then never really got close to the preseason hype at all – he was a total disaster for the top 10-15 overall price some were willing to pay. He was behind Diontae Johnson and James Washington in PPR PPG for the 2019 season. JuJu was a near bust for 2019 (for the heavy price people paid), and we saw the signs coming and avoided it!
2019 OVERVALUED PRESEASON REPORT TOP 15 (win-loss-neutral record on ‘the call’):
#1) Ronald Jones (win) 1-0-0
#2) Kalen Ballage (win) 2-0-0
#3) T.J. Hockenson (win) 3-0-0
#4) Delanie Walker (win) 4-0-0
#5) Damien Williams (win) 5-0-0
#6) Miles Sanders (loss) 5-1-0
#7) Robby Anderson (win) 6-1-0
#8) David Montgomery (win) 7-1-0
#9) James Washington (win) 8-1-0
#10) James Conner (win) 9-1-0
#11) Seattle DST (win) 10-1-0
#12) Aaron Rodgers (win) 11-1-0
#13) JuJu Smith Schuster (win) 12-1-0
-- The 2020 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide package will be available soon (June 1st target date) the 2020 player scoring projections, valuations/rankings, special reports, commentary on 500+ players, IDP rankings, etc. -- all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right up to kickoff.
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